by Starvid » Sat 10 May 2008, 19:38:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'L')et's say the cost will be $65 trillion.
You are making an assumption here, and that is that the world GDP will stay at $65 trillion for the next 10 years. In actuality it is about $57 trillion and the chances of it staying there for 10 years is now approaching zero.
10% is equal to the food budget of the entire planet. With the world economy unraveling at a frightening rate, spending 10% on oil infrastructure guarantees that someone is going to have to starve. That is a position that is certainly not going to be politically acceptable.
According to Wikipedia, the world economy is $48 trillion or $54 trillion. I checked those numbers when I wrote that post I could've been damned that the numbers said $65 trillion. Anyway, it doesn't matter much.
Will world GDP grow or shrink going forward? On one hand we have a growing energy crisis, on the other hand the world economy is growing at a good speed, even great, in spite of these energy prices. Speculating if the economy will grow or shrink, or by how much, is not doable with any degree of certainty. So using the current number is as good as any.
And I wonder what you mean by "world economy unraveling at a frightening rate"?
There are problems in the US, but Europe and Asia are doing perfectly fine, and with our strong domestic markets we don't really need the US anymore. This is especially true for the emerging markets in Asia, who get about 90-95 % of their growth from domestic demand.