I'm posting this in open discussion cause the writer is anonymous, and we all know what that could mean. But still, the way it's written, the mistakes in grammer, makes me feel that it wasn't crafted by a professional bullshitter.
[quote]A letter from oil exploration insider
by Anonymous
I work for a major international oil company, in the exploration area. Peak oil is a fact – we are all on the back side of the bell curve.
While this is true, it might be better to term it the “Cheap-Oil Peakâ€
PeakOil is You
Oil "Insider" says we've peaked, and worse . . .
Oil "Insider" says we've peaked, and worse . . .
by ararboin » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 23:08:25
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by EnviroEngr » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 23:18:20
Pup, your thoughts on this?
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| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
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(---------< Temet Nosce >---------)
__________________________
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
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(---------< Temet Nosce >---------)
__________________________
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by Geology_Guy » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 23:37:54
Good post. Same sort of stuff I hear from fellow geologists.
If you look at the USGS world oil forcast they are counting on huge amounts of oil from the high arctic and new technologies. I hope they are right.
If you look at the USGS world oil forcast they are counting on huge amounts of oil from the high arctic and new technologies. I hope they are right.
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Re: Oil "Insider" says we've peaked, and worse . .
by eric_b » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 00:12:21
Great post. Thanks for sharing. It just reaffirms my gut feeling and
also what some geologist friends have told me.
I like how he slams all the ungrateful consumers out there!
Like I've said before, too many sheeple take things like cheap
gas as some sort of god given right.
And the 10 year figure he gave also jives with what I've been
feeling... if we're lucky.
-Eric B
also what some geologist friends have told me.
I like how he slams all the ungrateful consumers out there!
Like I've said before, too many sheeple take things like cheap
gas as some sort of god given right.
And the 10 year figure he gave also jives with what I've been
feeling... if we're lucky.
-Eric B
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by gg3 » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 03:07:01
Interesting. Yeah, has the ring of truth to it.
Particularly interesting point about the cost of recovery going up along with the price of oil itself, so there won't be a point at which the high value of oil is sufficient to get "uneconomic" reserves produced.
Ten years if "everyone plays nice." Hmm.
Particularly interesting point about the cost of recovery going up along with the price of oil itself, so there won't be a point at which the high value of oil is sufficient to get "uneconomic" reserves produced.
Ten years if "everyone plays nice." Hmm.
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by savethehumans » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 04:52:14
A letter like this was long overdue to be written!
Thanks for posting the entire letter here, ararboin. I can't get printer friendly copy on Energy Bulletin right now, and the original site is no better....This is beautiful! Thanks again!
Anyone who wonders if Peak Oil is being exaggerated should be directed to this letter immediately!
Ten years? I repeat his own words in the next to last paragraph, which certainly says it for ME, too:
[quote]It is not a question of “ifâ€
Thanks for posting the entire letter here, ararboin. I can't get printer friendly copy on Energy Bulletin right now, and the original site is no better....This is beautiful! Thanks again!
Anyone who wonders if Peak Oil is being exaggerated should be directed to this letter immediately!
Ten years? I repeat his own words in the next to last paragraph, which certainly says it for ME, too:
[quote]It is not a question of “ifâ€
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by Pops » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 09:34:19
Just thought I’d mention that was originally posted by George Ure at www.urbansurvival.com - one economist who is concerned about PO among other things.
He also provides a link to this site, thanks George.
He also provides a link to this site, thanks George.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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by Kingcoal » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 09:52:40
I also believe we have peaked and are riding the downside. There is a lot of evidence to support this.
1. The Saudis keep promising to increase production, then turn around and say they've changed their mind. Maybe they can't increase production.
2. Where honest, peer reviewed data is available, wells are peaked or peaking everywhere.
3. The world wide glut of sour crude appears to be drying up.
1. The Saudis keep promising to increase production, then turn around and say they've changed their mind. Maybe they can't increase production.
