by Graeme » Sat 05 Apr 2008, 00:35:11
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'G')raeme,
Is it really that hard to believe that in 2030 we will still be using mostly oil to power our broken economies and war machines?
Alternatives as they exist now or even just down the road a bit cannot achieve what the politicians think or are wishing for. There is an entire populace just hoping and wishing that alternatives or technology will save us. We are far too late to mitigate the crisis at hand.
I'd say the real topic should be dance of the alternative fairies!
AirlinePilot, Yes we will still be using oil in 2030 but I don't believe that it will be MOSTLY oil (because oil demand will be less by then and alternatives will play a much bigger role, i.e. more than 1%). It is obvious from the article that the major oil companies believe that they can continue to extract oil from the ground and bring it to market, and at this point that they are not going to do anything about introducing alternative energy/fuels to the market at least to replace oil substantially in the short term.
The only options left are to change government policy toward oil companies (e.g. by removing incentives/splitting them up, or introducing universal carbon taxes on all oil/gas/coal producers & users) and alternative energy companies (introduce tax incentives like oil companies get now). Government should also introduce comprehensive energy efficiency policies. Such changes are beginning to happen now in the US with the numerous energy bills being introduced to Congress.
I don't accept your assertion that it is too late. The US economy will grow with introduction of major alternative energy projects.
I still favour an energy revolution scenario developed by
EREC.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Energy [R]evolution Scenario describes a development pathway which transforms the present situation into a sustainable energy supply.
• Exploitation of the large energy efficiency potential [figure 1]will reduce primary energy demand from the current 435,000 PJ/a (Peta Joules per year) to 422,000 PJ/a by 2050. Under the reference scenario there would be an increase to 810,000 PJ/a.This dramatic reduction is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a significant share of renewable energy sources, compensating for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reducing the consumption of fossil fuels.
• The increased use of combined heat and power generation (CHP) also improves the supply system’s energy conversion efficiency, increasingly using natural gas and biomass. In the long term, decreasing demand for heat and the large potential for producing heat directly from renewable energy sources limits the further expansion of CHP.
• The electricity sector will be the pioneer of renewable energy utilisation. By 2050, around 70% of electricity will be produced from renewable energy sources, including large hydro. An installed capacity of 7,100 GW will produce 21,400 Terawatt hours per year (TWh/a) of electricity in 2050.
• In the heat supply sector, the contribution of renewables will increase to 65% by 2050. Fossil fuels will be increasingly replaced by more efficient modern technologies, in particular biomass, solar collectors and geothermal.
• Before biofuels can play a substantial role in the transport sector, the existing large efficiency potentials have to be exploited. In this study, biomass is primarily committed to stationary applications; the use of biofuels for transport is limited by the availability of sustainably grown biomass.
• By 2050, half of primary energy demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.
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