[kmann]

Highlights from the latest OMR:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal oil supply increased by 185 kb/d in February to 87.5 mb/d

[joewp]

How much of that increase is real oil and how much is ethanol and biodiesel? I don't trust "all liquids" numbers because of so much double counting. There was a guy from the IEA in my kitchen yesterday trying to grab the oil I fried some Tater Tots in.

[kmann]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'H')ow much of that increase is real oil and how much is ethanol and biodiesel? I don't trust "all liquids" numbers because of so much double counting. There was a guy from the IEA in my kitchen yesterday trying to grab the oil I fried some Tater Tots in.

[TonyPrep]

Look at the latest short term energy outlook from the EIA. It has the February figure at 86.22. Why the discrepancy with the IEA figures? But check out the consumption figures and the stock draw figures. It shows no overall monthly stock build since September 2006. According to those figures, we are already in decline, as regards production versus demand.

[smiley]

A new set of jewels from the latest OMR, (available at: http://omrpublic.iea.org/)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')on-OPEC Decline Rates – Stripping Out the ‘Noise’

Non-OPEC supply has consistently lagged analyst expectations since 2004. Some assign this to accelerating decline rates, with a conclusion that it will preclude material future growth in supply. Our analysis suggests that, while sizeable volumes of non-OPEC crude and condensate have to be replaced due to depletion, averaging nearly 2 mb/d per annum (pa) so far this decade, raw year-on-year production data have to be treated with caution. This data can exaggerate decline due to resource depletion, by masking temporary or systematic reductions in output from other causes.

[shortonoil]

smiley quoted:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')here is no compelling evidence that aggregate decline is picking up speed, after non-geological factors have been accounted for.

[Cashmere]

"Two men sitting on the railroad tracks, having a picnic and contemplating life."

A: You hear that CHUG a chug uh CHUG a chug uh CHUG a chug uh?
B: Ignore it, that's just noise.

[TheDude]

Corrected link to OMR. (Ya included the close parentheses in the URL, oops!)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')rojected global oil product demand in 2008 is little changed at 87.5 mb/d, with downward pressures from weaker economic growth in the OECD mostly offset by stronger FSU projections.

[Graeme]

IEA Cuts 2008 Oil Demand Forecast, Biggest In 7 Years

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he International Energy Agency said it has cut its 2008 oil product demand forecast by 310,000 barrels per day amid fears the economic slowdown in the U.S. could reduce consumption.

The energy adviser to 27 oil consuming countries said in its April monthly report it sees oil product demand this year at 87.2 million barrels per day (bpd), against 87.5 million bpd forecast in last month's report.

The agency highlighted expectations of slowing economic growth, especially in the high-consumption OECD countries, as a major factor in the revision.

[Gerben]

Supply = Demand
Oil extraction will be lower than expected. Since we are heaving record-high prices, it's not about lack of demand. It's demand destruction due to high prices.

[joe1347]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', 'S')upply = Demand
Oil extraction will be lower than expected. Since we are heaving record-high prices, it's not about lack of demand. It's demand destruction due to high prices.

[Gerben]

I doubt it's an OPEC strategy to create demand destruction. Demand destruction is a slow process and partly irreversible (people buying more efficient cars and moving to houses closer to work).

OPEC strategy is about profit maximalisation. When demand is very inelastic, you can make a lot more money by selling a bit less. That is what OPEC does: raise the price by limitting extraction when supply outstrips demand.

There is a danger by that: if you do not control enough production capacity, others may step in with their own oil. Luckily for OPEC others do not have enough capacity to flood the market. Also there are no easy alternatives to replace oil.

OPEC has an interest in maintaining a stable price because temporarily high prices destroy demand and low prices reduce returns. The optimal price depends on their current and future extraction capabilities.

OPEC would not want record prices and the creation of demand destruction unless it mirrors their ability to extract more oil (now or in the near future).

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', 'S')upply = Demand
Oil extraction will be lower than expected. Since we are having record-high prices, it's not about lack of demand. It's demand destruction due to high prices.

[TheDude]

Reuters

Dig this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')obuo Tanaka said he was met with silence from an audience which includes heavyweight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, when he asked if they shared the IEA's view that prices were too high.

"When I spoke from the podium I asked the ministers, 'Do you agree with me that current prices are too high' -- totally quiet. When I asked the question, 'Are there any ministers who don't agree -- total silence."

[Twilight]

They were probably overcome by embarrassment for him.

Ever had one of those moments in a meeting, when someone makes a complete fool of themselves by asking something really stupid? What can you do but stare at the desk while you wait for someone willing to hazard an attempt at sugar-coating a reply without sounding patronising to speak up?

[Mquinon3]

Yea, that happened to me at a meeting for a psychology study we were doing on a group and I asked, "How is this study going to help people?"

[TonyPrep]

The highlights of the latest Oil Market Report estimates oil production fell 400kbpd in April, to 86.8 mbpd. This implies a markdown in the March figure from 87.34 to about 87.2 mbpd.

The IEA are now estimating demand of only 86.8 mbpd in 2008. So production will have to stay close to April's level to avoid major stock draws. Only about 6 months ago, the IEA was predicting demand of 88.2 mbpd, in 2008.

[FreddyH]

The differential of 1.4-mbd from EIA stats is getting a bit absurd. It is based on IEA's failure to address energy inputs for BTL, heavy, x-heavy & bitumen processing.

As the TrendLines charts come up for update this month, i've been deleting references to their recent records and/or using EIA data instead:

[thuja]

Hey smart folks- Can you educate me a bit better to the figures they are using. Is that total crude and condensates (all liquids) they are talking about? Is there a separate place to find out exact crude oil production figures? Thanks.

[Doug50]

German Energy Politician, Astrid Schneider, interview with IEA's Chief Economist, Fatih Birol
What follows is an English translation, from German, with Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the IEA. April 2008
http://www.internationalepolitik.de/arc ... _birol.pdf
http://www.internationalepolitik.de/arc ... len--.html

"The Sirens Shrill"

The International Energy Agency (IEA) gives alarm: The world could run out of oil faster than expected - the danger of a supply shortage is rising

Hunger for energy vs. energy shortage: While the demand for oil is on the rise, the production is decreasing - shortages, escalating prices and inflation are looming. When talking to energy politician Astrid Schneider, Faith Biro, chief economist of the IEA demands a change in policy from the member countries. His motto: leave oil before it leaves us.


click to read the interview in english
http://oildepletiondebate.blogspot.com/ ... ation.html