[Quicksilver]

(having login problems, this is jericho) Like you said, Russia has oil, gas and coal that it will still be exporting for at least another 20 years. All will easily quadruple, quintuple (the sky's the limit) in price along with other raw materials that Russia exports. The next 20-30 years will be good to Russia. The Russian people deserve a taste of the good life after having a horrible 20th century.

[anarky321]

assuming they dont spend it all on another war in the Caucasus

[Starvid]

Uh-oh.

So what is not plateauing or declining now?

* Canada

* Brazil

* ???

and of course

* the Mideast. The Prize.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')fter finishing my burger flipping shift at the student pub I went down to have a beer, and I ran into the former Swedish Moscow ambassador, another diplomat and the foreign policy head at the Swedish state television news. Very interesting and knowledgeable people, who thought Russian oil production had already peaked or would peak very soon, but that gas production could be increased further.

Among other interesting things the ambassador told me that Putin, whom he had met several times, never looks you in the eye but always looks a bit to the side, in true spook fashion.

A good night.

[retiredguy]

Anarky,

My wife and I were in Karelia in 2006. Agree with what you say. Not much wealth was trickling into that part of Russia.

Outside of a few dachas of well-to-do St. Petersburgers, things looked pretty bleak.

Felt sorry for the poor buggers sitting alongside the road trying to sell berries and mushrooms they found in the forest.

As for the kid who was trying to sell me a badminton net (he had no clue what it was) at the local market in Vyborg (Viipuri).....

[DantesPeak]

Granted this subject has been discussed before, but here is another two new articles on the issue, as it gets more publicity.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ussian Output Slumps As Oil Price Hits a Record
By GUY CHAZAN and NEIL KING JR.
April 15, 2008

Russian oil production, for years a vital font of new crude for world energy markets, has begun to stagnate and even slump, adding to market uncertainties that have helped push oil prices to records even as the global economy founders.

Russian supply in the first three months of this year fell for the first time this decade, averaging 10 million barrels a day, a 1% drop from the year-earlier period, according to the International Energy Agency, the industrialized world's energy watchdog. That is dismal news for a country that saw double-digit-percentage output growth earlier this decade.

The slowdown in Russia, the world's second-biggest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, has intensified already widespread concerns about long-term oil supply amid diminishing output from once-huge fields like Alaska's Prudhoe Bay and Mexico's Cantarell field in the Gulf of Mexico. Fading optimism that strong Russian output this year would offset ebbing flows from once-reliable sources like the North Sea has increased jitters in an already tense oil market.

Oil companies are dealing with the depletion of reserves in western Siberia by diversifying. Lukoil, for example, is focusing on new provinces like the North Caspian Sea, and expanding abroad in places like Turkmenistan.

But even new developments are failing to offset the decline. Sakhalin 1, a huge project off Russia's east coast led by Exxon Mobil Corp., accounted for much of Russia's production growth in 2007. But output there will drop by more than 25% this year, according to OAO Rosneft, the state-run oil giant that is a partner in the project. In a statement, Exxon said it "has met and continues to meet or exceed the project production targets approved by the Russian authorities."

[Cynus]

What a total shock! Wow, who could have known that Russian oil output was going to start to go down?
How about anyone reading PO.com or TOD for the last few years where we know it is happening righ on schedule and just as predicted.

[dohboi]

So isn't that pretty much it? There aren't too many countries left with major proved reserved that haven't peaked, are there? Iraq? Khazakstan? Isn't everything else pretty small potatoes?

And what does the overall rate of decline look like from here? 1% already, and Sakalin 1 will go into 25% decline later this year! What percentage of their total was that facility? Even if it's relatively minor, certainly the overall rate will quickly exceed 2 or even 3 percent. Are any major new operations coming on line soon?

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'S')akalin 1 will go into 25% decline later this year!

[DantesPeak]

Alternative free link to WSJ article:

Moneyweb

[mos6507]

Now you know why Russia really wants arctic oil.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ussian oil production peaked last year, the vice-president of Lukoil, the country's second largest oil group, said in an interview published Tuesday.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Leonid Fedun said Russia's oil production of 10 million barrels a day was the most he would see "in his lifetime".

He added that in terms of production in Russia's oil-rich western Siberia region, "the period of intense oil production (growth) is over" and compared the region to the North Sea and Mexico, where oil production has declined.

[KevO]

and now at the BBC
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7348463.stm

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he future supply of Russian oil is threatened by a likely decline in production levels, one of the country's top oil executives has warned.

Lukoil's Leonid Fedun said $1 trillion would have to be spent on developing new reserves if current output levels were to be maintained.

Recent figures show Russian output fell 1% in the first quarter of 2008.

The possibility of less oil from one of the world's key suppliers will add more pressure to prices now at record highs.

Russian peak?

The surprise fall in Russian oil output in the first part of the year has raised fears about the ability of global supply to keep pace with demand over the next decade.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ussia Hits Peak Oil
Rob Mackrill - Tue 15 Apr, 2008

A Russian oil executive has admitted Russian oil production has hit a peak

Peak Oil theory gets a shot in the arm...

Russia was the new frontier for oil production a few short years ago. Not any more it seems, according to an FT report today...

Russian oil has peaked already according to Leonid Fedun, vice-president of Russian oil giant Lukoil,

[Utopia]

An admission of peak by any country is huge news. Admission of peak by Russia is one of those clarity moments for me. It actually gave me goosebumps.

Though I think oil will be $6000 a barrel and SA will still be saying, "We have spare capacity and can increase at any moment." I know none of us will hold our breath waiting for this admission.

[Fredrik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ukoil's Leonid Fedun said $1 trillion would have to be spent on developing new reserves if current output levels were to be maintained.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fredrik', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ukoil's Leonid Fedun said $1 trillion would have to be spent on developing new reserves if current output levels were to be maintained.

[Fredrik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'W')hy would you spend that when you know it's a waste?
Like buying a home in the US that was $200,000 but is now $140,000 and paying $400,000 for it in the hope that one day ot may sell for $800,000. You simply won't. And with the world's biggest investment bank (Simmons) saying it's all over - you'd take it under advice and do something else

[steam_cannon]

I hope this doesn't cause instability in Europe...

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c')ompared the region to the North Sea and Mexico, where oil production has declined.