by MrBill » Fri 04 Apr 2008, 04:12:21
Thanks Makword. This substantiates what I have been hearing from friends and family in Alberta that are in oilfield trucking and work in drilling. Equipment is leaving the Province headed for Australia and Asia. There is far less drilling and exploration than before two/three years. Costs are rising and the returns are not there.
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$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')hreadbear wrote:
Thanks Mr.Bill--You certainly nailed that one. It's not your daddy's economy, for sure, and nothing is behaving as tradition would dictate.
I believe we are living through History at the moment. These are watershed events and not just another blip in the road. But nothing is adding up correctly.
Crude in $CAD
I spoke to by buddy on the phone this morning. He called me at about 1 a.m. from Alberta. He is in oilfield trucking. Over the past two winters activity in the oilpatch and especially in nat gas exploration and drilling has fallen off substantially. Despite high prices.
NAT GAS in $CAD
Number of trucks down from 100+ to 3. Number of hours worked down from 100+ to 27 hours per week. Cost of truck down from $C265 to $C205 per hour. Cost for swampers up from $C30 to $C47 per hour. Average age of swamper up over 40 versus under 30 a few years ago. Operators willing to run at variable cost to make their bank payments. They cannot recover their full costs.
USD/CAD exchange rate
So what's going on there? Why are hire rates falling as costs rise despite high prices for oil & gas? He and others tell me that the situation is not any different than in the 80s slowdown. Rig workers are spending it on toys as fast as they can make it. Essentially, unskilled or semi-skilled workers that have $C300-400K mortgages and another $C100K in personal debt to pay for the toys in the driveway. No savings against an eventual US lead slowdown. They are just setting themselves up for the eventual downfall.
It appears that in some cases the real estate bubble in some local markets has already been pricked.
http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/pdf/2008031 ... bility.pdf Some really wierd dynamics taking place. At a recent Ritchie Bros. auction the majority of buyers for used heavy-duty equipment were from Australia and Asia. Not Noram buyers. So once those machines leave Alberta they are not likely coming back.
http://www.rbauction.com/index.jsp --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
')Mr.Bill, From what your friend is telling you, it seems that demand from the U.S for oil and gas may be falling off, but the price kept firm by a speculative rush into commodities by investors. Does this make sense, or am I missing something here?