[cephalotus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '.').. the 16% unemployment rate in Germany,...

[KevO]

LINK

[pup55]

42040

I like to look at the wave heights.... at this buoy, which is east of the storm, there are 8 foot waves, every 7 seconds, which is pretty rough.

Pemex has been getting their people off of the platforms if the conditions reach this level. That helicopter ride in a storm like this is probably not a piece of cake either.

[TheDude]

Best of luck to all members in the path of this storm. Do whatever it takes to keep out of harm's way. The 1900 Galveston hurricane was a killer precisely because no one had much of any advance warning.

Updates at many sites, these are my two favorites:

Weather Underground
Hurricane Ike, 2008 / Stormpulse / Track hurricanes, tracking, mapping

Rita era map of refineries/SPR sites:



Big PDF from the MMS covering all infrastructure in the GOM: (Visual 1 .pdf)

TOD is running another series of threads on this storm, as they did with Gustav: Hurricane Ike and Oil Refineries/Infr astructure Thread #2 (9/10 16:30 EDT)

Houston Chronicle: Energy industry reprises actions taken for Gustav

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Port of Houston is closing tonight as Hurricane Ike approaches, most coastal refineries will make storm decisions today, and offshore energy facilities are extending precautions they took just a week ago for Hurricane Gustav.

The Barbours Cut and Bayport terminals will shut down at noon today, and the port will close to all vessel traffic at midnight, spokeswoman Argentina James said.

The Port's 25-mile-long complex is a hub in the nation's energy network.

Forecasts Wednesday evening projected Ike would come ashore Saturday between Corpus Christi and Galveston.

Port Freeport, about 65 miles south of Houston in a mandatory evacuation zone for Brazoria County, shut down early Wednesday afternoon and expects to reopen Monday, Chief Executive Pete Reixach said.

As vessel traffic declined, gasoline retailers were gearing up for a possible surge of evacuating motorists.

Motiva, a refining and retail gasoline joint venture between Shell Oil Co. and Saudi Arabia's state-owned Aramco, said in a prepared statement that its coastal service stations and refueling terminals were being stocked up in anticipation of higher demand.

Shell-branded stations also were setting up generators to keep pumps running in the case of a power outage.

[wisconsin_cur]

And those who live at the "end of the pipeline" should also prepare in their own way. If the combination of extra consumption from people evac-ing plus the decreased production from infrastructure going off line could result in shortages in places far away from Ike, the upper midwest or the east coast for two places.

Time to make "other arrangements" if you need to.

[patience]

The Dude's link, below, has bad news about the probable storm surge from Ike, based on a new analysis method, called, oddly enough, IKE. Meaning Integrated Kinetic Energy method, of computing the effect on surge.

IKE2111

This model indicates a lot more surge than the basic Category rating would indicate, since Ike has an unusual wind structure, which covers a massive area. Bad news for oil country, it sounds like.

Just talked to an order clerk in San Antonio, who said they are expecting an influx of people to the area soon.

[TheDude]

Rigzone: Direct Hit: Hurricane Ike Zeros in on Facilities and Rigs. This lists everything in Ike's path; Preparing for Ike to Strike has maps.

[joeltrout]

One thing many people forget is how much production goes to Houston to be processed, both natural gas and oil.

For Example:

My father and brother work for an E&P company in SE New Mexico which operates in the western portion of the Permian Basin. They are shutting down more than 90% of their oil and natural gas production because it gets [s]shipped[/s] PIPED to Houston for production.

I have no idea how much oil and natural gas in the Permian Basin is piped to houston for processing but shutting down all those fields can play havoc on the reservoirs.

joeltrout

[frankthetank]

This path has to be about worse case scenario.

Thanks for the links.

[TheDude]

Jeff Masters had this to say:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he situation is grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border. The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city's seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries. Expect a significant tightening of gas supplies in coming months, due to extensive damage to the oil refineries in the Houston and Port Arthur area.

[vision-master]

DOOMSDAY for many ppl.

[burtonridr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '[')b]DOOMSDAY for many ppl.

[UncoveringTruths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'T')his morning the Auger offshore platform recorded 99-108 mph winds - Cat 3.

[RedStateGreen]

I'm looking at Flhurricane and some of the channels are reporting thick black smoke in Galveston, near the coast. I can't really follow what the issue is but some of the captions talk about oil spillage.

Okay, they're saying that the fire department can't get there due to flooding so they don't know what's burning.

[RedStateGreen]

Okay, now they're saying a yacht is on fire ...

ETA: another station is saying it's at the yacht club in the dry dock, which is flooded.

ETA2: now they're saying a transformer blew and there are several explosions, with more expected. I knew it was more than just some boat ... the pictures are fairly dramatic.

[RedStateGreen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'W')isconsin_cur posted this photo in the other hurricane thread:

link to picture

Looks like maybe a house...

[RedStateGreen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'A')h, probably not the same place, then. That means there's more than one fire already...

Here is a link to a place where you can see survey bench markers of the Texas City refining complex, showing the elevations:

link

My husband said none are over 9' above sea level.

Edit: fixed link (sorry)

[RedStateGreen]

The governor just had a press conference and said the infrastructure damage could be as much as $81 billion.

[Leanan]

Governor Riley Declares State of Emergency; Price Gouging Law Goes into Effect

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')overnor Bob Riley on Friday afternoon declared a state of emergency for Alabama after he received new information from the U.S. Department of Energy that energy shortages will likely occur in the state due to Hurricane Ike.

The Governor’s declaration notes that “disruption of essential utility services, systems and severe energy shortages will likely occur.”

[Leanan]

Gas prices prompt state of emergency declaration from Beshear

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')entucky Gov. Steve Beshear on Friday declared a state of emergency to prevent gas price gouging in the state, according to a news release from the Governor’s Office.

...“We have received an overwhelming influx of of reports from across Kentucky regarding gasoline price spikes and even rationing,” said Attorney General Jack Conway in the release. “I felt it was important to get the price gouging protections in place as soon as possible to protect the commonwealth’s consumers and businesses."