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Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil prices?

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Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil prices?

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Fri 09 May 2008, 20:02:21

I've been drinking tea a good bit over the past year or so. I've been able to get it on sale frequently for about 10 cents plus taxes per bag. I recently noticed that an organic tea is available for about 7.5 cents. I hadn't noticed this organic tea until recently so I don't know how the prices have changed, but non-organic prices have increased a penny or two per bag.

But I've been wondering, due to higher oil prices and higher food prices, has anyone noticed a substantial narrowing of the prices of organic versus "traditional" foods? Have organic pastas, fruits, veggies and such had any price increases as much as oil-based food?
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby joeltrout » Fri 09 May 2008, 20:18:35

Organic foods are typically more expensive here due to the fact that they produce less of it. Fertilized foods produce much more product and therefore can be sold at lower prices.

Organic foods produce less on a commercial scale and therefore are more epensive and considered a luxury purchase.

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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Fri 09 May 2008, 20:24:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'O')rganic foods are typically more expensive here due to the fact that they produce less of it. Fertilized foods produce much more product and therefore can be sold at lower prices.

Organic foods produce less on a commercial scale and therefore are more epensive and considered a luxury purchase.

joeltrout


I know. Organic foods though don't use fertilizer and pesticides so they are less susceptible to oil price swings (in fact, hardly at all). So as food prices rise due to oil prices surging, fertilized foods will increase rapidly in prices but organic foods won't increase as much therefore, the price difference will decrease. I simply assumed that everyone knew this so I didn't bother posting this.

I simply asked if the rise in oil has significantly reduced the price margin between the two. Has anyone noticed? In which foods?
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 09 May 2008, 20:32:30

Organic milk at HEB grocery has gone up about 30% over the past six months or so.

Organic coffee has not gone up appreciably.
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby joeltrout » Fri 09 May 2008, 20:33:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', '
')
I know. Organic foods though don't use fertilizer and pesticides so they are less susceptible to oil price swings (in fact, hardly at all). So as food prices rise due to oil prices surging, fertilized foods will increase rapidly in prices but organic foods won't increase as much therefore, the price difference will decrease. I simply assumed that everyone knew this so I didn't bother posting this.

I simply asked if the rise in oil has significantly reduced the price margin between the two. Has anyone noticed? In which foods?


I think the rise in shipping costs due to oil increasing the price of diesel is much more of a factor than the rise of fertilizer costs.

Shipping affects organic and non-organic.

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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Fri 09 May 2008, 21:10:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'O')rganic milk at HEB grocery has gone up about 30% over the past six months or so.

Organic coffee has not gone up appreciably.


I'm looking for comparisons between the prices. What's non-organic milk and coffee been like? Similar situations? Perhaps it's good to look at actual price changes. If organic milk is $5.00 and non-organic milk $4 and then the price of transit doubles, you wouldn't expect the same percentage changes in both products but a similar nominal change in the price.

I'm really just wondering: should we be expecting organic to be more economical as oil becomes incredibly expensive (>$200) so that it's maybe even competitive?
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby Cashmere » Fri 09 May 2008, 23:23:07

Peak oil is going to be really bad for Vegans.

Organic food is going to go up in price at a higher rate than non, because they are more energy intensive to grow.

It's that simple.

If you ask yourself why organic crops cost more than non right now, it's because the amount of land and energy required to grow a fixed amount is higher.

So when people are strapped, they are going to buy the cheapest thing available, which will be the DDT treated potatoes, not the organic potatoes, which required more fuel to farm, and more expensive and fuel dependent "natural" pesticides.
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby Narz » Sat 10 May 2008, 00:28:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'P')eak oil is going to be really bad for Vegans.

Um, no it's not. If it weren't for government subsides many Americans already wouldn't be able to afford meat.

http://www.pcrm.org/magazine/gm07autumn ... _pork.html

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It terms of economics veganism is as inexpensive as you can get.
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby kpeavey » Sat 10 May 2008, 01:11:01

Cropland being converted to organic practices have slowed over the past couple of years. Farmers are finding it more lucrative to plant corn and soybeans and continue chemical/industrial practices rather than make the switch. It can take 3 years in most cases to become certified as organic, this is the time required to allow previous pesticide/herbicide/fertilizers to dissipate. Meanwhile, demand for organic produce is growing faster than the cropland is being converted.

Prices for organic produce will remain higher, typically 1.5 to 3 times more than industrial produce, for several years to come, assuming there is an economy. As the price of industrial produce climbs, due to increased input costs and increased global demand, organics will not climb at the same rate. The markets for organic produce are changing, getting closer to the production site. The difference in shipping costs will be that which has the greatest impact on the price difference. In the end, it all comes down to shipping costs. Organics will be available locally, in season, at a better price, but it is projected to be several years before this is the paradigm.
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Sat 10 May 2008, 07:16:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kpeavey', 'C')ropland being converted to organic practices have slowed over the past couple of years. Farmers are finding it more lucrative to plant corn and soybeans and continue chemical/industrial practices rather than make the switch. It can take 3 years in most cases to become certified as organic, this is the time required to allow previous pesticide/herbicide/fertilizers to dissipate. Meanwhile, demand for organic produce is growing faster than the cropland is being converted.

Prices for organic produce will remain higher, typically 1.5 to 3 times more than industrial produce, for several years to come, assuming there is an economy. As the price of industrial produce climbs, due to increased input costs and increased global demand, organics will not climb at the same rate. The markets for organic produce are changing, getting closer to the production site. The difference in shipping costs will be that which has the greatest impact on the price difference. In the end, it all comes down to shipping costs. Organics will be available locally, in season, at a better price, but it is projected to be several years before this is the paradigm.


Wow, great answer. Thanks
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby killJOY » Sat 10 May 2008, 07:42:11

I'm an organic gardener, and I work part-time at an organic farm, a job I really love.

Organics, as it is currently practiced outside the personal garden, has no future.

Cashmere is wrong about organics taking "more energy": It uses far less fossil energy. But it does take more LABOR. This is both its virtue and its Achilles heel.

The problem with organics is the "certification" process itself. Organic groups are pricing themselves right out of existence.

Most organics is fake. It's a label for chi-chi hippies to attach their personal goodness to.

The certifier (i.e. hippy rabbi) comes to the farm and blesses it. This winnows out farmers. The effect is to LIMIT THE SUPPLY and thus RAISE THE COST of organically grown food.

Think about it: you have to wait a certain number of years for the land to "purify" itself; you have to buy expensive holier-than-thou amendments and pesticides; you have to have a pool of cheap acolyte labor (usually non-existent, so you get grants and subsidies and employ "volunteers").

The farmer has so many hoops to jump through that you end up with fewer farmers willing to go organic. This, as I stated above, limits the supply. The organic certification process is a marketing ploy to keep prices high.

The claims of organic farmers are usually bogus as well. The skeptics dictionary has an excoriating review of organic food and farming. Every organic farmer should read it and contemplate what they are really in this for.

So why am I in it?

For personal survival. I make no claims for my produce other than I grow it myself without chemical inputs (which are expensive). I have a cellar full of food at the end of the year, and if THS really HTF, I've already practiced and perfected methods of growing the whole panoply of foods with just shovels, rakes, manures, mulches and hard work.

I like my work at the organic farm because of its small scale, and I personally detest listening large machinery all day, although I do have to drive the tractor a lot.

If we suddenly had a motivated work force eager to spend hours planting, hoeing, weeding, mulching, watering and picking in the hot sun, then I would gladly eat my statement above that organic farming has no future. But this is fat-ass America, where people would rather stand in bread lines in expensive sneakers chatting on their cellphones, than stand in fields in the hot sun contemplating the squash.

Let me repeat: the organics "movement," as it is currently practiced, is not interested in planning for a "sustainable," fossil-energy-reduced future. It is interested in hyping over-priced "toxin-free" carrots to gullible Prius drivers.
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby manu » Sat 10 May 2008, 08:49:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'P')eak oil is going to be really bad for Vegans.

Organic food is going to go up in price at a higher rate than non, because they are more energy intensive to grow.

It's that simple.

If you ask yourself why organic crops cost more than non right now, it's because the amount of land and energy required to grow a fixed amount is higher.

So when people are strapped, they are going to buy the cheapest thing available, which will be the DDT treated potatoes, not the organic potatoes, which required more fuel to farm, and more expensive and fuel dependent "natural" pesticides.
I tend to agree with you Cashmere. It cost less human energy to use up fossil fuels then it does to tend the soil. We are not about to enter a 'tipping point' where citizenry wakes up to a 'green' truth. Rather it will be more of the same--just amplified. People will be eating DDT-sprayed corn mush in the morning, Biotech Porridge (BP) at lunch, and Chicken-Little Brand syntho Chicken-Product (tm) for dinner. Yum! :!:


You forgot to add the solent green on the weekends.
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby Cashmere » Sat 10 May 2008, 09:49:14

Narz, you're right. I was wrong to use "vegan". I should have stuck with "organic".

If Vegans are OK with biotech food, non-organic food, and products tested on animals, then they'll be fine.

My point is, with prices rising, all groups will be driven toward the lower cost.

As for Killjoy -

Explain to me what extra labor is required to grow and harvest apples "organically"?

It seems to me that the only difference between an organic apple orchard and a non org. apple orchard is the yield per hectare and the cost of energy inputs. How much could certification cost? Certainly not a large portion of the difference in price.
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 10 May 2008, 10:01:16

Killjoy, I agree with you. Most of organic agriculture is a money-making scheme for the middleman.
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby kpeavey » Sat 10 May 2008, 10:22:21

Killjoy wrote$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')rganics, as it is currently practiced outside the personal garden, has no future.

