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phil flynn ???

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 13:15:23

This is a hoot. Supposed experts, losing their shirts and failing misearbly with other folks money.
They really are supposed to know about this stuff. I'd have better luck throwing darts at a wall.
As another poster said recently: "we are so fuckingly, fuckity, fucked" ;)
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 11:06:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')topped on short May crude from apprx 11180 at apprx 11105! Sell June crude at 11230 - stop 11300.
Sell May RBOB at 28700 - stop 28850.
Buy May heating oil at 31070 - stop 29710.
Buy May natural gas at 940 - stop 930.
Have a GREAT day!

Phil made a little money on his crude oil short sell, which if I am not mistaken, is rare for one of his short trades, but it looks as though he got lucky and correctly predicted the market top.
Current total: -$14650
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 17:34:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')topped on short May crude from apprx 11180 at apprx 11105! Sell June crude at 11230 - stop 11300.
Sell May RBOB at 28700 - stop 28850.
Buy May heating oil at 31070 - stop 29710.
Buy May natural gas at 940 - stop 930.
Have a GREAT day!

Phil made a little money on his crude oil short sell, which if I am not mistaken, is rare for one of his short trades, but it looks as though he got lucky and correctly predicted the market top.
Current total: -$14650

I really don't understand when:
WTI CRUDE FUTURE (USD/bbl.) 111.780 1.640 1.49 15:09
Did the gifted one actually catch a mini correction, took his profits and then went short again on the real top at 15:09 ??
This is pure genius, no mere mortal can pull off such short term trades.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 18:13:07

His short sale at 112 something has not been filled yet. He did get quite lucky on the little 75 cent correction though.
He could have made an extra $2 on his 11180 trade by taking some money off of the table on Friday. He has done this in the past, setting his stop order too conservatively when he is in the money.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 08:52:49

Update: Phil's crude oil short sale is live, and was very nearly stopped out this morning when crude hit 112.97. If it hits 113, he is out another $700.
Even more recent update:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ay 2008 113.29 111.80 111.80 113.66 111.80 111.76 +1.53

via NYMEX Phil is toast. $700 loss, total -$15350
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby KevO » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 10:57:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '"')we are so fuckingly, fuckity, fucked" ;)

touche
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 13:18:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ttractive' Investment: "This is where the funds want to be,'' said Daniel Flynn, a broker with Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``Rate cuts and a weak stock market make commodities very attractive.''
Bloomberg
Could Phil have a spawn that is now trying to give us investment advice?
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 17:50:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ttractive' Investment: "This is where the funds want to be,'' said Daniel Flynn, a broker with Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "Rate cuts and a weak stock market make commodities very attractive.''
Bloomberg
Could Phil have a spawn that is now trying to give us investment advice?

any spawn of phil would suffer the consequences of inheriting
the looser-Gambler-Arrogant-genome trait in their DNA and would suffer a life long affliction of losing money gambling
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 20:16:47

He is also becoming delusional:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Energy Report A matter of Faith Tue, Apr 15 2008, 13:11 GMT by Phil Flynn
Alaron: The bigger question regarding the peak oil production theory is how much more oil is there to be discovered under the sea. New technologies have opened up a new frontier and most of the earth is mainly well under the sea. That might not help us today but maybe that’s why oil is trading cheaper further out. High prices always eventually cure high prices.
FX Street
High prices cure high prices?? He said we wouldn't get past $100 and then kept saying the top was in. So why aren't prices lower Phil?
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Wed 16 Apr 2008, 10:20:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell May RBOB at 28700 - stop 28850.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ay 2008 2.8825 n/a n/a 2.8950 2.8738 2.8810 +0.0015

More bad news for Phil. This RBOB trade was stopped out yesterday, for a loss of 1.5 cents, or $630. new total -$15980
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')topped on short June crude from apprx 11230 at apprx 11300. Sell June Crude at 11580 - stop 11680.
Buy May heating oil at 31900 - stop 31700.
Buy May natural gas at 1010 - stop 999.

He conveniently left this off of his blog this morning, though.
Poor Phil. So stubborn.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Wed 16 Apr 2008, 18:11:46

Whenever Flynn Capitulates from losing too much blood and goes long, then , that will mark a short term top.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 18 Apr 2008, 12:21:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell June crude at 11600 - stop 11650.
Buy May heating oil at 31900 - stop 31700.
We're long May natural gas from apprx 1010 - raise stop to 1015

Update: Unless I fell into a time warp, Phil's natural gas trade at 1010 never got filled Thursday, so how he claims to have been long from 1010 is beyond me. It appears he had a "Deus et Machina" moment and decided he was long.
NG is up 17 cents today for some reason, probably on the stronger economy.
He is still trying to short crude when it hits the record. What does it tell you when you have about five losing trades trying to do this? You are fighting the trend.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Fri 18 Apr 2008, 18:25:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell June crude at 11600 - stop 11650.
Buy May heating oil at 31900 - stop 31700.
We're long May natural gas from apprx 1010 - raise stop to 1015!

