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THE Blackouts/Brownouts Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Thu 01 May 2008, 10:20:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'D')id you bother to read the article, KTH?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he risk of electricity blackouts in Southern California during the hottest days this summer is more than triple that of previous years because power plant additions have failed to keep up with demand, the state's grid manager said.

The likelihood of a Stage 3 emergency, when reserves dip below 3% and power is cut to some customers to prevent a system collapse, rose to 10% for Southern California from 3% in last year's forecast, the California Independent System Operator said in a report Monday.


Emphasis mine. This was in the LA Times, not From the Wilderness. Thought you'd take interest, being a self purported fan of facts and all.


I had already seen this in the paper myself, and strikes me as quite reasonable. Sounds like its time to reregulate electrical generation so that the "lean and mean" concept of the free market shouldn't be quite so "lean and mean".
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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Unread postby seahorse » Thu 01 May 2008, 10:42:00

KTH wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ounds like its time to reregulate electrical generation so that the "lean and mean" concept of the free market shouldn't be quite so "lean and mean".


This points out the problem I have with leaving the "free market" to solve issues. The free market doesn't always work to solve problems and the California blackouts/brownouts, whatever we call them are an example. I'm not saying free market doesn't ever work to solve problems, but it seems that regarding energy, which takes a lot more money than anyone company has to resolve the problem, needs a strong gov't policy of some kind to get things moving in the right direction.

Our aging grid which most agree needs updating and reworking cannot be "fixed" by any one utility, so it becomes a national problem - meaning, gov't intervention which today, no one wants. It seems the same is true if we are going to make a serious move to alternative energy sources like CTL for example or nuclear. These are highly regulated industries anyway, but to get past public opposition, it would take strong gov't action to get them moving today as opposed to waiting for "a crisis" to overcome public opposition - which I think is the worse possible way to try to solve a problem (after the fact).

Gov't action is also needed to get things moving on the individual level with hybrids, EVs, or solar. I know several small businesses that looked into solar this year to offset their rising utility costs, but the cost was so expensive, even with the little tax credits, that it still didn't justify the expenditure. More tax credits are needed, which can only come from the gov't.

Gov't action is needed more in a slowing economy than a robust one, simply bc credit begins to slow or stop for companies and individuals. Tax credits and gov't action are needed to allow a slowing economy to transition to other energy sources which would or could rebuild whole new industries and put people to work. Will that happen? I doubt it.
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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Unread postby frankthetank » Thu 01 May 2008, 11:31:30

Other then wildfires, earthquakes, and mudslides, spoiled food, and heat stroke, the loss of electricity in California wouldn't be that bad.
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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Unread postby roccman » Thu 01 May 2008, 13:47:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '
')
So tell me, if the grid already crapped out years ago, and doesn't recover from such catastrophic events, why are they worried about something happening which already did? Oh THATS right, because they DID recover from it!!


Keep clicking your ruby red slippers together KTH.

You - in the end - will be made a fool by your own words.

I - to date - am in the 5 ring with most all my predictions.

Iran is next.
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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Thu 01 May 2008, 15:29:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '
')Keep clicking your ruby red slippers together KTH.

You - in the end - will be made a fool by your own words.

I - to date - am in the 5 ring with most all my predictions.



Only time will tell Roc. So far the only interesting prediction I've seen which when it doesn't work out you blame on whatever your analyst of the moment said, is the one where you yold the guy to charge up his credit cards last summer in preparation for the grid crash. How well do you think that worked out for him, following your "in the 5 ring" calls?

I'm still waiting for last falls stock market crash...I suppose you want at least some more time on that one? Or have you got a new favorite analyst who said that it was all the last favorite analysts fault?
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Re: Southern California faces higher blackout risk this summ

Unread postby yesplease » Fri 02 May 2008, 00:01:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'I') - to date - am in the 5 ring with most all my predictions.

Iran is next.
QFP. :)
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Re: THE Blackout/Brownout Thread

Unread postby Ferretlover » Tue 10 Jun 2008, 19:16:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ast Coast endures fourth day of heat wave
2 heat-related deaths and 50,000 lose power in upstate New York
NEW YORK - The East Coast on Tuesday was trying to get through a fourth, and hopefully final, straight day of broiling temperatures during a heat wave that has caused some early school dismissals and power outages. …

NY Blackout
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Re: THE Blackout/Brownout Thread

Unread postby hope_full » Tue 10 Jun 2008, 20:29:54

I'm on the East Coast and we've had four days of temps over 100 degrees. Yesterday, it was 102, which shattered all previous records for all of June. This is very odd to have this oppressive heat and it's even more odd to have it so early in the season.

Today, I got in my car and the dash thermometer read 118 degrees. I have never seen it go that high - ever.

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Summertime is the Time for Weird Excuses for Blackouts

Unread postby bratticus » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 17:57:22

Is it just me or in the summer does the enormous number of blackouts that get blamed on small animals and tree branches seem suspicious? I mean we wouldn't want to tell people that their power grid is unstable, unsupportable, etc. right? Give them something they can believe in. Give them a goose.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/113-08022008-1571686.html]Goose causes power outage, traffic jams (link)[/url]
By LINDSEY REDDING
The Intelligencer

...The borough lost power around 6:50 Friday morning. Residents lost power and the traffic lights at the intersections of Route 309 and Route 663, and Hickory Drive and Route 663 stopped working.

...Police believe the outage was caused when a Canada goose flew into a power line.
more blackout, outage news (link)
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Re: Summertime is the Time for Weird Excuses for Blackouts

Unread postby Farknight » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 18:58:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')s it just me or in the summer does the enormous number of blackouts that get blamed on small animals and tree branches seem suspicious? I mean we wouldn't want to tell people that their power grid is unstable, unsupportable, etc. right? Give them something they can believe in. Give them a goose.


