by Ming » Thu 15 May 2008, 09:42:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'I') run into this argument all the time about the speculators. The price of oil has been on a steady, more or less constant rise since 2003 (the only "sustained" drop was 6 months at the beginning of '06). I can see how speculator exuberance can make the short-term slope of that increase for brief periods (followed by a dip or correction) but I don't believe a speculator can cause the sustained increase. Unlike gold or silver, you have to take delivery of and use the oil in a fairly short period of time. Is anyone here arguing that the 5 year steady increase is due to speculation ?
BTW, I don't pretend to know much about this type of commodity market/investing. My rail stocks have been doing gangbusters though and I believe I understand the factors behind that. As long as the economy doesn't completely collapse...
That is correct (like many participants already explained).
The herd movement of funds, buying and selling paper barrels, is real, and has an easily measurable effect.
But that effect exists only for short term price movements, and it affects prices both upward and downward.
The present oil crude prices may have a component of some $10 due to financial investors and speculators.
But if crude drops to $105 in the next couple of months, people can thank those investors and speculators for a (temporary) price some $10 bellow equilibrium...
So, the (relatively small) price effects of financial speculation in crude compensate over time, and what remains in the long term is the market balance between offer and demand.