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Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 10 May 2008, 15:13:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')Notice how crazy anxious they are to drill in Alaska?


Notice how crazy in denial the dems are over their vetoes on drilling in Alaska and drilling offshore?

They are so in thrall to the environmentalists they can't even admit that supply and demand issues are playing a role in the ever increasing oil prices. They live in a lala land where supply and demand issues don't matter and a conspiracy of speculators (the Superspeculators?) set global oil prices.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 10 May 2008, 15:39:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')Notice how crazy anxious they are to drill in Alaska?


Notice how crazy in denial the dems are over their vetoes on drilling in Alaska and drilling offshore?

They are so in thrall to the environmentalists they can't even admit that supply and demand issues are playing a role in the ever increasing oil prices. They live in a lala land where supply and demand issues don't matter and a conspiracy of speculators (the Superspeculators?) set global oil prices.


You think so, do you? False dichotemy. How do you know it isn't more about paving the way for nukes?
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 10 May 2008, 15:43:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')My own personal feeling, fwiw, is, exploration and refinery expansion aren't more feverish, because it is hellishly expensive.


Actually, refinery expansion IS going on at a feverish pace, just not in the United States. The oil majors have plenty of money for expensive projects---they've committed 600 million for exploration and pipeline work in Alaska this summer, but no one will risk building a refinery in the US now because of the environmental regulations and the ability of environmental groups to tie up construction projects for years to decades in the courts. Whats the point in even trying to build a refinery in the US?

Overseas the story is different.

The most recent FORTUNE magazine had a nice article about the construction of a huge new refinery city on the west coast of India---the total complex will be the size of Manhattan and will have the capacity to process 6% of all the oil in the world. The plan is to refine the crude there, and then to ship gas throughout India, with leftovers going to the US, Japan etc. as demand warrents. Another giant refinery is also built elsewhere in Asia, where labor is cheap and demand is growing rapidly.


Expansion going on at a feverish pace--just not in the US, the biggest consumer of gasoline on the planet. Just because India is building refineries, doesn't imply that the developed nations also expect to rely on gasoline as a major energy source, in the future.

And what about those 3 gorgeous dams in China? :lol: Doesn't look like the Chinese are planning to run their autos on much other than electrical, generated from hydro, and nukes, too.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 10 May 2008, 15:51:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')Just because India is building refineries, doesn't imply that the developed nations also expect to rely on gasoline as a major energy source, in the future.


India is planning to export some of the gas that they don't need to the US and other developed countries that no longer have the political will to build refineries for themselves. That way they get the high wage construction jobs, the high wage refining jobs, the chemical engineering expertise and the technology and the infrastructure development.
Last edited by Plantagenet on Sat 10 May 2008, 15:53:23, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 10 May 2008, 15:52:59

BTW, Do you know one of the main reasons, McCain drives so many repuglicans nuts, Plantagenet? He's totally opposed to drilling in Anwar. Google it. And irony of ironies, Hillary and Obama are actually not opposed to nukes either. Hmm... I've been screaming from the rooftops, almost since I joined this forum, to keep your eyes on nukes. That's the future, just not the one I want.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 10 May 2008, 15:58:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'B')TW, Do you know one of the main reasons, McCain drives so many repuglicans nuts, Plantagenet? He's totally opposed to drilling in Anwar. Google it. And irony of ironies, Hillary and Obama are actually not opposed to nukes either. Hmm... I've been screaming from the rooftops, almost since I joined this forum, to keep your eyes on nukes. That's the future, just not the one I want.


Yup. You are right about McCain. His views on ANWR don't really matter, however, because the laws are made by Congress and congress will be even more strongly democratic after the election and the dems oppose opening ANWR.

I agree....nukes will play a big role. Nukes aren't so bad---visit France and ride on some high speed intercity trains and the subways and trams in Paris and other cities----they all run on electricity and all are powered with nukes.

