Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Word Is Out: but is it "Surplus", "Correc

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

The Word Is Out: but is it "Surplus", "Correc

Unread postby Makword » Thu 03 Apr 2008, 14:57:20

The Alberta Department of Energy was so proud of the presentation I produced for them, they handed a copy to Vice President Cheney. It was no surprise to him to hear Canadians boast about the over 177 billions of barrels in reserve sitting in the sand in Northern Alberta. Of course, every other Dick, Tom and Harry was joining the “me too” line-up to get anyone’s attention in Washington. As Middle East oil-producers murmur about wanting to reduce oil exports to the US, anyone with a line on oil (hoping it might turn into a pipeline) is drooling in the lobbies of American Government. BUT --- take a drive down the highway between Edmonton and Calgary, the two big cities in Alberta, and you’ll see an even more interesting line-up of oil rigs and the stacks of pipe sitting inactive in the yards. While Canadians do the lobby thing south the border, various players in the oil industry around the world are doing whatever they can to sell the pipes, rigs, trailers, vehicles and every configuration of pumps and transformers imaginable. Just check the auction lists at Kruse Global (kruseglobal.com). This year, Kruse Global had to move the location to the Nisku Rec Center because, as the name implies, they need more room. What is this all saying? Is it a “surplus”, a “correction”, “peak oil” --- or did Criss Angel come up with a new trick? We know we can count on OPEC’s Qatar and the US Administration disagreeing on calling it a surplus. They did the same thing last year around the time of the first auction. They’ll call it anything other than “peak oil”.
User avatar
Makword
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 1
Joined: Tue 01 Apr 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Edmonton

Re: The Word Is Out: but is it "Surplus", "Co

Unread postby Cashmere » Thu 03 Apr 2008, 17:52:07

That post wandered like a philandering husband at Hooters convention.

What the hell was the point of it?

Oil surplus?

Call me when oil gets back to 60. That's my benchmark.
User avatar
Cashmere
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1882
Joined: Thu 27 Mar 2008, 03:00:00

Re: The Word Is Out: but is it "Surplus", "Co

Unread postby sicophiliac » Thu 03 Apr 2008, 21:50:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'M')ay I parse this?

Edmonton lobbies the US gov., other investors, etc with dreams of 177 bb 'unconventional.' Money and equipment pours into Calgary but really has no use because the sand doesn't really make money.

So who is Criss Angel and what is his new trick?

And why are you telling us this?

and can you document this?


The sands seem to making plenty of money for these guys.Suncor financials
User avatar
sicophiliac
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 435
Joined: Tue 28 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: san jose CA

Re: The Word Is Out: but is it "Surplus", "Co

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 04 Apr 2008, 04:12:21

Thanks Makword. This substantiates what I have been hearing from friends and family in Alberta that are in oilfield trucking and work in drilling. Equipment is leaving the Province headed for Australia and Asia. There is far less drilling and exploration than before two/three years. Costs are rising and the returns are not there.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')hreadbear wrote:
Thanks Mr.Bill--You certainly nailed that one. It's not your daddy's economy, for sure, and nothing is behaving as tradition would dictate.



I believe we are living through History at the moment. These are watershed events and not just another blip in the road. But nothing is adding up correctly.

Crude in $CAD

I spoke to by buddy on the phone this morning. He called me at about 1 a.m. from Alberta. He is in oilfield trucking. Over the past two winters activity in the oilpatch and especially in nat gas exploration and drilling has fallen off substantially. Despite high prices.

NAT GAS in $CAD

Number of trucks down from 100+ to 3. Number of hours worked down from 100+ to 27 hours per week. Cost of truck down from $C265 to $C205 per hour. Cost for swampers up from $C30 to $C47 per hour. Average age of swamper up over 40 versus under 30 a few years ago. Operators willing to run at variable cost to make their bank payments. They cannot recover their full costs.

USD/CAD exchange rate

So what's going on there? Why are hire rates falling as costs rise despite high prices for oil & gas? He and others tell me that the situation is not any different than in the 80s slowdown. Rig workers are spending it on toys as fast as they can make it. Essentially, unskilled or semi-skilled workers that have $C300-400K mortgages and another $C100K in personal debt to pay for the toys in the driveway. No savings against an eventual US lead slowdown. They are just setting themselves up for the eventual downfall.

It appears that in some cases the real estate bubble in some local markets has already been pricked.

http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/pdf/2008031 ... bility.pdf

Some really wierd dynamics taking place. At a recent Ritchie Bros. auction the majority of buyers for used heavy-duty equipment were from Australia and Asia. Not Noram buyers. So once those machines leave Alberta they are not likely coming back.

http://www.rbauction.com/index.jsp



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

threadbear wrote: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Mr.Bill, From what your friend is telling you, it seems that demand from the U.S for oil and gas may be falling off, but the price kept firm by a speculative rush into commodities by investors. Does this make sense, or am I missing something here?



