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Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Will "off limit" areas ever be drilled in the US?

Yes
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No votes
No
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Maybe, if we're desperate enough
4
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Total votes : 42

Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby Byron100 » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 12:23:09

With the price of oil setting new highs, and the news that Russia might have actually peaked (they actually admitted this...gasp!), I'd to pose a question that's been in my head for quite some time. Exactly how much oil is locked away in the current "no drilling" zones of the eastern GOM and the continental shelf of the Eastern Seaboard of the US, as well as anything we can get our hands on in Alaska? And how high does the price of oil need to go before the President issues an emergency order to open up drilling in these areas?

All I seem to hear that these no-drill zones will never be tapped for their oil no matter what, but I happen to disagree. What's going to happen when gasoline is $12 a gallon and the trucks are no longer delivering food to grocery stores as oil imports drop off a cliff? If the oil is there, in our own backyards, aren't we going to break open the piggy back and extract what we can? And how long would it take to reach maximum productions from these prohibited areas? With Peak Oil becoming more of a household term day by day, I just don't understand why there isn't more of an outcry to start poking holes everywhere there might be oil. Of course there's the environmental side, but people do tend to care about being able to use their cars and eating food more than the risk of oil spills around Florida and North Carolina...and the day is rapidly drawing near that we're going to be faced with a very stark choice.

Answers, anyone?
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby steam_cannon » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 12:34:52

The stuff is off limits because it's not economical enough for oil
companies to secure rights. And mostly we are talking about finds that
would not actually do much to provide large volumes of oil for the US.
So it's mostly political rhetoric. Like damming up the grand canyon, it
won't help our power situation much.

I'm sure everything that can be opened up, will be. But it ain't going to
do a bit of good.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]TOP 10 OIL INDUSTRY MYTHS

2. Are estimated oil supplies in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
expected to significantly change our long term energy prospects?

No. It is estimated that the coastal plain of the Arctic National
Wildlife Refuge contains no more than a six month supply of oil at
our current consumption rates.

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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 12:55:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', ' ')how high does the price of oil need to go before the President issues an emergency order to open up drilling in these areas?


Do you mean on TV or in real life?

In real life the president can't just issue an emergency order and bypass the laws passed by Congress. Those areas are off-limits because Congress passed laws to that effect. Those laws were passed by the Congress in response to pressure from environmental groups. The democrats control Congress, and they are the party that favors locking up all these lands, limiting oil drilling, and placing more taxes on oil companies.

We may drill in some areas now off limits, but first we'd have to replace the democrats in Congress with people who aren't in the pocket of the radical environmentalists. :)
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 12:58:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', 'T')he stuff is off limits because it's not economical enough for oil
companies to secure rights.


Thats a complete lie. Please don't waste people's time with such falsehoods.
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby steam_cannon » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 13:01:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', 'T')he stuff is off limits because it's not economical enough for oil
companies to secure rights.


Thats a complete lie. Please don't waste people's time with such falsehoods.

I love how Plantagenet can't have a normal conversation outside the Hall Of Flames.

Plantagenet defender of OIL MYTHS, yeah you go girl! :lol:
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby TreeFarmer » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 13:03:46

A number of exploratory wells were drilled off of the southeast coast back in the 1980's. What was or was not found was not publicized.

TF
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby Byron100 » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 15:50:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreeFarmer', 'A') number of exploratory wells were drilled off of the southeast coast back in the 1980's. What was or was not found was not publicized.

TF


I'd love for someone to release those results...just so we know how much oil is there.

Also, if it wasn't cost-effective to secure rights in these areas when oil was $20 a barrel, I would think that that would be a bit different with oil costing $120 a barrel...or $200 a barrel.

But like someone once told me, it's better for us to drain the Middle East dry of their oil before we go about drilling for the last dregs of our own oil, when we *really* need it. I'm just curious as to exactly when this point will be breached, and how this process would occur.
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 16:13:56

ANWR, or ANWAR as I see it often spelled (conflating it with Ghawar I guess!) has only had the one test well drilled, the KIC - whose details are still confidential. It's only the 1002 area that has potential for oil/gas too, covering only 8% of ANWR's area. People don't bring up this fact though. Perhaps this summer we'll see calls for a few more test wells at least, if gas prices go high enough.

ANWR 1002 - it's where the oil's at. We've had a few threads here on ANWR too of course, like Arctic National Wildlife Refuge; The Last Nail in the Coffin.

Simmons says we're hard up for deep water drilling rigs to exploit the continental shelf even if we wanted to - only four more built this year, I seem to recall him describing the ones we have as "rusty," too.
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 18:36:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'A')NWR, or ANWAR as I see it often spelled (conflating it with Ghawar I guess!) has only had the one test well drilled, the KIC - whose details are still confidential. It's only the 1002 area that has potential for oil/gas too, covering only 8% of ANWR's area. People don't bring up this fact though. Perhaps this summer we'll see calls for a few more test wells at least, if gas prices go high enough.


Nope.

Congress closed ANWR to all exploration 20+ years ago.

Clinton vetoed legislation the congress passed to open it up in the 90s, and the Senate dems have since filibustered to death all the Republican attempts to open it up since Bush became president in 2001.

The dems will win additional seats in Congress in this election cycle and Obama, Clinton and McCain ALL say they oppose opening ANWR, so its very unlikely anything will happen to allow drilling or even leasing of land there for another 5-10 years. :)
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby TexasEx2006 » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 22:48:21

ANWR is off limits due to the fact that it is being held as collateral on on debts to the FEDs stakeholders
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby MD » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 23:19:10

It will all be drilled.

