by MonteQuest » Wed 16 Apr 2008, 00:45:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', ' ')If the oil is there, in our own backyards, aren't we going to break open the piggy back and extract what we can? And how long would it take to reach maximum productions from these prohibited areas?
Won't matter much. It's all peanuts.
Take ANWR:
95% Probability 5.7 BBO = .5 mbpd
Mean (Expected)10.3 BBO = .9 mbpd
5% Probability 16.0 BBO = 1.9 mbpd
Seven to 12 years are estimated to be required from the time of approval to explore and develop ANWR to the first production of oil.
From first production to peak will take 3 to 4 more years where the production rate peaks at .9 million barrels per day.
7-12 years to explore and develop
2025 ANWR produces .9 mbpd of oil
By 2025, the US is projected to consume 30 mbpd at a 1.7% annual growth rate.
In 2025, .9 mbpd is 20% of domestic production but only 3% of US demand.
30 mbpd divided by 24 hours = 1.25mbph
EIA, best case scenario would reduce oil prices by $.30 to $.50 per barrel
Reduce oil imports from 68% to 65%.
.9 mbpd is 72% of one daily hour US demand
Conclusion: ANWR would power the US for 43 minutes/day, the rest would have to be imported
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')With Peak Oil becoming more of a household term day by day, I just don't understand why there isn't more of an outcry to start poking holes everywhere there might be oil.