That's exactly what I mean. The rush into commodities by institutional investors as the last asset class left standing is masking what is going on at ground level by high nominal prices. Those investment decisions are being propelled by fear of a devaluing US dollar and higher inflation in the pipeline from those fiscal and monetary stimuli.

Meanwhile for exploration and drilling it would appear that either the demand is not there and/or cost pressures have reduced the viability of some marginal projects. There are no doubt some long-term mega projects that must proceed regardless due to time-tables, but that may just not filter down to such mundane stuff as rig moving. But expansions and contractions usually take place at the margins, so it is worthwhile to talk to the truck drivers and drill pushes because they are on the sharp end of the stick.

And in any case the economics for oil drilling have been better than for natural gas for a couple of years now as per those charts I attached. Even in Canadian dollars we have seen a good appreciation in crude prices, while natural gas prices have been relatively flat since the spike in 2005. In the meantime, labor and equipment costs have risen making those projects less attractive. It could be a cost-benefit trade-off for the majors where they throw the bulk of their investment at the moment. And it could change next year if demand picks-up.

As per that gold chart in euros that I posted. The ABC correction of the fourth wave down has started to define itself. That would indicate a break of the previous low of 587 and a test of 575 euros. On the US dollar chart that would mean a break of $900 most likely to test $882/883, which is the 0.382R of the move from $642 to $1033. That was when the Fed started cutting rates last August up to the high in March. It would be an important technical level to hold for the bulls.



Source: http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic37994-0-asc-75.html

Thanks for your posts. Nice to hear from someone on the ground. Nevermind the peanut gallery. They only listen to self-reinforcing posters that think the same way as them anyway. They never let facts get in the way of a good argument! ; - )
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Re: The Word Is Out: but is it "Surplus", "Co

Unread postby Brock » Wed 09 Apr 2008, 03:45:00

Did this start when the government put the 20% royalties on Alberta oil?

Depressions are scientifically designed.
User avatar
Brock
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 32
Joined: Thu 22 Mar 2007, 03:00:00

Re: The Word Is Out: but is it "Surplus", "Co

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 09 Apr 2008, 03:59:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Brock', 'D')id this start when the government put the 20% royalties on Alberta oil?

Depressions are scientifically designed.


No. Not that I know? Costs are rising. The ROI is not there. Contrary to popular belief it costs money to look for oil & gas. Prices in Alberta have been out of control. The slowdown in nat gas has been two-three years in the making. The new royalty structure was only put into place last year. It might be affecting future investment decisions though.

Compared to the rest of the world Alberta is still a pretty comfortable place to look for oil. However, as far as I understand there was a lot of feather bedding going on to take advantage of the near tax holiday on capital spending by adding in all manner of other operational costs including head office allocations. That was just cheating the taxpayer with regards to oil & gas royalties.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Re: The Word Is Out: but is it "Surplus", "Co

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 09:23:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Brock', 'D')id this start when the government put the 20% royalties on Alberta oil?

Depressions are scientifically designed.


I think this article addresses your question. Obviously Alberta is worried about a deceleration in drilling activity in the province and an exodus of men and equipment.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Addressing the unintended consequences with these programs will help Alberta achieve the necessary levels of investment and production to generate the royalties anticipated by the New Royalty Framework," Energy Minister Mel Knight said.

Drillers of deep natural gas wells will get a break on royalties through credits, which will cost the province about $200-million a year for five years, while the credits to deep oil drillers will cost $37-million annually, also over five years.

Alberta believes the cost of the program will be recouped by additional drilling, and the province expects to get an extra $2-billion over 10 years.


Source: Alberta revamps royalties to spur drilling
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Re: The Word Is Out: but is it "Surplus", "Co

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 10:50:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')id this start when the government put the 20% royalties on Alberta oil?


yes....take a look at industry activity in BC, Saskatchewan and Montana all of which have increased dramatically in the past 2 years. I am an insider on this and can guaranty that many companies are moving their investment elsewhere....you can no longer turn a profit in deep gas in Alberta so why not move that investment into things like the Bakken? Many are now referring to it as Albertazuela.
Note that the "surplus" of equipment won't be there for long. There is a shortage of equipment worldwide. Rigs are scarce and steel is expensive. The wait for tubulars has decreased somewhat but there are not vast stores of 9 5/8" casing sitting around in a warehouse somewhere in Bogota or Legos.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7685
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00
Top


Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron