by vaseline2008 » Fri 09 May 2008, 18:12:52
JohnDenver, I'm sorry if I mis-typed, I am agreeing with you about your views on how a small number of investors/speculators can manipulate the market. Threadbear is also right.
I think Linda Rafield has started all of this:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')This appears to me to be computer-generated buying," said Linda Rafield, senior oil analyst at Platts, the energy research arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. Some investors use software that buys automatically when prices rise to certain levels; Thursday's record settlement may have triggered a flurry of electronic buy orders.
"There is no fundamental news out to cause this market to move like this," Rafield said
Just Google "Linda Rafield" and you can find this same comment in a number of different articles.
About Government Regulations: We need them, period. How about we make murder legal? How about speed limits? Anyone who thinks that the US has "too much" government regulations and interventions, please move to Zimbawe or anywhere else in some 3rd world country...they don't have a lot of government breathing down your back as long as you have $$, hell you can even get into the Human Slave Trade too if you like (anyone who thinks that Slavery does not exist in the world needs to get their head out of the sand).
Once again, follow the money. As mentioned previously, when there is a trade there is a buyer and seller. Someone is going to lose, right?
Here's why: In an inflated Bull Market, the last guy who is selling is probably selling at a profit so the "loser" is going to be the last guy to buy. When the music stops, the bubble bursts. Once the bubble (price bubble, not supply) bursts whoever is holding Call contracts in excess of the spot price is going to lose their open interest money (margin maintenence) or won't be compensated for the contracts that were purchased. Sound kind of familiar to anyone in the Real Estate Market? Short term contracts (aka
Adjustable
Rate
Mortgage) are a gamble or at best "insurance". Sure they are great when things are moving in the upward direction but as the saying goes, "what goes up must come down", hence our "Peak [fill in the blank]" theory. Remember all the talk about reforming the Mortgage Industry? Only thing that I know is that the banks aren't lending as much anymore. This is just more of the same.
Now, with that said, who is really making the money? The exchanges...they get a fee no matter what happens. Anyone who plays poker knows that the Casino takes a "Rake". This is the "fee" that the Casino "charges" the players at the table for use of their facility and furnishings. It doesn't matter who is the winner, as long as they get their's. I have a friend who is a "bookie" and he doesn't care what his clients bet on...if they lose the "juice" starts running and he makes 10%. He tells me that all I need is about 3 clients who bet a lot and I can quit my day job. He relies on his clients to lose money! Money makers don't care how...just make it.
Funny thing is that the NYMEX stock (NMX) is down from it's inception: From $132.99 down to $93.04 today in spite of profits and growth.
Here is a story from 12/07 that WSJ had posted about NYMEX's 87% increase in contracts from the same time 1 year ago.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/S ... &dist=yhoo
NYMEX is a major partner in the Dubai Mercantile Exchange, here is where the money is going...here is an article regarding the expansion:
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2008/05/08/i ... d=yahoo_hs
I don't know about you, but if GM had an increase of 87% in sales (and assuming profit too) wouldn't everyone on Wall Street buy GM stock and make the price go up? Why NMX stock hasn't taken off is beyond me, their profit margin is 33.28%. Google's profit margin is 24.89% and their stock is $500+.
I don't think this whole mess is the work of just one individual or small group (manipulation). Tt's the culimination of de-regulation and an overabundance of wealth. Don't get me wrong, I'm all about business, I own my own business but we as reasonable humans should think twice about the "necessities" of life. People are dying of starvation as we speak (and eat our steaks and potatoes) aroung the world not because of a shortage of food but because of the shortage of "money" to purchase it.
Perhaps this is the evolutionary process where only the strong survive, but is this the road that we want to go down? Imagine the next evolution of man: Average IQ is 145, height 6', weight 200lbs. Sorry to say but Hitler had the right "Idea", just not the right approach. It is proven that through selective breeding we are able to speed up the evolutionary process. Perhaps there will be two sets of the species,
homo sapien and
homo suprasapien. Perhaps the former will be enslaved (in a matter of speaking) by the latter. If peace begets peace, doesn't greed beget greed?
Someone mentioned that "greed" is not against the law, that is not true, there are government limitations everywhere in our lives that try to "control" greed. Can't have more than one wife, right? Can't be "greedy" and have two (or more).
Nature is based on "greed" or "competition" (for the lack of a better word). Only the most attractive plants get pollenated, only the most attractive animals get to reproduce (I use the term "attractive" very loosely here). Blame it all on the flower, according to scientists life on earth took off after the flower evolved. Greed/Competition is the core problem of our whole existence, but without it we all die. In nature it is also true, make it better, faster and cheaper and you will beat your competition.
To those who are "going to profit" while others are dying of starvation: The rich need the poor and vice versa, it's a symbiotic relationship. The poor need the rich to provide "jobs" so that they can live. The rich need the poor to buy their goods and services from the wages they received from working. What's going to be interesting is when all the entire world is developed and we don't have any more cheap labor.
Business always looks for cheap labor. Maybe that's why Honda created ASIMO? Perhaps the Matrix movies have it right. Humans will create machines to do all their "work" and become complacent. Computing power is ever increasing, here is an article from the San Francisco Chronicle's website:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... d=rss.news
The scary part is that usually the computer is right in it's speculations. What if the computer predicts the ultimate demise of the human race? What will Wall Street do then? Artificial Intelligence and machines will merge creating a new "species" that will overpower the humans. Has anyone ever heard of the "Gigapet"?
Isn't raising cattle for energy (food is energy consumed by us humans) the same concept as the Matrix? One species takes advantage of another? Is this going to be the next step in Evolution? Perhaps man and machine fused together (just Google biotechnology or nanotechnology) is the future? We are already going down that path with Titanium hip replacements and experimental "brain chips" that will send the neuro signals across severed nerves wirelessly so that a parapalegic can walk again (I'm waiting for this to happen, a good friend of mine had a freak occurence that left him paralyzed at the age of 40,
www.neighborbill.com) to name a couple examples.
What I see is human nature, people don't act, they
Re-Act to whatever emotion stirs them at the moment. The same happens in the world markets, it also happens in forums such as these. How many posts are in defense of someone's words or posts? Look at the title of this thread. Americans will never be banned from overseas oil trading...we depend on importing oil. This is a knee-jerk
re-action to emotion.
What needs to happen is a fundamental change in human attitude towards life. Once a utopian state is reached where all basic human needs (water, food, shelter, and clothing) are met then we as a collective (sounds like the Borg) will be able to go to the stars. Spaceship Earth only has so much "gas"...if the Human Species is to survive we need an "exit" or "expansion" plan off of this rock. I guess this is when man evolves to "god".
John Lennon, here's to you, "Imagine all these people..."
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