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THE Peak Food Thread pt 2

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THE Peak Food Thread pt 2

Postby Eli » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 23:01:04

Hey is this a problem?




Financial Times$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The global food crisis intensified on Tuesday as Kazakhstan, one of the world’s biggest wheat exporters halted foreign sales and rice prices shot to a record high after Indonesia stopped its farmers from selling the grain abroad.
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Re: Food riots 'an apocalyptic warning'

Postby DantesPeak » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 23:47:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'H')ey is this a problem?




Financial Times$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The global food crisis intensified on Tuesday as Kazakhstan, one of the world’s biggest wheat exporters halted foreign sales and rice prices shot to a record high after Indonesia stopped its farmers from selling the grain abroad.


Yes.

Well at least we have an idea what's going to happen once its realized there's not enough oil to go around too - Countries will just stop exporting.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ndonesia bans most private exports of rice
By John Aglionby in Jakarta

Published: April 15 2008 19:33 | Last updated: April 15 2008 19:33

Indonesia, one of the world’s largest rice consumers, banned virtually all private exports of the crop on Tuesday in a bid to depress domestic prices and rein in soaring inflation.

The move will prevent farmers, who are enjoying an unexpected bumper harvest, from capitalising on the growing disparity between domestic and international prices. It should also relieve escalating inflation, which hit an 18-month high of 8.2 per cent last month.


FT
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Re: Food riots 'an apocalyptic warning'

Postby mos6507 » Wed 16 Apr 2008, 00:12:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')How do you enable them to do that?


Help with family planning/ education and empowerment of women
Help with watershed management and "sustainable agriculture"/permaculture


Hasn't some of this stuff already happened in the 3rd world and had limited results?
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Al Jazeera Piece On Food Shortages

Postby mattduke » Mon 21 Apr 2008, 20:16:33

http://youtube.com/watch?v=z6mGIHy6Nmo
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Re: Al Jazeera Piece On Food Shortages

Postby Novus » Mon 21 Apr 2008, 20:53:03

The guy at the end representing Big Ethanol is a major arse. He is raving about some stupid technology that might exist in 5 years while millions go hungry right now. He is a modern day Marie Antoinette with a neo take on 'let them eat cake.'
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Re: Al Jazeera Piece On Food Shortages

Postby nemo » Tue 22 Apr 2008, 03:51:11

Al Jazeera is in the forefront of investigative television reporting once again. I'm not surprised, but it's a noteworthy phenomenon nonetheless.
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Re: Al Jazeera Piece On Food Shortages

Postby Eli » Tue 22 Apr 2008, 10:15:15

AL Jazeera how can you trust anything they say?

Just kidding, nice piece. Corn ethanol needs to be stopped now it is the worst idea ever. The last few minutes prove that fact.
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Re: Al Jazeera Piece On Food Shortages

Postby bmwintheshop » Tue 22 Apr 2008, 13:13:15

U.S. Corn exports have actually gone up the in the last two years:

http://www.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrqg.aspx
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby Impervius » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 01:39:45

First people will start eating dogs and cats. Then they will move on to rats. Finally people WILL resort to cannibalism. We are gonna see that here in the USA within our lifetimes.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby copious.abundance » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 01:51:03

--> Record World Wheat Crop Seen Easing Food Prices <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Record World Wheat Crop Seen Easing Food Prices

London, May 30 - Global wheat production is set to soar to a record high this year, taking some of the steam out of the food inflation crisis which has caused severe hardship and even rioting in several developing countries.

The London-based International Grains Council raised on Friday its forecast for world wheat production in 2008/09 by 5 million tonnes to a record 650 million tonnes.

The inter-governmental body said wheat prices had already fallen by 25 to 50 percent from peaks set in March, adding that the favourable outlook and India's successful harvest had helped to ease food supply concerns.

The IGC raised its crop estimate for this year's harvest in India, the world's second largest wheat producer after China, to 76.8 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 75.5 million and last year's 75.8 million.

The upward revision also reflected improved prospects in several countries in eastern Europe including Russia, Ukraine, Poland and Romania.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby copious.abundance » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 02:14:46

Well let's see . . .

Wheat production is projected at around 650 million tonnes.
Wheat consumption is projected at around 632 million tonnes.

Which leaves us with a surplus of 18 million tonnes.

Looks like You. Will. Be. Able. To. Eat. After. All.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby Cochise » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 02:26:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')ell let's see . . .

Wheat production is projected at around 650 million tonnes.
Wheat consumption is projected at around 632 million tonnes.

Which leaves us with a surplus of 18 million tonnes.

Looks like You. Will. Be. Able. To. Eat. After. All.


we will be able to eat next year, but as the oil production declines, i would not count on too many of this good years.

The question is not whether the food supplies will decrease, but how fast it will.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby Bottomfisher67 » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 02:30:08

This nation needs LESS Food, it needs to go on a diet, too many fat people!!
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby syrac818 » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 02:33:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')ell let's see . . .

Wheat production is projected at around 650 million tonnes.
Wheat consumption is projected at around 632 million tonnes.