No, I think they have problems with all the ACs perhaps. I live on an electric cooperative and in summer especially power will inexplicably drop even in fine weather. I can understand when a storm knocks a line down or something along those lines but too often, in summer, the lights just go out, usually for a short period but up to an hour at times. Weird. I sort of thought it is simply "life with a co-op".
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Re: Summertime is the Time for Weird Excuses for Blackouts

Unread postby kpeavey » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 21:33:18

If all it takes is a low flying goose to knock out power, the problem is larger than is being spoken about. What happens when something more substantial comes along?

---

If electrical rates are able to climb, hopefully it will curb electrical consumption. A recession/depression will also help the situation by reducing commercial and industrial demand. if we can avoid overloading the grid, perhaps repairs/upgrades/maintenance can be performed in a manner that gives us a little more time before the grid goes down permanently.
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Five Years After Blackout, Are We Better Off?

Unread postby MsMarieH » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 17:39:03

link
Thought this was an interesting article, especially since so many assume that they can rely on electric as a backup to oil.

"Five years after the worst blackout in North American history, the country's largest power providers say the problems that turned out the lights on 50 million people have largely been resolved, but they fear that larger, systemic issues could soon lead to even bigger and more damaging outages."

Still kind of cracks me up that a tree brushing a power line in Ohio is what started the whole cascade that took out power to practically half of North America - talk about a butterfly in Duluth flapping its wings causing a typhoon in China.
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Re: Five Years After Blackout, Are We Better Off?

Unread postby Cochise » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 18:13:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MsMarieH', 'S')till kind of cracks me up that a tree brushing a power line in Ohio is what started the whole cascade that took out power to practically half of North America - talk about a butterfly in Duluth flapping its wings causing a typhoon in China.

Very true but that is the reality of connected system like power grid.
Disconnected systems like the gasoline distribution seem to have the great advantage to be decoupled ... if a tank carrying gas explodes, it does effect the distribution of gasoline only in a small area around the accident, BUT don't forget the transportation of it relays in a well maintained network of roads.
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Re: Five Years After Blackout, Are We Better Off?

Unread postby Narz » Thu 14 Aug 2008, 00:35:14

Thanks for the article. :)
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Re: Five Years After Blackout, Are We Better Off?

Unread postby DrillBites » Thu 14 Aug 2008, 01:05:52

Are we better off?? No, we are worse off because we have more population on an old system. More homes, more wires, more demand, and no improvements or real upgrades. There is less 'room' in the system for accidents or mistakes. I think its just a matter of time before something just as bad or worse happens.
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Re: Five Years After Blackout, Are We Better Off?

Unread postby patience » Thu 14 Aug 2008, 06:49:37

Sytemic failure, even for a short time, is the best reason I could think of to put up our own solar PV system. Hope I get it fully developed before I need it. The personal and societal costs of a widespread power failure must be enormous. I would prefer not to participate in one.
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Re: Five Years After Blackout, Are We Better Off?

Unread postby joewp » Fri 15 Aug 2008, 02:46:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DrillBites', 'A')re we better off?? No, we are worse off because we have more population on an old system. More homes, more wires, more demand, and no improvements or real upgrades. There is less 'room' in the system for accidents or mistakes. I think its just a matter of time before something just as bad or worse happens.


And don't forget all the "ghost" loads that were added in the last five years such as the chargers for cell phones and iPods that are left plugged in and using electricity unnecessarily, along with that large draw that "instant on" appliances like large screen TVs consume.

And they keep installing more automatic doors where I live, powered by electricity. Not only is there more people, they're also pampered more by automatic doors and extreme air conditioning.

On the whole I see people using more energy than less, even while the prices are rising. That's because most people don't think about it, they think an automatic door is some kind of magic. When I pointed out to a friend that automatic doors that open even when you walk by and don't enter the store increase his electric bill, he was incredulous.

People just don't get it because they slept through physics class in high school.

Just another reason I'm a confirmed doomer, I guess...
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Re: Five Years After Blackout, Are We Better Off?

Unread postby DrillBites » Fri 15 Aug 2008, 15:16:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'A')nd don't forget all the "ghost" loads that were added in the last five years such as the chargers for cell phones and iPods that are left plugged in and using electricity unnecessarily, along with that large draw that "instant on" appliances like large screen TVs consume.

As I understand the numbers, the average home utility bill is about 25% ghost loads. Microwaves, TV’s, stereos, ect. Now just think of what would happen to our electrical grid if we all switched to plug in electric cars??
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'A')nd they keep installing more automatic doors where I live, powered by electricity. Not only is there more people, they're also pampered more by automatic doors and extreme air conditioning.
People just don't get it because they slept through physics class in high school.

Our society is totally pampered by our machines. I believe that, on the whole, we do not know how to survive without them. Stoves, refrigerators, cars, AC, heat. I think that all the things that have made life comfortable have also placed us in a very dangerous situation. The average person will be in very serious trouble when the power fails.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'J')ust another reason I'm a confirmed doomer, I guess...

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Threat of Blackouts

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 17 Oct 2008, 11:17:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Threat of Blackouts October 14, 2008 By Investor's Business Daily:
Energy: The hot months of 2009 might be known as the Summer of Brownouts. And it will be considered a good year, because, unless hundreds of billions are invested in the U.S. power system, the brownouts will turn black.

Blackouts are more than an annoyance. They are costly in terms of economic loss and needless deaths.
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Re: Threat of Blackouts

Unread postby Gerben » Fri 17 Oct 2008, 12:36:55

Good we have an economic crisis. Less demand means no need to increase the capacity yet.
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