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can we still reach for the stars?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

can we still reach for the stars?

Postby TrueKaiser » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 02:53:08

well i am watching a show right now on the future of space travel and why we need to do it other then the 7 billion year deadline before the earth in engulfed by our sun when it changes into a red giant of course.

anyway it made me wonder, did we blow our specie's only chance to move off this planet? or could we still go up there at a later time?
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Re: can we still reach for the stars?

Postby Scooter_Rider » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 03:02:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TrueKaiser', 'w')ell i am watching a show right now on the future of space travel and why we need to do it other then the 7 billion year deadline before the earth in engulfed by our sun when it changes into a red giant of course.

anyway it made me wonder, did we blow our specie's only chance to move off this planet? or could we still go up there at a later time?


I wouldn't count on it. We'll be lucky to still have gas stations in 10 years.
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Re: can we still reach for the stars?

Postby k_semler » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 03:12:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scooter_Rider', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TrueKaiser', 'w')ell i am watching a show right now on the future of space travel and why we need to do it other then the 7 billion year deadline before the earth in engulfed by our sun when it changes into a red giant of course.

anyway it made me wonder, did we blow our specie's only chance to move off this planet? or could we still go up there at a later time?


I wouldn't count on it. We'll be lucky to still have gas stations in 10 years.


I agree, and fear that you are right. :(
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Postby clv101 » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 03:24:43

A billion years is an inconceivably long time for a species like humans. I think it's clear that we're not going to be leaving the Earth over the next few decades... but 300 years from now? 1000, let alone a million years ANYTHING could happen.
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Re: can we still reach for the stars?

Postby americandream » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 05:33:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TrueKaiser', 'w')ell i am watching a show right now on the future of space travel and why we need to do it other then the 7 billion year deadline before the earth in engulfed by our sun when it changes into a red giant of course.

anyway it made me wonder, did we blow our specie's only chance to move off this planet? or could we still go up there at a later time?


Lol....is this a serious inquiry....we aren't even sure we're gonna have enough juice to keep the old wagon running in 15 years.....I mean....get real man.
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Postby Itch » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 05:44:34

Seven billion years? Well, shit. We better get started if we only have seven billion years. I can't think of an accurate word to describe how long that is. By that time, the tree of life will grow and be pruned to a stump thousands of times, and if the less hairy apes don't suffocate themselves and others from their own filth, then something else will come along and kill them.
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Postby tmazanec1 » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 07:09:33

First, at this point in time, I think we should go unmanned, not manned. I think the stream of missions will dwindle to a trickle, then stop forever or turn into a torrent, depending on which of my two scenarios come true (I go back and forth on this a lot).
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Postby Doly » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 07:23:05

To put things in perspective, Earth is only about 5 billion years old. In 7 billion years time, any feature that you can recognize on Earth will have been obliterated. Human beings will have become extinct or become something that probably doesn't look at all like human beings today. Even the stars will be in a different position. There is even time for a new intelligent species to evolve in the meantime. Maybe several, in fact.
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Re: can we still reach for the stars?

Postby khebab » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 09:42:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TrueKaiser', 'w')ell i am watching a show right now on the future of space travel and why we need to do it other then the 7 billion year deadline before the earth in engulfed by our sun when it changes into a red giant of course.


Don't forget the big asteroids travelling around earth, I think the probability of a major hit is one every 100,000 years. They managed to wipe out life on earth many times in the past and they certainly will in the future.
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Postby clv101 » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 09:53:56

A few billion years is also enough time for several trillion more barrels of oil to be produced. In a billion years time a new intelligent species could have developed in a very similar way... and could be about to experience their own peak oil!!
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Postby cmlek » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 15:38:24

No. We haven't blown it. And I don't see any lack of space missions in the near future. A thing to remember: space exploration has often been linked with military endeavors and intelligence gathering. So, especially if we on Earth start squabbling for resources in the upcoming years, we'll still spend heartily on the war machine.

