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phil flynn ???

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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 09:44:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell Jun Crude 11830 stop 11930
Long June Heating 32400 raise stopped to 32600!!
Sell June Heating oil at 33300 stop 33500
Sold June RBOB apprx 30300!! Stop 30500!
Long June Natural gas on the rollover at apprx 1077 stopped apprx 1080!!
Buy June Natural Gas 1060 stop 1030

Update: Phil is stopped into his crude oil trade above, and is actually in the money for once, with the market a little soft this morning. If I were him, I would take the money and run before something in the headlines happens and it takes off again. He's up by $1200 or so.

His RBOB short sale above is also live, and he is in the money on that too. He's up about $400.
The blind pig theory is in play this morning. We will see if he takes some money off the table today.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 01 May 2008, 10:41:55

Update: If Phil's crude oil trade got filled, he is still live at 112.78, which means he is up by 5.52, for a total win of $5520.
If his RBOB trade got filled, he is still live at 2.89, which means he is up on that one by $5880. So, $11100 on both of those trades, assuming he is smart enough to take some money off the table.

He must be excited. He stopped updating his website about five days ago, and also put in a bold face disclaimer to the effect that if you follow this you are on your own.
Hopefully it won't go the other way on him. Poor guy, we have beaten him up enough , but apparently not as much as his normal customers.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 05 May 2008, 14:35:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')topped on short June crude from apprx 11830 at apprx 11930. Sell June crude at 11970 - stop 12070.
Stopped on long June heating oil from apprx 32400 at apprx 32600! Sell June heating oil at 30700.
Stopped on short June RBOB from apprx 30300 at apprx 30500. Sell June RBOB at 30800 - stop 31000.
Buy June natural gas at 1060 - stop 1030

Phil was on vacation last week, and as a result of stupidly leaving a lot of live trades open when he left, he had the following things happen to him:
a. His short crude oil trade at 11830 which was up by over $5000 went the other way on him, and stopped him out at $11930 for a loss of $1000.
b. His short RBOB trade above was stopped out at a 2-cent loss for a total loss of $840. He was up over $5K on this trade as well (briefly)
c. His new crude oil short sale is live at 11970, but was nearly stopped out earlier today. His new RBOB short sale at 308 has not been filled yet, nor has is new heating oil or natural gas trades. These trades are set quite far out of the money and will not be filled unless there is a dramatic reversal in the marketplace.

By my count, he is now at -$19,440. I assume he took his family on a cheap vacation.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Mon 05 May 2008, 19:07:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')topped on short June crude from apprx 11830 at apprx 11930. Sell June crude at 11970 - stop 12070.
Stopped on long June heating oil from apprx 32400 at apprx 32600! Sell June heating oil at 30700.
Stopped on short June RBOB from apprx 30300 at apprx 30500. Sell June RBOB at 30800 - stop 31000.
Buy June natural gas at 1060 - stop 1030

Phil was on vacation last week, and as a result of stupidly leaving a lot of live trades open when he left, he had the following things happen to him:
a. His short crude oil trade at 11830 which was up by over $5000 went the other way on him, and stopped him out at $11930 for a loss of $1000.
b. His short RBOB trade above was stopped out at a 2-cent loss for a total loss of $840. He was up over $5K on this trade as well (briefly)
c. His new crude oil short sale is live at 11970, but was nearly stopped out earlier today. His new RBOB short sale at 308 has not been filled yet, nor has is new heating oil or natural gas trades. These trades are set quite far out of the money and will not be filled unless there is a dramatic reversal in the marketplace.
By my count, he is now at -$19,440. I assume he took his family on a cheap vacation.

with the price of gasoline and recent trading performance,
he probably took a Rickshaw vacation with this family, taking turns between him and his wife pulling the cart.... doing his part to alleviate the peak oil dilemma which he does not believe in
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 06 May 2008, 08:36:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')ell June crude at 11970 - stop 12070.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ight, sweet crude for June delivery rose to a record $120.93 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Tuesday.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'June 2008 119.86 119.90 119.90 120.93 119.44 119.97 -0.11')
Another day, another crude oil trade stopped out because the market got away from Phil.
Another $1000 loss. -$20,440
RBOB only got up to 307 last night, temporarily depriving Phil of the opportunity to lose even more money. Yahoo
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 06 May 2008, 11:34:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell June RBOB at 30800 - stop 31000.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')une 2008 3.1137 n/a 3.0480 3.1163 3.0400 3.0529 +0.0608

Phil's RBOB short sale has been filled, and then summarily stopped out at a loss of 2 cents, or $840.
-$21,280.
Neither his natural gas nor his heating oil trades are close to being filled, thank goodness. Natural gas is up 17 cents today.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Tue 06 May 2008, 17:41:20

This vacation is really helping him out by keeping him alway from
his dumb trades.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Wed 07 May 2008, 14:52:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')topped on short June crude from apprx 11970 at apprx 12070. Sell June crude at 12070 - stop 12170.
Sell June heating oil at 33000 - stop 33200.
Sell June RBOB at 30800 - stop 31000.
Buy June natural gas at 1060 - stop 1030.

Phil's new crude oil short sale only lasted about a half a day.
100 points =$1000 loss.
-$22,280
His heating oil trade, above, probably did not get filled. The RBOB trade was stopped out the other day.
By the way, if you google "Phil Flynn" this thread is the #34 link that comes up. I think we should click on it a bunch and get it up to #1 or #2, for public safety purposes.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Wed 07 May 2008, 17:53:44

Geese, that guy must be trading on the telephone while on
vacation. It does not pay to take work with you on a vacation.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 08 May 2008, 14:27:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')uy June crude at 12000 - stop 11950.
Buy June heating oil at 33000 - stop 32700.
Sell June RBOB at 31900 - stop 32100.
Buy June natural gas at 1060 - stop 1030.

News Flash: Phil has flipped to bull on crude oil, wants to go long on almost the whole complex.
His one last bit of insanity is the RBOB short sale above. What is he thinking, trying to short RBOB three weeks before memorial day?
Also, note that his strategy now is to buy on the pullbacks. He has his limits set to kick in quite a bit below the market on his three long trades, way way lower on the natural gas.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')till, for the oil market, it is all about momentum. As I said technically if the market for crude closed above $120 we would see $125 and the way the market rebounded that looks like that is in the cards.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he bottom line is oil is not ready to top just yet and is still going to fly on its own.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 08 May 2008, 15:44:32

Crude Oil Falls in New York as OPEC Says Supplies Are Ample$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phil Flynn', 'I')t's clearly not a lack of crude oil that's driven the market higher.
Clearly? From the latest STEO:

Jan: production - 85.72, consumption - 86.25
Feb: production - 85.97, consumption - 87.02
Mar: production - 85.89, consumption - 85.80
Apr: production - 85.67, consumption - 86.04
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Thu 08 May 2008, 18:08:04

I feel uneasy now with phyl being bullish...
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 12 May 2008, 22:43:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')uy June crude at 12100 - stop 11950.
Buy June heating oil at 33000 - stop 32700.
We're short June RBOB from apprx 31900 - stop 32100.
Buy June natural gas at 1100 - stop 1070.

Phil's RBOB short sale was filled today, at 319, and he is in the money at the moment by about 2 1/2 cents.
So maybe a little over $1000 up on the trade for the time being.
Maybe he will win one for a change. Some jerk in Nigeria could throw a firebomb and he would be stopped out by morning.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby eastbay » Mon 12 May 2008, 22:54:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')uy June crude at 12100 - stop 11950.
Buy June heating oil at 33000 - stop 32700.
We're short June RBOB from apprx 31900 - stop 32100.
Buy June natural gas at 1100 - stop 1070.

Phil's RBOB short sale was filled today, at 319, and he is in the money at the moment by about 2 1/2 cents.
So maybe a little over $1000 up on the trade for the time being.
Maybe he will win one for a change. Some jerk in Nigeria could throw a firebomb and he would be stopped out by morning.