Nukes won't even start to happen in the US for a couple of election cycles at least, because the dems strongly oppose nuclear energy just like they oppose ANWR.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 10 May 2008, 16:17:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'B')TW, Do you know one of the main reasons, McCain drives so many repuglicans nuts, Plantagenet? He's totally opposed to drilling in Anwar. Google it. And irony of ironies, Hillary and Obama are actually not opposed to nukes either. Hmm... I've been screaming from the rooftops, almost since I joined this forum, to keep your eyes on nukes. That's the future, just not the one I want.


Yup. You are right about McCain. His views on ANWR don't really matter, however, because the laws are made by Congress and congress will be even more strongly democratic after the election and the dems oppose opening ANWR.

I agree....nukes will play a big role. Nukes aren't so bad---visit France and ride on some high speed intercity trains and the subways and trams in Paris and other cities----they all run on electricity and all are powered with nukes.

Nukes won't even start to happen in the US for a couple of election cycles at least, because the dems strongly oppose nuclear energy just like they oppose ANWR.


The energy "crisis" for energy suppliers, is trying to figure out how to play the future. While they worry about it, oil prices are allowed to drift up. This ennables huge profits for oil corporations. But better still, it ushers in a new nuclear energy age, where Joe sixpack, and his 3 headed kids, will quite happily share his backyard with a reactor.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby cube » Sat 10 May 2008, 16:50:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '.')... But better still, it ushers in a new nuclear energy age, where Joe sixpack, and his 3 headed kids, will quite happily share his backyard with a reactor.

unfortunately Joe Sixpack might not have the opportunity to have 3 headed kids. you know why?
*everybody all together* ---> "The USA is bankrupt"

A lot of people tend to forget the USA has over 100 nuclear reactors in operation right now supplying us with 20% of our electrical needs. Unfortunately there hasn't been much new construction ever since the "minor incident" at 3 mile island back in 1979. That was a long time ago so that means we have lots of old nuclear reactors that need to be replaced very soon. Forget about trying to ramp up production, is the money there to even replace existing infrastructure? probably not

BTW I hear it's quite popular in the USA for nuke plants to get a "Service life extension". If new plants can't be afforded then I guess we'll just have to hold onto the old ones a little longer! :)
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 10 May 2008, 17:15:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '.')... But better still, it ushers in a new nuclear energy age, where Joe sixpack, and his 3 headed kids, will quite happily share his backyard with a reactor.

unfortunately Joe Sixpack might not have the opportunity to have 3 headed kids. you know why?
*everybody all together* ---> "The USA is bankrupt"

A lot of people tend to forget the USA has over 100 nuclear reactors in operation right now supplying us with 20% of our electrical needs. Unfortunately there hasn't been much new construction ever since the "minor incident" at 3 mile island back in 1979. That was a long time ago so that means we have lots of old nuclear reactors that need to be replaced very soon. Forget about trying to ramp up production, is the money there to even replace existing infrastructure? probably not

BTW I hear it's quite popular in the USA for nuke plants to get a "Service life extension". If new plants can't be afforded then I guess we'll just have to hold onto the old ones a little longer! :)


What's to prevent sovereign wealth funds from building them, using Westinghouse and GE as contractors?
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby FreddyH » Sat 10 May 2008, 21:39:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'D')ude, Your first chart is off. Look at mine, in nominal terms, and adjusted for inflation. Also, check out the correction of price sometime in 2005 through 2006, back to around 50.00. How do you explain this?


Yours is likely daily data. The smoothing of many charts is acheived by using weekly, monthly or even annual data...
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby FreddyH » Sat 10 May 2008, 22:55:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'R')eally. Where is the spike down, in 2005 through 2006?

His chart was smoothed. All the short term movements are masked.

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/ ... _Chart.htm

vs.

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif


Shanny, A "short term" spike down of around 40%, that lasted over a year, is the main reason I'm posting here. Does anyone have a good theory as to why this occured, in 2005 through 2006? It doesn't appear it is related to geologic peak, at all.


