Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Something blew up...Ticker Forum...

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Something blew up...Ticker Forum...

Unread postby roccman » Sun 04 May 2008, 22:57:19

"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
User avatar
roccman
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4065
Joined: Fri 27 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: The Great Sonoran Desert

Re: Something blew up...Ticker Forum...

Unread postby Atlantean_Relic » Sun 04 May 2008, 23:10:27

And I'm sure tommorrow we'll see a 300 pt climb in the markets and the MSM blathering how great the state of the US economy and industry is.
Was a long and dark December
When the banks became cathedrals
And the fog
Became God
User avatar
Atlantean_Relic
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 724
Joined: Mon 24 Oct 2005, 03:00:00
Location: North of Id, west of Oz, and infront of the damned rabbit

Re: Something blew up...Ticker Forum...

Unread postby Novus » Sun 04 May 2008, 23:13:36

Gold was pretty over sold in the last few weeks. It is about time it starting playing catch up. Overall nothing to see here.
User avatar
Novus
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2450
Joined: Tue 21 Jun 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Something blew up...Ticker Forum...

Unread postby rostov » Mon 05 May 2008, 15:55:06

Aw c'mon Roccman, let the trader's do their work. We keep PO-related stuff here yar?

It's basically the same over here in PO instead of TF : our preps currently are experiencing a theta burn right now : notice that a few of us basically have given up being self-sufficient? (weak bears) But the hard core ones keep going on (pops, aaron, heinekien, olaf, etc).

We're ready (sorta) for any sort of acceleration event either on the SPX/RUT/NDX/TLT/TNX/IRX/BIX/BKX(/VIX) to set our preps in place. Same for WTI/USO/etc. Same for COW (rice, wheat, etc). Same for $DXY. Anyway, we still need a confirmation of the turn date for this week before making enough of a case for a reversal. I know last night (this morning for me) the bonds/currencies/futes had all bad prints on Schwab/Fid/TOS/etc. I know WB is talking his book.

I suppose such warnings of their mark-to-market/lev3/acceleration-event will serve a whipping warning to us PO'ers here to giddy up our plans. But it'll take quite a bit of effort for most folks here in po.com to understand what PIka and Nothing and BW and Pcap discuss heavily about (e.g. cost of government debt and T's as CDOs)

I'd rather start screaming when we actually have a SPX past 1220 and touching 1070, then up to whatever fib you want, then back to SPX 800. We're talking years man. Maybe we should put up at SPX daily/weekly for 2000-2003 for a timeframe approximation?

Nothing to see here folks. Let's get back to the raft building.
regards,
Rostov
"Some {} are more equal than others"
User avatar
rostov
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat 29 Jan 2005, 04:00:00
Location: New Zealand

Re: Something blew up...Ticker Forum...

Unread postby roccman » Mon 05 May 2008, 16:13:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rostov', ' ')the bonds/currencies/futes had all bad prints on Schwab/Fid/TOS/etc.

Nothing to see here folks. Let's get back to the raft building.


Volumes not price action were bad prints...

"fat finger" Monday...

You remember the last "fat finger" we had.

Buckle up.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
User avatar
roccman
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4065
Joined: Fri 27 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: The Great Sonoran Desert

Re: Something blew up...Ticker Forum...

Unread postby rostov » Mon 05 May 2008, 17:07:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')Volumes not price action were bad prints...

You remember the last "fat finger" we had.


Yeah, I must be smoking a tree when I typed that. Timezone-lags kills me everytime.

However, we'll see. Those handles that came off EVERYTHING will NOT be a fat finger trade if they get to keep the scalps, unlike what we had in the past. Need confirmation.

Ditto. Buckle up. Up or down on the SP ain't gonna be enough to prop the numbers up for government receivables (T's)
regards,
Rostov
"Some {} are more equal than others"
User avatar
rostov
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat 29 Jan 2005, 04:00:00
Location: New Zealand

Re: Something blew up...Ticker Forum...

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Mon 05 May 2008, 17:25:14

What the hell are ya'll talkin' 'bout?

No, really.
User avatar
PeakingAroundtheCorner
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 522
Joined: Sun 08 Apr 2007, 03:00:00

Re: Something blew up...Ticker Forum...

Unread postby seahorse2 » Mon 05 May 2008, 17:32:28

I'm ignorant about this too, what is a "fat finger"?
User avatar
seahorse2
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2042
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Something blew up...Ticker Forum...

