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Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby sch_peakoiler » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 09:32:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re we not feeling the effects of no spare capacity right now? Will not the price of oil rise before we ever see rationing?

Well, right now, if you ask me, the oil price is falling.

Good lord... :roll: no spare capacity has created huge volitility in the market. You are trying to pigeon-hole a roller coaster into a straight line so you can debunk it.
Not going to happen.

I personally am not gonna debunk anything (at all). But I tend to think that reallife will debunk something... right on its own, w/o any help.

Please note that you did not answer my two questions above - it is still not clear after how many years of decline you would consider it to be the "terminal decline". Do you agree with my corrections to your answers or what?
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 10:29:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '.')..I personally am not gonna debunk anything (at all). But I tend to think that reallife will debunk something... right on its own, w/o any help.

I think, that beliefs in "no notice catastrophic collapse of civilization", rampant die-off and uncontrollable disease spread in first world are those most prone for debunking by empirical evidence which will come pretty soon.

Civilization, even if it is going to collapse, will take few decades at least to get there (sparing WW III etc), but most likely it will be a long process lasting for many centuries or so.

Die-off (in first world) will take a shape of shortening of life expectancy say from 78 or 80 to 71 or 73, lowering of fertility - already observed in first world, and of slight increase of mortality due to disease and accidents. No more, no less.
Nothing like mass starvation, pandemic disease etc is going to be a significant factor, with few very local exceptions perhaps.
Population will fall to sustainable levels and noone with exception of statisticians, state pension and social security managers will take much notice of it.

Rampnt disease? There will be plenty of SARS or bird flu alike scaremongering around.
There may even be pandemic comparable to Spanish flue - it will come in, go out and get forgotten.

To summarise all of that:
It is "hard landing" theory, what is going to be debunked.
All, what doomers may hope for is "long emergency".
Importance of oil to our civilization is probably overestimated by many members of this forum. PO will really start to hurt badly, once 30 or 50% of production is gone and will not be noticed by public at large until first 10% is gone.
This arguments are only relevant to first world countries.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 11:03:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', ' ') Please note that you did not answer my two questions above - it is still not clear after how many years of decline you would consider it to be the "terminal decline". Do you agree with my corrections to your answers or what?

No.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby sch_peakoiler » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 11:28:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', ' ') Please note that you did not answer my two questions above - it is still not clear after how many years of decline you would consider it to be the "terminal decline". Do you agree with my corrections to your answers or what?

No.

but then give your own answer. Or tell me that you evade my question officially and are not gonna answer it.

The question was - how many years of decline would you consider to be the "terminal decline". The second one is not so important.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 19:29:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', ' ') The question was - how many years of decline would you consider to be the "terminal decline".

The peak will only be known in hindsight.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby sch_peakoiler » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 19:47:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', ' ') The question was - how many years of decline would you consider to be the "terminal decline".

The peak will only be known in hindsight.

Yeah of course, but then you cannot speak of the "decline" can you? Because you can only be sure it was THE decline, after you now there was a PEAK. And this you know only in the hindsight.

Ok, then another question. At which level of production do you expect substantial "doom"? Or distress? Or put it like 7 USD pro gallon? more like 80% of the current? or more like 50% of the current?

Funny though. Speaking in general terms is easy. I think I will do it as well :)
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 19:59:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', ' ') Ok, then another question.

Read my initial post.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby sch_peakoiler » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 20:14:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', ' ') Ok, then another question.

Read my initial post.

I have:)

You say initially: "Problems begin long befor the decline".

I have asked to elaborate on both "long before" and "decline"

You refused.

Nice conversation. Now we are basically at the initial point:)

Anyway - Lets not discuss silly wordings - I will just follow suit and use the same rethoric.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 20:52:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', ' ')You refused.

On the contrary. Asked and answered.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby sch_peakoiler » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 21:05:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', ' ')You refused.

On the contrary. Asked and answered.

this is your answer to the question "How much time is long before"
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Are we not feeling the effects of no spare capacity right now? Will not the price of oil rise before we ever see rationing?

I fail to see an answer to the question "how much time" here. Actually this is not an answer this is a question. I admit, I expected a simple answer to a simple question:) and got another question back...

To the question about the decline you said "We will only know this in the hindsight".

From here follows we will effectively know this when all the oil is pumped out (and it has been proven there is nothing more left:)
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby Revi » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 21:32:00

Monte's initial post on this forum was at the end of 2004. Here we are two years later. What's happened? It is starting. A long slow decline. It took the Roman empire 400 years to decline before the first barbarians sacked the place. Surely we have a few more years. Meanwhile the quality of life deteriorates a little more. The price of food is up. Gas is more expensive. Things go up. Life goes on...
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 21:37:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', ' ')this is your answer to the question "How much time is long before"
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')re we not feeling the effects of no spare capacity right now? Will not the price of oil rise before we ever see rationing?

I fail to see an answer to the question "how much time" here.

Sounds like a personal problem.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')o the question about the decline you said "We will only know this in the hindsight".
From here follows we will effectively know this when all the oil is pumped out (and it has been proven there is nothing more left:)

PFFT! You seem to only wish to stir up rancor.

In the 70's when the Texas Railroad Commission said to pump full out, we saw the peak of US oil in hindsight.

That day will come for the world as well.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby sch_peakoiler » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 21:46:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')ounds like a personal problem.

actually not. I asked if you can elaborate. You can not. So we just leave "long before" as it is and thats it. I will use the same rethoric, no big deal. No personal problem.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')FFT! You seem to only wish to stir up rancor.

no I want the definition for the "decline". You said we know it in "hindsight". Then I asked you to define "hindsight".
stir up rancor? je suis desole:(:(
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the 70's when the Texas Railroad Commission said to pump full out, we saw the peak of US oil in hindsight.
That day will come for the world as well.

As you are not so good at giving formal definitions I will help. I understand what you mean now, but you cant get it formal.
Ok thats it: "As soon as all exporting countries will officially admit not being able to increase production".

EDIT (after rereading) : sorry the definition sucks. It does not account for a fact that there can be decline despite increasing production. Amendment: "As soon as all exporting countries will officially admit not being able to increase production to account for the decline long term."

Maybe you think an exact definition is not important, but it is. Always is.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 22:03:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', ' ') I asked if you can elaborate. You can not.

I did. You just failed to grasp what I said.

I bet the lurkers got it.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby sch_peakoiler » Tue 14 Nov 2006, 22:24:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', ' ') I asked if you can elaborate. You can not.

I did. You just failed to grasp what I said.
I bet the lurkers got it.

depends on a lurker, surely. Next time you ask me to elaborate I will link to this page:)
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby MonteQuest » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 21:50:52

Is it clear now? Long before terminal decline, the effects of peak oil will be felt throughout the economy.

People seem to forget that peak oil is primarily about economics.

The cost for people to access energy and food.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby Last_Laff » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 22:57:59

I definitely understand.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby Pherlin » Fri 18 Apr 2008, 23:04:59

It's been a long time since I last posted, so here goes...

I think the largest problem with the average american is they don't understand what we uesd to have... Some of us, (for a long time myself included,) were taught by society to "Have it all." And even though for a while my only mode of transportation was a bicycle, now that I'm working regularly at a larger company, I've forgotten my roots, in a way.

I'm reminded of something my father told me recently about one of his uncles; He lived in the back of the funeral parlor... I gave him a suprised, somewhat mortified look... He stated "That's how things were; if you had a business, you most likely lived there."

In the pittsburgh region, for the longest time there were churches every few blocks in some areas, because you walked to church, you didn't typically drive there.

And that's the biggest thing people will have to adapt to. Living and working within walking distance will be almsot required for most people. We will have to save our vehicle usage for important things.

To be frank, Myself and my girlfriend last summer typically used our bikes for over half our grocery shopping. Yes, it wasn't a big difference, but it was a difference.

Obviously food would get more expensive, but ideally, if we got to the point where we needed to ration fuel (Hopefully for SENSIBLE transportation uses,) there might actually be some long term benefits for our economy.

Think about it; If you can't get it shipped from thousands of miles away, you have to get it made locally; If you have to get it made locally... somebody's gotta make it. In a bizzare way, I almsot envision (yes, envision) the resurgance of things like bicycle factories, local food production, and other things of that nature.

Of course, that would force the government to take actions that would be against the way they have allowed certain groups to rape our gas supplies. (Yes, I used that word... I think it is bollocks that just because someone makes enough money to drive an SUV, they can guzzle gas and make everyone elses lives more difficult in the long term.)

Now, obviously the problem is a lack of choice; you'd only be able to get foods that were made in your area... but well... something's gotta give somewhere. I'd rather have to grow my own garden foods and eat bland locally made stuff instead of starve because everyone insists on still getting things shipped cross-country on a weekly basis.

Just some random thoughts...
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby KillTheHumans » Sat 19 Apr 2008, 00:28:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')s it clear now?
People seem to forget that peak oil is primarily about economics.

Amazing. So the question that is left, is what is the earliest point in time have you ever said this? Before I told it to you, or after?

See...I don't mind being plagarized when I'm right.
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Re: Post Peak Oil; The Slow Decline?

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 23 May 2008, 23:35:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')s it clear now? Long before terminal decline, the effects of peak oil will be felt throughout the economy.
People seem to forget that peak oil is primarily about economics.
The cost for people to access energy and food.

The effects of peak oil are now being felt throughout the economy long before we go into actual terminal decline.
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