Dude has covered well some of the incidents that caused spike episodes. The last three downward corrections (2004-2006) occurred the last three times that this Industry had brief Inventory builds. Rather than the stock draws or neutral phases we have had since 2006Q3, these were periods when the sector produced 1.5-mbd surpluses. It is these events that capture for us the true price base of the time ... void of speculation. And i stress speculation ... not the effect of speculators, which in itself is less than ten bucks/barrel. Surplus Episodes can bring prices down 30%.
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby FreddyH » Sat 10 May 2008, 23:37:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'A')t any rate the overall trend is skyward - and we only have 3.73 BBO of new supply scheduled for 2010, less than CERA's 4.5% annual decline rate. Let's speculate our way out of that one! The IEA outlook that will be published in the fall should be interesting, as they're doing their own bottom-up analysis. My money's on that marking a real paradigm shift, as these new Megaprojects are quite meager additions by and large - and the biggest are in exotic exploration locales like KSA. Course CERA also said we'll have 16 mbpd extra in 2010. :roll:


You don't have to wait 'til November, Dude. The 2007 WEO included a bottom study called the Alternative Scenario. We feature its projection on the TrendLines Scenarios 2008.

It forecasts that the fields active in 2006 will see their production decline at a rate of 3.6% (from 85-mbd down to 61-mbd) by 2015. Added to this will be 25-mbd of previously announced Megaprojects, yielding a 2015 Supply flow of 86.4-mbd. In short ... a nine year plauteau. On a more optimistic note, it foresees production rising from 86 to 100-mbd from 2015 to 2030.

On the contrary, its Reference Case projects 99-mbd in 2015 & 116-mbd in 2030 and is featured in our Hail Mary presentation.
www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 11 May 2008, 20:02:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')What's to prevent sovereign wealth funds from building them [nukes], using Westinghouse and GE as contractors?


The Sierra CLub Legal Foundation and other "environmentalist" groups have a stated policy of using legal tactics to stop every nuke in the U.S. They sue the utility, sue the state, sue the feds, sue the contractors, sue the county, sue the EPA, sue the private consulting companies...and then they appeal.

The net result of this is that nuclear power projects in the USA are delayed for years and then delayed for decades and everybody involved loses wads of money or goes broke then the nukes get cancelled.

And its a two-fer. The environmentalists not only caused the US to waste decades on building a nuclear power grid that isn't dependent on foreign oil, they are responsible for all the CO2 in the atmosphere and greenhouse warming caused by the coal-fired and diesel-fired generators they caused to be built to fill in for the nukes they stopped.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby RdSnt » Sun 11 May 2008, 22:15:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ')
I agree....nukes will play a big role.


Indeed, nukes will play a big role. Just don't expect any electricity to come of it.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby threadbear » Sun 11 May 2008, 23:10:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')What's to prevent sovereign wealth funds from building them [nukes], using Westinghouse and GE as contractors?


The Sierra CLub Legal Foundation and other "environmentalist" groups have a stated policy of using legal tactics to stop every nuke in the U.S. They sue the utility, sue the state, sue the feds, sue the contractors, sue the county, sue the EPA, sue the private consulting companies...and then they appeal.

The net result of this is that nuclear power projects in the USA are delayed for years and then delayed for decades and everybody involved loses wads of money or goes broke then the nukes get cancelled.

And its a two-fer. The environmentalists not only caused the US to waste decades on building a nuclear power grid that isn't dependent on foreign oil, they are responsible for all the CO2 in the atmosphere and greenhouse warming caused by the coal-fired and diesel-fired generators they caused to be built to fill in for the nukes they stopped.


I'm not cheerleading for nuclear reactors, believe me.

Energy is going to be framed as more and more of a crisis, after gasoline prices start to rise significantly (even if price per barrel drops) Opposition to nukes will evaporate. The Sierra Club, and all of the other environmental groups who oppose it, will be undermined by the propagandizing and lobbying power of the nuclear lobby. Plants will be fast tracked.

Its sad, but fear and poverty will subsume all other concerns. Plus, it'll create a lot of badly needed jobs. It can't go any other way, imho.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 12 May 2008, 00:20:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')What's to prevent sovereign wealth funds from building them [nukes], using Westinghouse and GE as contractors?


The Sierra CLub Legal Foundation and other "environmentalist" groups have a stated policy of using legal tactics to stop every nuke in the U.S. They sue the utility, sue the state, sue the feds, sue the contractors, sue the county, sue the EPA, sue the private consulting companies...and then they appeal.

The net result of this is that nuclear power projects in the USA are delayed for years and then delayed for decades and everybody involved loses wads of money or goes broke then the nukes get cancelled.

And its a two-fer. The environmentalists not only caused the US to waste decades on building a nuclear power grid that isn't dependent on foreign oil, they are responsible for all the CO2 in the atmosphere and greenhouse warming caused by the coal-fired and diesel-fired generators they caused to be built to fill in for the nukes they stopped.


Plants [nukes] will be fast tracked.

Its sad, but fear and poverty will subsume all other concerns. Plus, it'll create a lot of badly needed jobs. It can't go any other way, imho.


Thats certainly a possible future scenario, but there are other ways it can go. Right now the US isn't on the road to building more nukes. Right now the US is in denial and on the road to blaming high gas prices on speculators while subsidizing more and more corn ethanol and trying to get electricity from windmill farms and spending billions on research for a magic bullet from some new technology to save the day.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 12 May 2008, 00:55:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'R')ight now the US isn't on the road to building more nukes.
Meh.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved on Thursday the first site in over 30 years that could eventually house a new nuclear power plant, but the United States is still far away from breaking ground on any new reactors.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby cube » Mon 12 May 2008, 01:20:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '.')..
I'm not cheerleading for nuclear reactors, believe me.

Energy is going to be framed as more and more of a crisis, after gasoline prices start to rise significantly (even if price per barrel drops) Opposition to nukes will evaporate. The Sierra Club, and all of the other environmental groups who oppose it, will be undermined by the propagandizing and lobbying power of the nuclear lobby. Plants will be fast tracked.

Its sad, but fear and poverty will subsume all other concerns. Plus, it'll create a lot of badly needed jobs. It can't go any other way, imho.
Q:

Is there a nuke plant currently being built in the USA right now? I keep on hearing these news stories about the political climate shifting in favor of nuclear power, laws being changed, proposals, possible subsidies.....but I can't find a story about any nuke plant literally being constructed right now in the USA.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby eastbay » Mon 12 May 2008, 01:30:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '.')..
I'm not cheerleading for nuclear reactors, believe me.

Energy is going to be framed as more and more of a crisis, after gasoline prices start to rise significantly (even if price per barrel drops) Opposition to nukes will evaporate. The Sierra Club, and all of the other environmental groups who oppose it, will be undermined by the propagandizing and lobbying power of the nuclear lobby. Plants will be fast tracked.

Its sad, but fear and poverty will subsume all other concerns. Plus, it'll create a lot of badly needed jobs. It can't go any other way, imho.
Q:

Is there a nuke plant currently being built in the USA right now? I keep on hearing these news stories about the political climate shifting in favor of nuclear power, laws being changed, proposals, possible subsidies.....but I can't find a story about any nuke plant literally being constructed right now in the USA.


If we start right now (ROFL) planning, designing, approving, and building, by about 2025 the power will begin to flow... heh... about 10 years too late.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 12 May 2008, 01:39:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', ' ')I keep on hearing these news stories about the political climate shifting in favor of nuclear power, laws being changed, proposals, possible subsidies.....


The opposite is happening.

The dems are in control of both houses of Congress and will gain more seats in the coming election and the dems oppose nuclear power.
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