Update: Unless I fell into a time warp, Phil's natural gas trade at 1010 never got filled Thursday, so how he claims to have been long from 1010 is beyond me. It appears he had a "Deus et Machina" moment and decided he was long.
NG is up 17 cents today for some reason, probably on the stronger economy.
He is still trying to short crude when it hits the record. What does it tell you when you have about five losing trades trying to do this? You are fighting the trend.

our friend needs to go and study elementary statistics.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 22:07:11

Sunday night, Phil is sitting there with the remote with his hand under his belt like Al Bundy like we would expect and meantime, the word from the market is not good:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')une 2008 116.15 n/a 116.54 116.54 n 116.02 116.16

June hit 116.50. Phil is stopped out. Another $500 down the drain trying to short crude.
-$16480 Poor Phil.
This morning's update: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell June crude at 11700 - stop 11750.
Buy June heating oil at 32400 - stop 32200.
Stopped on short May RBOB from apprx 29700 at apprx 30000. Sell June RBOB at 30300 - stop 30500.
We're long May natural gas from apprx 1010 - raise stop to 1030!

I can't find where he was short RBOB but he is admitting to another $1200 loss.
His newest crude oil short sale is now live.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 22 Apr 2008, 15:56:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell June crude at 11700 - stop 11750.

Another $500 down the drain. -$16980
Phil: Go long and stay long
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Tue 22 Apr 2008, 18:09:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell June crude at 11700 - stop 11750

Another $500 down the drain. -$16980
Phil: Go long and stay long

if he does go long now, he will have nightmares that he will ride it down from here. So the best thing is if he stays short and tries to recover some of his huge losses.
Statistically, this is quite significant that he can be wrong this much.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 24 Apr 2008, 08:14:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')topped on short June crude from apprx 11700 at apprx 11750. Sell June crude at 11800 - stop 11850.
We're long June heating oil from apprx 32400 - stop 32500!
Sell June RBOB at 30300 - stop 30500.
Long May Natural gas from apprx 1010 sold at apprx 1067!!! Bought June natural gas at apprx 1077 - stop 1050.

Here was Phil yesterday. He evidently had another "Deus et Machina" moment by declaring himself long on June HO at a profit without the market getting him in at his suggested starting point.
He is now long natural gas at 1077.
And, he refuses to get the point on crude oil. He was stopped into the 11800 trade yesterday. He is also short RBOB four weeks before Memorial Day.
Update:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')une 2008 3.2958 n/a n/a 3.3139 3.2491 3.3072 -0.0114
Phil is stopped out on the HO trade above, with a profit of 1 cent or $420.
Also, June natural gas did not get anywhere near 1077 yesterday, so that is more fiction.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 25 Apr 2008, 11:49:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell Jun Crude 11830 stop 11930
Long June Heating 32400 raise stopped to 32600!!
Sell June Heating oil at 33300 stop 33500
Sold June RBOB apprx 30300!! Stop 30500!
Long June Natural gas on the rollover at apprx 1077 stopped apprx 1080!!
Buy June Natural Gas 1060 stop 1030

Phil is getting harder and harder to follow, because he is changing his stops mid-day, and in the last few days he has started to invent trades out of thin air.
As of now, he is short June crude oil at 10800, and is about to be stopped out because it has rallied this morning.

He is also short RBOB at 303, and is also about to be stopped out this morning at another loss, but we will wait until these actually happen before we apply it to the total.
He made 1 cent on his heating oil trade yesterday, when it was stopped out at 325 for a profit of $420. He still thinks it was live at 326

He made up a stop on the long 1077 natural gas trade at 10800 for a 3 cent profit, which is $300. In this case, he should have just shut up and let it ride another day, because it is up this morning. His original stop at 10500 was probably pretty good.
So his current total is roughly -$15760, and he has two live short sales.
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 25 Apr 2008, 14:23:01

Update: Thanks to the Iranians, Phil was stopped out today on both of the above short sales:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell Jun Crude 11830 stop 11930

$1 loss, $1000
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')old June RBOB apprx 30300!! Stop 30500!

2 cent loss, $840
New total: -$17600
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Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Fri 25 Apr 2008, 19:44:34

Phyl is on to something, I thought at worst , he would emulate statistical noise, instead, he continues to make bets that go wrong most of the time. this is quite a feat mathematically speaking... like rolling tails most of the time when you call heads on a coin toss.
Someone better keep phyll out of las vegas.
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