Funny.... interestingly, the oil markets are so jittery right now that just about anything could happen anywhere and oil will rise... and I'm expecting such news all the time and I'm rarely disappointed... there's been a few days of non-news, meaning something nasty will hit quite soon...
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 12 May 2008, 23:16:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust about anything could happen anywhere and oil will rise

Poor Phil's short sale is facing any of a dozen things that could be in the headlines, plus seasonality. It's three weeks before the kickoff of summer driving, for pete's sake.
Also, demand has increased versus last year for the last month or so, despite the prices.

So what is the compelling argument that favors a short sale? "The market is too high, it's due for a correction."
He might get lucky. You never know. For every buyer there is a seller equally convinced he is right, and vice versa.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby eastbay » Mon 12 May 2008, 23:24:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'u')st about anything could happen anywhere and oil will rise
Poor Phil's short sale is facing any of a dozen things that could be in the headlines, plus seasonality. It's three weeks before the kickoff of summer driving, for pete's sake. Also, demand has increased versus last year for the last month or so, despite the prices.

We all seem to be overlooking the June onset of hurricane season too, which over the past few years has been a non-issue.
We're certainly overdue for a few major storms to come smashing their way into the GOM. In a hyper-jittery oil market this could get really exciting for investors... and for the general public too, I suppose. Yikes!
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 13 May 2008, 00:50:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'u')st about anything could happen anywhere and oil will rise

Poor Phil's short sale is facing any of a dozen things that could be in the headlines, plus seasonality. It's three weeks before the kickoff of summer driving, for pete's sake. Also, demand has increased versus last year for the last month or so, despite the prices.

We all seem to be overlooking the June onset of hurricane season too, which over the past few years has been a non-issue.
We're certainly overdue for a few major storms to come smashing their way into the GOM. In a hyper-jittery oil market this could get really exciting for investors... and for the general public too, I suppose. Yikes!

This amazing runup in prices we've seen the last few months has had no traditional catalysts.
No storms.
No terrorism.
No invasions.
No seasonal increase in prices.
No crazy hot or cold weather.
No supply disruptions due to infrastructure failures.
Everything that has happened has been normal stuff that one would expect. It's really wild.
Can anyone remember a price runup this dramatic with no political or weather event behind it?
:)
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby eastbay » Tue 13 May 2008, 00:59:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'u')st about anything could happen anywhere and oil will rise

Poor Phil's short sale is facing any of a dozen things that could be in the headlines, plus seasonality. It's three weeks before the kickoff of summer driving, for pete's sake. Also, demand has increased versus last year for the last month or so, despite the prices.

We all seem to be overlooking the June onset of hurricane season too, which over the past few years has been a non-issue.
We're certainly overdue for a few major storms to come smashing their way into the GOM. In a hyper-jittery oil market this could get really exciting for investors... and for the general public too, I suppose. Yikes!

This amazing runup in prices we've seen the last few months has had no traditional catalysts.
No storms.
No terrorism.
No invasions.
No seasonal increase in prices.
No crazy hot or cold weather.
No supply disruptions due to infrastructure failures.
Everything that has happened has been normal stuff that one would expect. It's really wild.
Can anyone remember a price runup this dramatic with no political or weather event behind it?

No. Never. Good observation.
This is a first because 'The Problem' we've been talking about these past few years is now getting underway.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 13 May 2008, 14:42:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', ' June 2008 3.2015 3.1575 3.1575 3.2275 3.1430 3.1642 +0.0373 ')
Phil's RBOB short sale is toast, for a 2-cent loss, another $840 down the drain.
New total: -$23,120
Now that his one short sale is stopped out mabye he will come to his senses and go long.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 15 May 2008, 12:23:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')uy June crude at 12100 stop 11950
Buy June Heating oil at 345 stop 340
Sold June RBOB apprx 32000 stop 32300
Buy June natural gas at 1100 stop1070

Phil does not remember that his RBOB short sale was stopped out at 322 (another Deus et Machina moment).
The rest of these trades are still way out from being live.

Update/Edit: RBOB hit 323 this morning anyway, so even the above fudged trade would have been stopped out for another $420 loss, but in this case we will give him the benefit of the doubt on his original 322 exit price.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') June 2008 3.2069 n/a n/a 3.2370 3.1628 3.1804 +0.0265
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