Unread postby roccman » Mon 05 May 2008, 18:34:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'W')hat the hell are ya'll talkin' 'bout?

No, really.


here

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ast night out of the middle of nowhere we had a huge downward spike in the futures market. Much time and effort was spent trying to figure out if it was a fat-fingered trade (as occurred in January), but Globex said no, and the trades stood.

The interesting thing about this was that it didn't have the appearance of a "fat finger" mistake at the time; it was across all markets, including Treasuries and The Dollar, Gold, and the futures in all three primary indices, and was accompanied with real volume.

Was that someone bailing on a long or getting aggressively short ahead of a potential explosion? Its impossible to know with certainty, but we never did see an actual mushroom cloud, so its difficult to know what was in the mind of person(s) involved. But a 15-handle move in seconds accompanied by volume in the overnight session certainly wakes you up fast when you're casually glancing at your computer!

I'll note that the last time we saw this sort of "overnight dislocation", which at the time was claimed to be a "fatfinger mistake" by Globex (and resulted in thousands of busted trades), we started a precipitous decline in the market that spanned several days the next morning.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
User avatar
roccman
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4065
Joined: Fri 27 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: The Great Sonoran Desert

Re: Something blew up...Ticker Forum...

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 05 May 2008, 18:37:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'I')'m ignorant about this too, what is a "fat finger"?


Is that like phattie?
vision-master
 
Top

Re: Something blew up...Ticker Forum...

Unread postby strider3700 » Mon 05 May 2008, 19:20:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'I')'m ignorant about this too, what is a "fat finger"?


basically it's used to blame a trade that was made in error. "Your finger flipped and you accidentally traded 10,000,000 instead of 1000 like you wanted..."

when you see huge trades taking place that are contrary to popular view of the market they like to blame it on someones fat fingers.
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
strider3700
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2865
Joined: Sun 17 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Vancouver Island
Top

Re: Something blew up...Ticker Forum...

Unread postby seahorse2 » Mon 05 May 2008, 19:23:08

Thanks strider.
User avatar
seahorse2
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2042
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Something blew up...Ticker Forum...

Unread postby rostov » Tue 06 May 2008, 02:11:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rostov', 'n')otice that a few of us basically have given up being self-sufficient?

I hope you aren't referring to me! I've given up nothing.


Nope. Not you. Don't worry, it's not most of us so far.

What I meant was this : as per most traders would comment : trends, news, events (fat finger events, or something blowing up in the background), debt implosion, etc etc all are fine and are responsible for quite a few price actions across the board, BUT all will need a few days or weeks of confirmation before one can "see"/"feel" a direction.

What roccman and myself have not really commented is that a portion of TF'ers (note : they are very smart on the monetary matters), including the operator/owner KD/genesis, think that there has been weeks of distribution, and with last week's NYSE/NASDAQ new highs and new lows, such activity has not been seen since October. The actual technicalities are still being worked out, but you can tell that most TF'ers are net short and being squeezed badly with the few weeks' worth of ceilings hammered repeatedly and broken through to current levels. Right now it's a very hot debate : technically nobody knows if it's massive deleveraging by the IB's/banks (hedge funds deleverage means they undo their shorts of equities and long of commodities like gold and silver -- means if they cover their shorts ...equities rise; if they close their longs...commodities like gold and silver fall), or whether or not its massive irrationality of buying from locals/retailers <-- the last point being inferred from the net sell-on-strength capital flows published by WSJ

Fundamentally, it's another hot topic I doubt PO.com can actually discuss sanely. Suffice to say there's quite a bit to understand about monetarization of debt and the asset-vs-price deflation in a fractional banking and interest-bearing system, and government debt, etc. But fundamentally, we're very screwed unto a reset even worse than the 20s/30s.

Roccman is trying to warn of a possible top here that we see since the peaks of July/August October/November. Together with bond dislocation, equities (remember : those that "get it" are bonds then FX then equities) are in for a very violent movement. IMHO, I won't put ALL bets on down.

The problem is theta (time), and we just don't know how long. That's where my emphasis is : wait for confirmation before deciding that "this is it". Otherwise, let's just live life as we know it -- prep for post peak.

No snubs or offences intended for both prep'ers and trader's and investors alike.
regards,
Rostov
"Some {} are more equal than others"
User avatar
rostov
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat 29 Jan 2005, 04:00:00
Location: New Zealand
Top


Return to Open Topic Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron