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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

can we still reach for the stars?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Unread postby maverickdoc » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 18:54:05

1-5% of the population, That is wildly optimistic. I would say .1% if that, in the US (most of us don’t want to know). And perhaps 1% in Europe.
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Unread postby TrueKaiser » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 19:23:36

O_o all i did was ask a simple question.
anyway i do value everyone's reply's.
yea i know 7 billion years is long enough for several more intelligent species to evolve if they do evolve as fast as we have, and i know it's more then enough time for the earth to refill it's reserves. i asked the question because peak oil is not about running out of oil but running out of the cheap stuff that could be sold and used to float a economy. i think if they ignore the cost of extracting enough oil to continue to do some minor exploring or focusing on making the moon a springboard to launch future missions then we might still have a chance, a slim one at best but a chance.
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Unread postby Dezakin » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 19:42:27

Why do you think I don't know what I'm talking about? Peak oil means exactly that, and little more.

Learn a bit about resource substitution; While diesel fuel is probably the best volumeteric way of storing energy, it is not required that we make it exclusively from oil. We can make it from coal vial fischer-tropsch synthesis, from natural gas, and when all the fossil fuels are gone, from nuclear energy, limestone and water.

I've posted several times multiple cites on why we wont run out of cheap uranium/thorium for the next tens of thousands of years, and can post them again if you don't believe me. I've posted on the economics of nuclear power that show it to be decidedly the least expensive way to produce large scale electric power.

Which claim exactly do you have issue with? I'll take all arguments and show them to be paper tigers.
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Unread postby americandream » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 21:52:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('maverickdoc', 'C')lam down Tyler. Dezakin does not really know what he is talking about.

Dezakin you need to read up before posting some thing like that. You might want to start out by watching some videos.

http://smalley.rice.edu (this guy won a nobel prize)

http://www.peakoil.net/Colin.html


Hey Maverick...send the guy the link to Bartletts video on exponential growth..I'm not too sure where it is.
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Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 22:17:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')-5% of the population, That is wildly optimistic. I would say .1% if that, in the US (most of us don’t want to know). And perhaps 1% in Europe.


1-5% of the population care enough about the environment to understand overshoot. You don't need to understand peak oil to be a Peak Oiler. PO is just another reason to get population growth under control. Almost all of the people who voted for Nader understand the science behind overshoot.
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Unread postby maverickdoc » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 22:23:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')-5% of the population, That is wildly optimistic. I would say .1% if that, in the US (most of us don’t want to know). And perhaps 1% in Europe.


1-5% of the population care enough about the environment to understand overshoot. You don't need to understand peak oil to be a Peak Oiler. PO is just another reason to get population growth under control. Almost all of the people who voted for Nader understand the science behind overshoot.



Point taken. But how many know about PO exactly (not the environment)? the Hubbard curve, resource depletion etc. Half of this country still thinks saddam was involved in 911. that’s why we went there not because of oil (or petro dollar). People will believe any thing the govt. tells them
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Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 22:27:15

And counter point. Less than 1% of the adult population know what we know. That includes high level governmental officials, oil workers, geologists, and all of the other people who would learn about it in their line of work.
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 22:30:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'H')ey Maverick...send the guy the link to Bartletts video on exponential growth..I'm not too sure where it is.


Bartlett's video doesn't prove jack shit. If we can grow beyond the earth (which is the question at hand in this thread, and you certainly haven't proved it to be impossible), then Bartlett's equation doesn't impose any limits at all. It describes how fast will we grow.
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Unread postby Terran » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 22:31:59

Doubt it, another thing is think about is look at the sheer distance. Nearest star is about 4.3 light years away. It takes light 4.3 years to travel that distance. If you look at space travel today, it wouldn't work it simply won't be fast enough. Even if we travel at 1/10th the speed of light, which seems impossable with todays technology it will still take a pretty long time.

It seems like we've blown it, we've wasted alot of useful resources on junk that we don't need. Seems like no more moon missions, I'm not too sure about the mission to mars. Then remember that they had to get rid of the Russian MIR space station. We do have the International Space station, but wonder how long that's going to last.....

It seems like our motivation towards space is for warfare reasons. Seen if we succeed we will see the militarization of space. Ever heard of whoever controls space, controls the planet?
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 22:48:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terran', 'D')oubt it, another thing is think about is look at the sheer distance. Nearest star is about 4.3 light years away. It takes light 4.3 years to travel that distance.


No, you nimrod, the nearest star is approximately 8 light minutes away. We just need to bring a little more of the energy from that star over to the earth, using mirrors for example.
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Unread postby americandream » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 23:02:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'H')ey Maverick...send the guy the link to Bartletts video on exponential growth..I'm not too sure where it is.


Bartlett's video doesn't prove jack shit. If we can grow beyond the earth (which is the question at hand in this thread, and you certainly haven't proved it to be impossible), then Bartlett's equation doesn't impose any limits at all. It describes how fast will we grow.


Jack shit....the sort of term resorted to by bankrupt commentators....Before we go rushing off to fly to the stars in the old buckets that lamentably pass off as star cruisers....lets get the basic auditing and reporting systems for our global oil resources tidied up here on terra firma. As things stand, in the current environment of zero bookeeping as regards core resources, I suspect that Bartletts projections may in fact be somewhat optimistic.

We are operating a fossil fuel underwritten economy on significant chunks of our resourcing sourced out of countries that play commercial cat and mouse with these resource inventories and at a time when one of the major suppliers seems to be almost Enron like in its housekeeping.
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Unread postby Dezakin » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 23:18:52

All of our energy can be derived from nuclear. Even transportation infrastructure. Heres a hint: you can synthesize diesel fuel from air and water with nuclear energy inputs.

Oil is just another substitutable commodity. The cheapest source of fuel but by no means the only one.
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Unread postby maverickdoc » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 23:27:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'A')ll of our energy can be derived from nuclear. Even transportation infrastructure. Heres a hint: you can synthesize diesel fuel from air and water with nuclear energy inputs.

Oil is just another substitutable commodity. The cheapest source of fuel but by no means the only one.


can you back those up with articles?
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Unread postby TrueKaiser » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 23:44:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terran', 'D')oubt it, another thing is think about is look at the sheer distance. Nearest star is about 4.3 light years away. It takes light 4.3 years to travel that distance. If you look at space travel today, it wouldn't work it simply won't be fast enough. Even if we travel at 1/10th the speed of light, which seems impossable with todays technology it will still take a pretty long time.


It seems like we've blown it, we've wasted alot of useful resources on junk that we don't need. Seems like no more moon missions, I'm not too sure about the mission to mars. Then remember that they had to get rid of the Russian MIR space station. We do have the International Space station, but wonder how long that's going to last.....

It seems like our motivation towards space is for warfare reasons. Seen if we succeed we will see the militarization of space. Ever heard of whoever controls space, controls the planet?


actually a solar sail would make the trip a 20 years one way. there is also a ion drive being tested by nasa, though they both are not that mature of technology's even though the theory behind them is sound. i know i sound like those nuts here who think there is no problem. i do know there is one, but peak oil just means running out of cheap energy not a one way trip back to the stone age.
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Unread postby trespam » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 23:47:00

Money talks. Words walk. Price of Uranium: Up. Price of Oil: Up. Number of of people who can be supported in space as of this writing: approximately three.

All the rest is largely science fiction. David Goodstein computes whether we can replace fossil energy with reactors. His conclusion: No. He's a physicist. So am I. I'm more than happy to look at proposals for ways in which nuclear will replace fossil fuels, but so far, it's all hot air.

The US has spent approximately $300 billion (or soon will) to estabish a firm foothold in the oil production capital of the world. Hence, with all their expertise, they're grabbing for the goo, not talking about breeder reactors.

But dream on. Just remember: It's not science. It's science fiction. And true, some science fiction proves to be true, or close to the truth. And much proves to be false. Doesn't prove anything.
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Unread postby Terran » Thu 24 Feb 2005, 00:56:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')No, you nimrod, the nearest star is approximately 8 light minutes away. We just need to bring a little more of the energy from that star over to the earth, using mirrors for example.


Forgot to mention outside to solar system, there.
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Unread postby 0mar » Thu 24 Feb 2005, 00:58:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('maverickdoc', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'A')ll of our energy can be derived from nuclear. Even transportation infrastructure. Heres a hint: you can synthesize diesel fuel from air and water with nuclear energy inputs.

Oil is just another substitutable commodity. The cheapest source of fuel but by no means the only one.


can you back those up with articles?


Theoritically, if you have enough energy and raw materials, CO2 can be the basis for any synthesis. It's just fancy footwork with chemistry.
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Unread postby Dezakin » Thu 24 Feb 2005, 00:58:25

maverickdoc: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c')an you back those up with articles?


Yes. I've posted them several times...
The ecomics of nuclear:

http://www.uic.com.au/nip08.htm
(Which with breeder reactors, the price sensitivity to fuel coefficient is reduced by at least a factor of 60)

The uranium supply issue:

http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/prog ... r-faq.html
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf75.htm
http://www.uic.com.au/nip75.htm
http://www.world-nuclear.org/sym/2001/delfrari.htm

Syntheisizing fuel from coal (or any other carbon source and water)

http://www.ieiglobal.org/ESDVol7No4/indirect.pdf

This describes all you need to synthesize fuel: syngas... which is a mixture of CO and H2, and catalysts.

You can crack CO out of limestone to get quicklime and you can suck CO2 from the air by running it over quicklime.

I don't believe we'll actually shoehorn nuclear reactors in such a way to continue using liquid hydrocarbon fuels for everything, but it is economically possible, and thats the purpose of this illustration. Most likely we'll do something cheaper and more effective.

trespam:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')oney talks. Words walk. Price of Uranium: Up. Price of Oil: Up. Number of of people who can be supported in space as of this writing: approximately three.

All the rest is largely science fiction. David Goodstein computes whether we can replace fossil energy with reactors. His conclusion: No. He's a physicist. So am I. I'm more than happy to look at proposals for ways in which nuclear will replace fossil fuels, but so far, it's all hot air.


Ah, the argument by authority. I did a quick look and Goodstein is largely ignorant of nuclear power economics. Find me some arguments of why I'm wrong.

I've detailed many arguments of why I'm right. Theres enough economically recoverable uranium and thorium to last millions of years, and we have the technology to make use of it. Find me some cites of how this just isnt the case.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he US has spent approximately $300 billion (or soon will) to estabish a firm foothold in the oil production capital of the world. Hence, with all their expertise, they're grabbing for the goo, not talking about breeder reactors.


Sure. Oil is damn cheap, and uranium is damn cheap. Theres no need to build breeder reactors with uranium prices as low as they are right now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut dream on. Just remember: It's not science. It's science fiction. And true, some science fiction proves to be true, or close to the truth. And much proves to be false. Doesn't prove anything.


Oh this is as rich as 'Evolution is only a theory'
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Unread postby maverickdoc » Thu 24 Feb 2005, 01:07:08

ok Dezakin. You know your nukes. I am impressed. how much do you know about PO? have you read any books? seen any seminars? how long have you been aware of PO? how did you come to know about it?
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Unread postby Dezakin » Thu 24 Feb 2005, 01:39:44

maverickdoc:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')ow much do you know about PO? have you read any books? seen any seminars? how long have you been aware of PO? how did you come to know about it?


I know a little bit. I suspect we're closer to peak oil than the USGS believes but not as close as next year... Though I would not be shocked if we hit it within five.

But the problem with the peak oil debate is theres just so little transparency of much of the relevant information. OPEC hides most of its actual reserve reporting, so we cynically assume its much lower than the reported reserves to get higher quotas, technology advancements for secondary and tertiary recovery are somewhat downplayed and unpredictable... The actual recoverable oil in a reserve seems to change all the time. I just dont know how close we are to peak oil, and I'm not sure anyone else does either.

I came to know about it because studying energy is my hobby, and oil economics effects the competitiveness of other energy supplies.

One thing I do believe is that if peak oil hits tomarrow, we're all going to be substantially poorer for a little while. My argument is that it will only be for a little while, on the order of a few years to maybe a little over a decade.
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