It will all be taken.

The cheap and the clean first, followed by the dirty and expensive.

We'll burn it all.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 16 Apr 2008, 00:01:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TexasEx2006', 'A')NWR is off limits due to the fact that it is being held as collateral on on debts to the FEDs stakeholders


Nope.

Its off limits because environmentalists (and their supporters in Congress) don't want the oil industry to be allowed into ANWR.

It may well be leased and drilled eventually, but it isn't likely to be opened up while the dems control Congress. :)
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 16 Apr 2008, 00:36:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TexasEx2006', 'A')NWR is off limits due to the fact that it is being held as collateral on on debts to the FEDs stakeholders


Nope.

Its off limits because environmentalists (and their supporters in Congress) don't want the oil industry to be allowed into ANWR.

It may well be leased and drilled eventually, but it isn't likely to be opened up while the dems control Congress. :)


Au Contrair!!! When the Dems decide they will get more pollitical support from angry voters who want ANWR drilled than they get from Greenpeace and the Sierra Club they will throw the greens overboard and order drilling poste haste!
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 16 Apr 2008, 00:45:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', ' ')If the oil is there, in our own backyards, aren't we going to break open the piggy back and extract what we can? And how long would it take to reach maximum productions from these prohibited areas?


Won't matter much. It's all peanuts.

Take ANWR:

95% Probability 5.7 BBO = .5 mbpd
Mean (Expected)10.3 BBO = .9 mbpd
5% Probability 16.0 BBO = 1.9 mbpd

Seven to 12 years are estimated to be required from the time of approval to explore and develop ANWR to the first production of oil.

From first production to peak will take 3 to 4 more years where the production rate peaks at .9 million barrels per day.

7-12 years to explore and develop

2025 ANWR produces .9 mbpd of oil

By 2025, the US is projected to consume 30 mbpd at a 1.7% annual growth rate.

In 2025, .9 mbpd is 20% of domestic production but only 3% of US demand.

30 mbpd divided by 24 hours = 1.25mbph

EIA, best case scenario would reduce oil prices by $.30 to $.50 per barrel

Reduce oil imports from 68% to 65%.

.9 mbpd is 72% of one daily hour US demand

Conclusion: ANWR would power the US for 43 minutes/day, the rest would have to be imported

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')With Peak Oil becoming more of a household term day by day, I just don't understand why there isn't more of an outcry to start poking holes everywhere there might be oil.


Like we aren't?

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Last edited by MonteQuest on Wed 16 Apr 2008, 01:25:50, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 16 Apr 2008, 01:19:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Conclusion: ANWR would power the US for 43 minutes/day


Assuming all the assumptions you make are correct, 43 minutes a day is about 3% of all US oil consumption.

If the US can meet 3% of our oil needs by developing just one new oil field, and at the same time create good high paying jobs for Americans and generate billions of dollars for the federal treasury through lease sales and subsequent taxes, then why not do it? :)
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 16 Apr 2008, 01:34:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Conclusion: ANWR would power the US for 43 minutes/day


Assuming all the assumptions you make are correct, 43 minutes a day is about 3% of all US oil consumption.

If the US can meet 3% of our oil needs by developing just one new oil field, and at the same time create good high paying jobs for Americans and generate billions of dollars for the federal treasury through lease sales and subsequent taxes, then why not do it? :)


It's not just one new oil field, it's the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

Why not log all the forests?

Kill all the tigers?

Save nothing for the future?

Add more to global climate change?

Rather a short-sighted, short-term selfish notion, you think?
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby big_rc » Wed 16 Apr 2008, 12:45:27

Folks,

I work for Big Oil and there are a couple of unpublicized finds (especially off the coast of California and Florida) that are worth going after. Oil hasn't even really been seriously explored off the coast so I'm probably thinking there are alot more potential plays that I don't know about.

Don't forget that even if Congress lifted all bans today, it would take about a DECADE to get any of that oil to market in this environment. The oil equipment (rigs, workers, etc, etc) are all balls to the walls these days. There is no spare capacity anywhere in the system.
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 16 Apr 2008, 18:03:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Why not log all the forests?

Kill all the tigers?

Save nothing for the future?

Add more to global climate change?

Rather a short-sighted, short-term selfish notion, you think?


No one has suggested any those things except you.

There are no forests in ANWR.

There are no tigers.

The biome in which ANWR sits extends for thousands of kilometers east and west along the Arctic Ocean. It will not be "lost".

Its a simple fact that the footprint of any potential oil development in ANWR would be far far smaller and have a lesser environmental impact then the massively selfish and short-sighted construction of innumerable cookie-cutter housing developments and cheap strip malls and air-conditioned shopping malls and such going on in Sedona and elsewhere around Arizona where you live----
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby gollum » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 07:22:39

I think as a nation we should drill ANWR, CA, and FL with the understanding that these are to be used as a bridge to a sustainable economy, not to extend business as usual. We are not mentally to that point yet.
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Re: Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 01:19:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gollum', 'I') think as a nation we should drill ANWR, CA, and FL with the understanding that these are to be used as a bridge to a sustainable economy, not to extend business as usual. We are not mentally to that point yet.


ANWR is next to the Prudhoe Bay oilfield and the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). It would be very easy to start up exploration and development in ANWR, put the oil into the TAPS, ship it to the lower 48, and increase the supply of oil available to the US.

However, it isn't going to happen as long as environmentalists scare people with the claims that "forests" and "tigers" would be destroyed by ANWR development.
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