For purely educational purposes, unmanned space flight has the highest potential. Space colonization, however, is a pipe dream.
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Postby Tyler_JC » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 15:59:41

Most of the good stuff was wasted on SUVs, Coca-Cola cans, plastic bottles, and Cell phones. The iron, coal, oil, aluminum, copper, tin, zinc, marble, granite, and natural gas has already been used up. The cheap, easy to find stuff was used. Look around :? .

Yes, oil/coal/NG can be replaced over time. But will there be time for all of the coke cans to melt down back into aluminum to make the space ships?

Also, we created lots of alloys. Those will need to be broken down again, collected into easy-to-find pools, rise to the surface, be found by some intelligent life form, constructed into a civilization, built into a space ship, and finally launched into space.

It happened once. It took 4 billion years. Can it happen again, in time?

Without recycling and modern mining, what would the world's copper production be? Remember that everything must be done by hand and refined without coal/oil. I have a feeling we would measure it in tons, not million tons.

All of the current deposits of useful metal were constructed over the course of billions of years. It's unlikely that the conditions leading to our takeover of the planet will happen again.

Earth had its chance at colonizing space. We gave up on that dream in exchange for a $2 gallon of gas, a 6 ton SUV, and a trip to Burger King. Ever wonder why we don't see more aliens buzzing around space? Each planet only has 1 shot at the stars and we used ours up. If we did find intelligent life, it would be busy colonizing the galaxy. We have a planet full of nice little goodies. I have a feeling we would lose that war.

Star Trek means free energy and benevolent aliens. I don't think either would exist.

I borrowed this thought line from someone, I can't remember his/her name :oops: . If you happen upon this, thank you.
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Postby Permanently_Baffled » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 16:10:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', 'A') few billion years is also enough time for several trillion more barrels of oil to be produced. In a billion years time a new intelligent species could have developed in a very similar way... and could be about to experience their own peak oil!!


LOL Clv this is what I was thinking! :lol:

If oil is organic , the 4.4 billion people who are gonna snuff it in the next 100 years will be the future humans energy source !

What a thought, my rotting, decaying body will one day be passed through the exhaust pipe of a 1 million AD SUV! :shock: :lol: :razz:

Great...

PB :-D
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Postby americandream » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 16:53:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'M')ost of the good stuff was wasted on SUVs, Coca-Cola cans, plastic bottles, and Cell phones. The iron, coal, oil, aluminum, copper, tin, zinc, marble, granite, and natural gas has already been used up. The cheap, easy to find stuff was used. Look around :? .

Yes, oil/coal/NG can be replaced over time. But will there be time for all of the coke cans to melt down back into aluminum to make the space ships?

Also, we created lots of alloys. Those will need to be broken down again, collected into easy-to-find pools, rise to the surface, be found by some intelligent life form, constructed into a civilization, built into a space ship, and finally launched into space.

It happened once. It took 4 billion years. Can it happen again, in time?

Without recycling and modern mining, what would the world's copper production be? Remember that everything must be done by hand and refined without coal/oil. I have a feeling we would measure it in tons, not million tons.

All of the current deposits of useful metal were constructed over the course of billions of years. It's unlikely that the conditions leading to our takeover of the planet will happen again.

Earth had its chance at colonizing space. We gave up on that dream in exchange for a $2 gallon of gas, a 6 ton SUV, and a trip to Burger King. Ever wonder why we don't see more aliens buzzing around space? Each planet only has 1 shot at the stars and we used ours up. If we did find intelligent life, it would be busy colonizing the galaxy. We have a planet full of nice little goodies. I have a feeling we would lose that war.

Star Trek means free energy and benevolent aliens. I don't think either would exist.

I borrowed this thought line from someone, I can't remember his/her name :oops: . If you happen upon this, thank you.


Well observed Tyler...well observed....its sad really....we blew undreamt of opportunities for what....like you said.......a Big Mac and fries.
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Postby Dezakin » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 17:21:14

The world isn't ending. Of course we can go to the stars:

http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/

We are going to hit peak oil sometime in the next 50 years, maybe the next 5... but that likely to be no more than a painful recession as we transition from oil to coal for liquid hydrocarbon fuels, and coal to nuclear for electricity.

And we have enough nuclear fuel for several hundred million years at current demand... perhaps only several thousand in growth scenarios but by then we will undoubtably figured out how to use cheap solar and nuclear fusion.

Why does everyone think they're so special to be at the end of civilization?
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Postby Tyler_JC » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 18:02:01

HAVE YOU READ ANYTHING ON THIS SITE???
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Postby Tyler_JC » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 18:11:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Q'). Isn't the world running out of usable fresh water supplies.

A. No, but some countries may have to spend a lot of money on water projects, just as our ancestors did


Fresh, clean, and pure water doesn't just magically appear. Rain comes from somewhere. If the clouds are dirty, the rain will be dirty. If the ground is polluted, the groundwater will be polluted.

I could spend all day refuting almost every point on that foolish website of yours. And, I will.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen the petroleum supply shows clear signs of running out, perhaps the advanced countries should give the poor countries some extra help in making the transition to nuclear and possibly solar energy. By the time petroleum runs out some, maybe even most, of the presently poor countries will no longer be too poor to solve their own energy problems. Any country, which like the U.S. today, spends only 8 percent of its GDP on energy can afford to solve its own energy problems.


If we spend 50% of our GDP on energy, where will the money come from to build TVs, washing machines, and comic books? We only spend 8% on energy and even that is bankrupting us. Look at the trade deficit, most of that is energy related.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever, oil can be extracted from oil shale, from tar sands (as it is in Alberta, Canada) and synthesized from coal. These processes (except for tar sands) are too expensive to compete with just letting it just flow out of the ground in Saudi Arabia, but the technologies were developed when it was thought oil would run out soon. The costs would be affordable. Taking these sources into account we probably have several hundred years supply of oil, provided "greenhouse" warming and soot pollution permit its continued use.


If it can be done, why isn't it being done? Oh, right too expensive. When is it cost-effective? $100 a barrel? The world would be a in deep recession if we ever hit $100 a barrel. Your tar sands would we useless. And on top of that, tar sands are a net energy LOSER. Meaning, they ain't worth nothin'. Why should we use cheap oil to make expensive tar sand oil?
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Postby maverickdoc » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 18:22:44

Clam down Tyler. Dezakin does not really know what he is talking about.

Dezakin you need to read up before posting some thing like that. You might want to start out by watching some videos.

http://smalley.rice.edu (this guy won a nobel prize)

http://www.peakoil.net/Colin.html
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Postby Tyler_JC » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 18:43:23

I took a few chill pills and now I'm fine.

It's reached the point that I expect everyone to know what I'm talking about. I assume everyone who takes the time to become a member has already read a few articles on Peak Oil. I know that the PO aware only make up 1-5% of the population. But some day "we" will make up a large enough group to do something about it; mainly rape and pillage for months on end... 8O 8O 8O
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Postby trespam » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 18:53:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('maverickdoc', '
')
http://smalley.rice.edu (this guy won a nobel prize)

http://www.peakoil.net/Colin.html


I doubly recommend Smalley's video and the powerpoint presentation that he maintains on his site.

We can speculate ad nauseum on reaching the stars, about billions of years in the future. It's called science fiction, and there are plenty of very good science fiction writers. In the next hundred years, there will be very few humans in space. The odds of humans breaking free of the immediate orbit of the earth to return to the moon or go to mars in the same time period is also near zero.

Read Oil, Jihad, and Destiny [link]. It's a bit rough around the edges--e.g. informal--but the author admits it is as much a report as a laboriously edited book. But he presents three economic/depletion scenarios for the next twenty years or so.

Combining Smalley's solid description of our energy problem with Cooke's rough analysis on the economic implications of depletion demonstrates to me that human space flight will still exist for a while for entertainment, but nothing significant will happen.
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