2. Where honest, peer reviewed data is available, wells are peaked or peaking everywhere.
3. The world wide glut of sour crude appears to be drying up.
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by clv101 » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 10:02:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'I') also believe we have peaked and are riding the downside. There is a lot of evidence to support this.
I don't think so. 2004 saw an average daily production significantly up on 2003. If we are already in a production decline in Feb 05 that means no plateau at all... I would expect a couple of years bouncing along a plateau before we embark on the inevitable decent. Looking at the megaproject data, there seems to be quite a lot of new production coming on line this year and next, enough to replace the depletion rates from the countries that we know are depleting.
The only thing that could cause peak before 2007 is an unexpected even like war in Iran, regime collapse in Saudi Arabia, peak oil in Saudi Arabia etc… Whilst these are possible within the next few months while they don’t happen I think peak won’t occur until 2007/8.
"Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
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by pup55 » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 12:43:28
I agree with a lot of it.
He is a little low on the current day rate, either that or the industry trade press is a little high. Onshore looks like about $60,000 and offshore is upwards of $160,000 depending on how deep the water is.
Petroleum News
Rigzone
The part about all of the rigs being ancient, and also, a shortage of people to operate them, I believe this to be correct on the basis of what I have read.
Despite this, people are drilling holes. There was a recent report to the effect that this activity has basically doubled in the last year, along with the 50% increase in price. Maybe a lot of this activity is being done by the Chinese and Russians, and not by the Americans. Gotta consider that this fellow is writing from strictly an American point of view.
There is one interesting point he touched on, and we should probably study a little bit, which is, how does the decision get made to drill? He implies below that the energy glut and low price situation of the 90's has some of the people in this industry really leery to make big investments to expand capacity, at least in rig construction. Also, you know that the major oil companies are run by a lot of bean counters at the moment, rather than oil men that are used to taking risks, thus the current practice of obtaining reserves by buying out a competitor rather than exploring and drilling holes in the ground.
Kind of interesting, though. Gotta admire the guy for writing it.
He is a little low on the current day rate, either that or the industry trade press is a little high. Onshore looks like about $60,000 and offshore is upwards of $160,000 depending on how deep the water is.
Petroleum News
Rigzone
The part about all of the rigs being ancient, and also, a shortage of people to operate them, I believe this to be correct on the basis of what I have read.
Despite this, people are drilling holes. There was a recent report to the effect that this activity has basically doubled in the last year, along with the 50% increase in price. Maybe a lot of this activity is being done by the Chinese and Russians, and not by the Americans. Gotta consider that this fellow is writing from strictly an American point of view.
There is one interesting point he touched on, and we should probably study a little bit, which is, how does the decision get made to drill? He implies below that the energy glut and low price situation of the 90's has some of the people in this industry really leery to make big investments to expand capacity, at least in rig construction. Also, you know that the major oil companies are run by a lot of bean counters at the moment, rather than oil men that are used to taking risks, thus the current practice of obtaining reserves by buying out a competitor rather than exploring and drilling holes in the ground.
Kind of interesting, though. Gotta admire the guy for writing it.
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by pup55 » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 12:52:35
age of drilling fleet
Here's the link I was looking for earlier.
41% of the drilling fleet, as of 2001, was at least 20 years old.
Here's the link I was looking for earlier.
41% of the drilling fleet, as of 2001, was at least 20 years old.
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by nailud » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 18:58:35
Does anybody know anything about this UrbanSurvival site? If you read the entire page where this letter was originally posted, it brings up all kinds of strange ideas including conspiracy theories, Astrology and some implied trend of increasing earthquake activity. My impression is that the website is groping for any negative information it can find on anything at all. Then when you consider that the letter's author is anonymous, it just makes you wonder.
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
I'm not disputing anything in the letter itself, it was execellent, but I sure would like to know more about UrbanSurvival's agenda.
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
I'm not disputing anything in the letter itself, it was execellent, but I sure would like to know more about UrbanSurvival's agenda.
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Re: Oil "Insider" says we've peaked, and worse . .
by BabyPeanut » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 21:14:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ararboin', 'I')'m posting this in open discussion cause the writer is anonymous, and we all know what that could mean. But still, the way it's written, the mistakes in grammer, makes me feel that it wasn't crafted by a professional bullshitter.
Grammar mistakes can be made by amature bullshitters.
![[smilie=evil5.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/evil5.gif "evil5")
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '6')) For the most part, the biggest fields have been discovered world wide. What remains is technologically prohibitive (water depth, downhole temperature or sheer depth of the deposit). We are all fighting for the scraps as things exist today, with the exception of the African coast. There, we are fighting for our lives as well as oil. I have personally been shot at during overseas stints, and once held hostage by guerillas as they blew up our rig while we watched. We are not a bunch of sissy-boys in this industry, but we also have wives and children. West African production will never increase appreciably until their governments achieve stability. In other words, West Africa cannot help us in the foreseeable future.
This part is easy to demonstrate as true.
http://www.reuters.co.za/locales/c_news ... ID=7540176
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ix protesters shot dead at Nigerian oil terminal
Fri February 4, 2005 2:49 PM GMT+02:00
By Segun Owen
WARRI, Nigeria (Reuters) - Nigerian security forces shot dead six protesters on Friday at an oil export terminal operated by U.S. energy giant ChevronTexaco, a community leader said.
Hundreds of villagers from the Ugborodo community stormed the Escravos terminal near the oil city of Warri early on Friday and broke into the compound to protest against the lack of development in their village and to demand contracts and jobs.
"It was a peaceful protest, but instead of talking to us they sent the military to shoot us. About six of our people have been shot dead and about 10 critically wounded," Austin Ajurenmisan told Reuters by telephone from Escravos.
ChevronTexaco said it could not confirm the death toll from the fighting at the 300,000 barrel per day terminal, but said its production and exports from the world's eighth largest exporter were not affected.
"We do not have details from the government about security operations on the tank farm," a company spokesman said.
"As far as our activities are concerned, we continue to produce and there is no impact on exports."
A Reuters eyewitness in the nearby city of Warri said 13 people with gunshot wounds, including one with a bullet in the eye, were in hospital there.
A spokesman for the military task force in the delta declined to comment.
The Ugborodo community leader said about 40 demonstrators were trapped at the facility after security forces dislodged most of the demonstrators and locked the gates.
VITAL ASSETS
ChevronTexaco operates the terminal on behalf of a joint venture with state-run Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. The government classifies oil export terminals as assets vital to national economic security and they are protected by soldiers under instructions to shoot invaders.
Feuds between oil companies and villagers are common in the vast wetlands of the Niger Delta, which pumps most of Nigeria's 2.3 million barrels per day of oil.
Many communities feel robbed of the riches in their tribal lands and often resort to extortion, attacks and hostage taking to secure basic services such as schools, health care and infrastructure which are not supplied by the government.
The area around Warri is even more volatile because two rival ethnic groups compete for the oil wealth, which has led to bloody ethnic clashes in the past.
Ethnic violence in March 2003 forced oil multinationals to evacuate facilities in the western delta around Warri, closing nearly 40 percent of the nation's output.
Chevron, Nigeria's third biggest operator, has yet to restart 140,000 bpd closed during that violence.
The company said last week it may take another 2-3 years to recover because of serious damage to oil wells and pipelines caused by sabotage and looting.
In December, hundreds of unarmed villagers from another village in the eastern delta besiged three oil platforms operated by ChevronTexaco and Royal Dutch Shell in a dispute over jobs and development, forcing the multinationals to shut in about 100,000 bpd for six weeks.
Last year, the threat of "all out war" by a local warlord in the eastern delta helped push world oil prices above $50 per barrel for the first time.
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