Which leaves us with a surplus of 18 million tonnes.

Looks like You. Will. Be. Able. To. Eat. After. All.


That was awesome, lol. Seriously. :lol:
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby Micki » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 03:09:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irst people will start eating dogs and cats. Then they will move on to rats. Finally people WILL resort to cannibalism. We are gonna see that here in the USA within our lifetimes.


Which other starving nation has taken up cannibalism as stapel diet?
Can't say I heard about any cases of cannibalism from India, Biaffra, Ireland during potato famine, Cambodia during Pol Pot etc.
The modern cases of cannibalism I've heard about have been more ritualitic, like eating enemies body parts during cultural revolution or lonely weirdos like that Armin guy in Germany and some serial killers. The only case I can think of where they cannibalized in order to survive was that football (or rugby?) team in the plane that came down in the Andes during the 70s.
So why do we think cannibalism now suddenly will be preferred to starvation?


EDIT: Sorry, just remembered I did hear some stories about Cannibalism by hungry soldiers in Stalingrad as well.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 03:47:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')ell let's see . . .

Wheat production is projected at around 650 million tonnes.
Wheat consumption is projected at around 632 million tonnes.

Which leaves us with a surplus of 18 million tonnes.

Looks like You. Will. Be. Able. To. Eat. After. All.


That was awesome, lol. Seriously. :lol:


18 million tons = 36,000,000,000 pounds (40,320,000,000 if British tons)

world population = >6,000,000,000 people

which means that excess production = <6 pounds per person or six one pound loaves of bread per person. (<6.72 pounds per person if a British ton)

Yeah big excess :roll:


Math help online

Image
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby vetusfirma » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 04:09:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irst people will start eating dogs and cats. Then they will move on to rats. Finally people WILL resort to cannibalism. We are gonna see that here in the USA within our lifetimes.


Which other starving nation has taken up cannibalism as stapel diet?
Can't say I heard about any cases of cannibalism from India, Biaffra, Ireland during potato famine, Cambodia during Pol Pot etc.
The modern cases of cannibalism I've heard about have been more ritualitic, like eating enemies body parts during cultural revolution or lonely weirdos like that Armin guy in Germany and some serial killers. The only case I can think of where they cannibalized in order to survive was that football (or rugby?) team in the plane that came down in the Andes during the 70s.
So why do we think cannibalism now suddenly will be preferred to starvation?


EDIT: Sorry, just remembered I did hear some stories about Cannibalism by hungry soldiers in Stalingrad as well.


but micki, your not cool if you don't scandalize by using the word cannibal. and there is also the donner party.

I kind of think they will make good fertilizer, and we are gonna need fertilizer, you know like the pilgrims. Or we could boil them down like whale's and sell the oil, or use it in lamps. Romans had a lot of luck burning them. And people are cheap, look how many there are, and its a renewable resource, you will never run out.

Maybe we could make a book about 101 uses for......well you get the idea.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 04:34:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')ell let's see . . .

Wheat production is projected at around 650 million tonnes.
Wheat consumption is projected at around 632 million tonnes.

Which leaves us with a surplus of 18 million tonnes.

Looks like You. Will. Be. Able. To. Eat. After. All.


Time for more,

Image

Wheat production is suppose to run 650 million tonnes or 18 million tonnes over projected consumption.

Lets see if we can remember how to figure percentages?

what percent of 650 is 18

or

x/100 multiplied by 650 = 18

650x = 1800

x= 2.77%

So what you are saying OF is that there is a 2.77% margin of error between production and consumption. Doesn't sound as worthy of the confidence that you put into it...

at least I hope I'm never dependant upon a 2.77% margin of error
------------------

edit: not to steal your thunder Drifter... I missed your post until it was quoted.

Cur
Last edited by wisconsin_cur on Wed 25 Jun 2008, 04:46:47, edited 1 time in total.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby cube » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 04:42:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')ell let's see . . .

Wheat production is projected at around 650 million tonnes.
Wheat consumption is projected at around 632 million tonnes.

Which leaves us with a surplus of 18 million tonnes.

Looks like You. Will. Be. Able. To. Eat. After. All.


A 3% ton worldwide surplus of wheat between supply and demand not a very large buffer. :roll:
Once you add in a 1% world population growth rate the number just gets worse.
Does anyone have the stats for corn and rice?
50% of world human calorie intake comes from just those 3 staples: wheat, rice, corn.

cube's 333 theory
1) keep an eyeball on those 3 foods
2) production of all 3 will eventually drop
3) repeat this 3 years in a row
add this up == Cannibalism :twisted:
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby kokoda » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 05:28:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')ell let's see . . .

Wheat production is projected at around 650 million tonnes.
Wheat consumption is projected at around 632 million tonnes.

Which leaves us with a surplus of 18 million tonnes.

Looks like You. Will. Be. Able. To. Eat. After. All.


One bad year and Australia's wheat production dropped by a third. It went from 37 million tons to 25 million.

You might be closer to the bread line than you think ... literally.
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