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Re: Another Oil price Record

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Another Record ($123.48)

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Wed 07 May 2008, 17:13:49

$123.80
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Re: Another Record ($123.48)

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 07 May 2008, 17:35:02

Next year oil will be $160. It has increased 34% a year for six years and it has done this for very fundamental reasons. (If you want to stumble through the thread you can read why.)AvailableEnergy

The year after that it will be $215.

Those that think that oil will decline with an economic downturn, are in for a shocking surprise. It is not going to happen for a very long time.

Price will peak and stabilize when the world economy is contracting at 3.1 to 5.8% per year.
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Re: Another Record ($123.80)

Unread postby Ferretlover » Wed 07 May 2008, 18:28:00

$123.93 @ 4:26 pm CT
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Re: Another Record ($123.80)

Unread postby Eli » Wed 07 May 2008, 18:35:38

What is causing this run?

What news? Something must have broken somewhere. People with lots of cash have inside knowledge that something very bad is going on.
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 07 May 2008, 18:54:51

Eli said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat is causing this run?

What news? Something must have broken somewhere. People with lots of cash have inside knowledge that something very bad is going on


With Fallon out of the way, maybe our resident psychopath in the White House is working on hitting Iran. I’m sure he is concerned with his legacy!!

If true, all theories are put on hold, oil will be $600 next week.
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Re: Another Record ($123.48)

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Wed 07 May 2008, 18:57:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'P')rice will peak and stabilize when the world economy is contracting at 3.1 to 5.8% per year.


Of course at that point the world itself will be unstable, ravaged by intermittent and intense political and military battles for dwindling oil supplies, with nations like the US experiencing social decay on a level that will make it easy to argue for martial law.

Hopefully not, but is a possible scenario on the doom side. At any rate contraction of 3% per year is well unheard of, unprecedented in modern history, and not conducing to a peaceful global market for anything.

This sucks, I want oil to back down to $70 right now!
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby Last_Laff » Wed 07 May 2008, 19:09:58

123.93 as of this post date/time. Now update the title!
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby bonehead » Wed 07 May 2008, 19:11:18

Crude and gasoline inventories went up today.The dollar also went up today.There's just no sense in this market.Oil went up today because it can,it's that simple.Natural gas also went up today because oil says it can.We'll be up to $200 in no time,probably within two months.
Gimme some demand destruction.
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby Last_Laff » Wed 07 May 2008, 19:12:03

Whoo... it's going to get any higher is it?
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby joeltrout » Wed 07 May 2008, 19:21:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonehead', 'W')e'll be up to $200 in no time,probably within two months.


So are you buying oil futures?

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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 07 May 2008, 19:26:05

Gandalf_the_White said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')opefully not, but is a possible scenario on the doom side. At any rate contraction of 3% per year is well unheard of, unprecedented in modern history, and not conducing to a peaceful global market for anything.


The world losing 35% of its energy supply in 13.25 years is also unheard of, but that’s what happened in the US in ‘71, and it seems almost a certainty to happen to the world.

I think they call this an apocalypse!
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 07 May 2008, 19:29:41

Classic pump and dump. Give it a couple of months. I would avoid oil and food commodities like the plague, right now. Don't get suckered in.
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 07 May 2008, 19:38:47

threadbear said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')lassic pump and dump. Give it a couple of months. I would avoid oil and food commodities like the plague, right now. Don't get suckered in.


Oil prices and surplus capacity have been going up and down for 6 years. Grain reserves have fallen for 6 or the last 7 years. There is good reasons to believe what we are seeing, and any way, how do you do start a cyclone in old Burma.
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 07 May 2008, 20:27:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]threadbear said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')lassic pump and dump. Give it a couple of months. I would avoid oil and food commodities like the plague, right now. Don't get suckered in.


Oil prices and surplus capacity have been going up and down for 6 years. Grain reserves have fallen for 6 or the last 7 years. There is good reasons to believe what we are seeing, and any way, how do you do start a cyclone in old Burma.


Agreed, on both counts--with a caveat-- recent sharp upticks in price are no longer commensurate with falling supply. There are factors, completely divorced from basic supply and demand,involved here.

Add to that the strong probability that China will go into it's own recession and you could have the makings of a retreat in commodity and oil prices to 2006 or 2007 levels. Ethanol's days may be numbered, as well, as the food crisis becomes a platform for politicians, both here and abroad, encouraging the cutting of subsidies.

The invisible hand of the market, in this case, is not only unseen, it is obscuring it's ultimate purpose, which is to steal money directly out of the pockets of investors, in the long term, and out of the mouths of babes, in the short term.

The sheer audacity, by a relative handful of individuals in the financial market, to take a bad situation and make it that much worse, requires political intervention. This will very likely come, and those investing in commodities and oil, have to be prepared for the possibility.
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Wed 07 May 2008, 21:11:24

There comes a moment in every struggle where retreat is no longer possible.
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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Re: Another Record ($123.15)

Unread postby peak » Wed 07 May 2008, 22:00:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Duende', '[')b]frankthetank wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')P-

Reminds me of when i use to read thing about how, say CTL, will be profitable when oil hits X (Say $75 barrel). Well thats great, but if oil doubles to get there, so does everything else (metals, other energy souces, labor, etc). Nothing really has changed except the price of just about everything has doubled...


The phenomenon which you're describing is called "The Law of Receding Horizons". There's a few threads on it, and some dispute it. I think it's a very powerful argument for Peak Oil.


But the prices of coal have barely moved.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/pdf/pages/sec9_15.pdf

Why can't you look at the facts?

Canada is USA's number1 importer of crude oil, because of oil sands.

The oil sands company are also increasing capacity. One company I see is growing capacity by 40% YOY.

Its extremely profitable at these record prices.
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 07 May 2008, 22:41:54

peak said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut the prices of coal have barely moved.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')rices of coking coal, a steel-making raw material, will stay at records next year because of rising demand for the alloy and as higher costs delayed the construction of new mines, according to Macquarie Bank Ltd. The price of hard coking coal may remain at $300 a metric ton for the year starting April 1, 2009, up 67 percent from a previous estimate.


If you look into it you will find that coal prices are skyrocketing world wide, and coal shortages are showing up everywhere from China to South Africa.
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby Duende » Thu 08 May 2008, 00:36:15

peak wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he oil sands company are also increasing capacity. One company I see is growing capacity by 40% YOY.


That "one" company will be looking at astronomically rising infrastructure costs over the next few years by trying to grow that fast. Lord knows we need the supply though, so I only urge them to speed up. It's as easy as playing tag with the sun. 8O
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby lowem » Thu 08 May 2008, 01:32:27

Another day, another record. If it's all speculative, there should be profit-taking already by now. Yet we remain persistently above $120.

Do I dare say that $120 is turning into a support level? :lol:
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 08 May 2008, 01:47:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'I')f you look into it you will find that coal prices are skyrocketing world wide, and coal shortages are showing up everywhere from China to South Africa.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The price of hard coking coal may remain at $300 a metric ton for the year starting April 1, 2009, up 67 percent from a previous estimate.


Fortunately, whether or not an estimate is correct usually doesn't impact price significantly. ;)

Coal price tends to be based on regional consumption due to it's low energy density, and in cases where economical transportation is available, can increase significantly. However, this is not necessarily the result of higher oil prices, since currency weakness, in this case thanks to the current administration's irresponsible fiscal policies, can result in a significant increase in prices for coal from certain sites that's relatively easy to export.

On the world market, coal prices have increased, although it's link to oil price is dubious at best. Based on reports, 80+% of the drop in coal exports (primarily from China and Australia) declined thanks to wacky weather, which, if anything, is likely related to GHGs from fossil fuels as opposed to crude prices.

Even then, correlation is not causation, although IMO the IPCC's report on climate change has more weight than poorly defined statements about receding horizons. Not that they can't play a part, just that no one has quantified them wrt what's being discussed, and as such I tend to be a bit skeptical of those who say it's so because they said so. ;)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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