I disagree. Industrial agriculture, with its petroleum intensive methods, is doomed. In the absense of fossil fuels, the ONLY agricultural methods that will hold up will be organic. While it is true that organic methods are more labor intensive, especially at the start of development of the field, labor requirements decline over time, while yields improve over time. After a typical 3-5 year startup period the yields are in line with industrial methods, while flavor, quality and nutritional content far exceed industrial methods. Key aspects of the organic method is its sustainability at the local level, stewardship of the soil and natural ecosystem feedback loops that promote benefits in the complete absense of chemical inputs.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he problem with organics is the "certification" process itself.

You got that right. The organic certification process is bullshit. I have to jump through hoops industrial farmers don't. This includes submitting regular soil analyses and nutritional analyses of the crops. It all starts with the OSP, Organic System Plan. I submit it to the certification service, they review it. If I want to make a small change to my methods, I have to submit the plan to the certification service, as well as the fees that go with it, then wait up to a couple of months for a response and/or approval. Farmer Ted can toss any old bucket of chemicals on his crops and sell it off without so much as a whisper as to what was in that bucket. If I use compost, I have to document what went into the pile, keep a record of activity and monitored temperatures. If I buy compost, I need documentation for what went into it, and it must all be certified organic. If it was made with chicken litter, the chickens have to be certified organic. The feed the chickens ate has to be certified organic. The seed I start the crops with must be certified organic. It's a complete pile of bureaucratic compost, and yes, it does drive some away.

There is a way around the regulations and certification. Skip them altogether and market the product as All-Natural. Educate your customers as to your methods, they will stick with you.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f we suddenly had a motivated work force eager to spend hours planting, hoeing, weeding, mulching, watering and picking in the hot sun, then I would gladly eat my statement above that organic farming has no future. But this is fat-ass America, where people would rather stand in bread lines in expensive sneakers chatting on their cellphones, than stand in fields in the hot sun contemplating the squash.

You sure got that right. I think that with the coming recession/depression we will have that motivated workforce.

One particular problem with organics is the issue of scale. Converting, say, 5 acres is a simple matter, can be done with inputs gathered locally and on the farm, and done with a handful of local laborers. The product can be processed and sold locally. In making the leap to 100 acres, inputs must be bought in from further away in massive volume. The product has to travel greater distances to find a market. The labor required needs housing and infrastructure. Machines and heavy equipment is needed to handle the volume. I think the problem of agriculture in the future will be a result of giant monocropping. Neither industrial or organic methods work on a giant scale in the face of reduced fossil fuels.

Keep it small, keep it local, keep it diverse, skip the certification process. Keep your customers happy.
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby Windmills » Sat 10 May 2008, 13:24:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kpeavey', 'I') think that with the coming recession/depression we will have that motivated workforce.


I don't think that can be overstated. People are going to be lined up for any job that allows them to eat for another day. For the first time in decades, the bums on the street actually will work for food instead of just using their cardboard sign is a gimmick to get cash for the cheap beer they'd buy at my store.

My father used to tell me a story about interviewing for jobs that I've never forgotten. He said he always showed up nicely dressed, at least in a shirt and tie, for any job application, no matter how "lowly" it might be. With regard to the motivated workfore, he said he showed up in a line of people in a shirt and tie hoping to get a job...to pick fruit. I think we'll see that type of thing again sooner than we'd really like.

In some ways, I look forward to the day when all the lazy entitlement-minded swine get scraped off the labor force. I tell my administrators that day is coming and that they won't need to be so desperate for staff that don't call in sick twice a week and actually show up on Mondays and Fridays. There'll be a line of people in shirts and ties for those jobs, too, so they can fire anyone that gets *cough cough* "the black lung" every Friday and Monday.
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 10 May 2008, 13:45:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', ' ')People are going to be lined up for any job that allows them to eat for another day.


Then why do so many doomers believe so strongly in the Zombie Hordes? They seem to think people would rather rape and pillage than work on a farm.


So which is it, Zombie Hordes, or willing workers?
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby aflurry » Sat 10 May 2008, 13:54:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '
')Organic food is going to go up in price at a higher rate than non, because they are more energy intensive to grow.


i don't know, seems like the main reason organic is more expensive is that people will pay a premium for it. same reason Nike is expensive. brand recognition
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Re: Organic becoming a better economic option due to oil pri

Unread postby Cashmere » Sat 10 May 2008, 14:21:58

OK, the basics.

10 acre apple farm.

With common, relatively cheap, pesticides and fertilizer, yields X pounds of produce with Z amount of labor.

Without common, relatively cheap pesticides and fertilizer, yields 0.5X pounds of produce with Z amount of labor or a bit less.

Conclusion:

1st apple farm cost per apple is less.

By the way Shanny, I don't agree that organics are substantially more healthy than non, if at all.

While it sounds great that "natural pesticides" are used rather than "synthetic pesticides", the issue is a molecular issue, not a title issue.
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