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My days as a doomer might be over

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby Homesteader » Thu 03 Apr 2008, 22:43:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')As for a maximum capacity for wind, Denmark is a tiny country. It's possible to have no wind over most of Denmark on a given day. It's extremely unlikely that the entire European Union would be wind free for a day.

If you spread out the risk, wind becomes a much more favorable option. But this requires the construction of a true European Super Grid (another opinion of the panel).

So lets say that on a given day significant wind blows only in Spain and Britain.

To provide EU with wind on that given day would require Spain and Britain to operate wind generating infrastructure larger then entire EU wind infrastructure required to run entire EU supergrid an average day.
It would have to be larger because of inevitable long distance transmission loses.

That does not sound to be a workable idea, does it?

There are plenty of other problems with wind power:
http://www.aweo.org/ProblemWithWind.html#Eon


No worries! I just read a report stating that if 12% of Hollands tulip growing acreage was converted to growing this new genetically engineered algae that converts seawater to both diesel and biofouls, errr. . .biofuels Europes liquid fuels problem would be solved and the rise of sea levels would be stabilized as well.

Sorry, no link available

Sleepin' easy tonight!
Last edited by Homesteader on Fri 04 Apr 2008, 19:45:52, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Fri 04 Apr 2008, 01:58:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o worries! I just read a report stating that if...


I've heard a lot of "if's" in my short time on earth. Enough to know that only a fool counts their "if's" before they are hatched.
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby TonyPrep » Fri 04 Apr 2008, 05:22:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')onverting as little as 20 percent of potential wind energy to electricity could satisfy the entirety of the world's energy demands
Did the researchers look into the effects of removing 20% of the wind energy from the natural uses it is put to now?
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby BigTex » Fri 04 Apr 2008, 11:48:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')onverting as little as 20 percent of potential wind energy to electricity could satisfy the entirety of the world's energy demands
Did the researchers look into the effects of removing 20% of the wind energy from the natural uses it is put to now?


When you were a kid, did you ever take a little change out of mom's purse? She won't notice a little missing change, you may have thought to yourself. Mom and dad have so much money, how could they possibly miss a little change?

Harvesting wind is just taking a little change out of Mother Nature's purse. She won't notice...it's just a little change. And she has SO much money, right?

My kids have done this to me (as I did it to my parents) and it has caused me to get a parking ticket because I didn't have a little change to put in the meter because my change stash had been raided.
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby TonyPrep » Fri 04 Apr 2008, 18:03:20

Yeah, in our scramble to find another source of energy for our personal use, we will not consider what the downsides are, only what the upsides are. We have not learned anything from the past.
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby Homesteader » Fri 04 Apr 2008, 19:46:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')As for a maximum capacity for wind, Denmark is a tiny country. It's possible to have no wind over most of Denmark on a given day. It's extremely unlikely that the entire European Union would be wind free for a day.

If you spread out the risk, wind becomes a much more favorable option. But this requires the construction of a true European Super Grid (another opinion of the panel).

So lets say that on a given day significant wind blows only in Spain and Britain.

To provide EU with wind on that given day would require Spain and Britain to operate wind generating infrastructure larger then entire EU wind infrastructure required to run entire EU supergrid an average day.
It would have to be larger because of inevitable long distance transmission loses.

That does not sound to be a workable idea, does it?

There are plenty of other problems with wind power:
http://www.aweo.org/ProblemWithWind.html#Eon


No worries! I just read a report stating that if 12% of Hollands tulip growing acreage was converted to growing this new genetically engineered algae that converts seawater to both diesel and biofouls, errr. . .biofuels Europes liquid fuels problem would be solved and the rise of sea levels would be stabilized as well.

Sorry, no link available

Sleepin' easy tonight!


I was hoping someone would call me on that total B.S. I made up on the fly last night!

:lol:
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Fri 04 Apr 2008, 23:37:18

I had no idea that a post like this would garner 1200 views in a week. And the replies run the gamut.

I think that some of us actually don't care what happens in the future as long as society as we know goes up in flames. I rarely see any akcnowledgement of the possiblity of mitigating through alternative energies. I have no illusions that we are going to solve the problem, but every once in a while I get the feeling that some here feel like mitigation might leave the PTB in the place they have been in since the robber barrens.

How many of you will admit that you have this attitude and would care to discuss how prevalent it is among your friends? The attitude I mean is basically the anarchists manifesto.

I read a very interesting book the other day called the The Forager's Guide. As I read this I was able to make a pretty accurate assessment of how hard it would without competition to actually live off the land up here as a hunter gatherer, and brothers and sisters it would be alot of work, and that is just thinking about food. Please imagine if the grid [I mean that generally not just the electric grid] goes down. I could find myself living nearby to 700,000 people who suddenly have to scratch a living from the land within 100 miles of my home [estimated from the densityin the region.] If the trucks ever stop rolling I'm telling you all the truth I am going to plan on taking my family and heading to the remotest areas I can find on the planet.

It just hits me hard when I see hearts that 'appear' so hard as to actually think that hard crash is desireable. I could easily see every edible plant and animal population in the state gone within two years. What's left to eat then?

It is time to advocate for alternatives strongly in my opinion. Trust me the PTB will not be able to keep everything the way they want to even without a total collapse. People with malevolent attitudes, as I have said before, will probably find themselves on the short end of along rope, as groups everywhere try to maintain their sanity and safety in a world that is increasingly out of control. That is in a worse case scenario.

We still have a chance to find something less extreme, or at least to set the stage for renewal after the expected world dictatorship rises out of the last gasp of the owners to turn us all into soilent green :-)

Sorry guys I had to get little mixed humor in there.

I happen to know that I live next to one of the most profound wind power resources in the world that is only being utilized at about .1% of it's potential. It could easily support a wind to hydrogen economy for every citizen within 200 miles. What a great dream, unless you are an anti-establishment person in which case even that shining future for about a million people is to be resisted.

Guess what the major roadblocks are? The greenies don't want to see one more dead bat! It doesn't matter that no endagnered species has endagered habitat in the area, you just simply can't tolerate the death of one bat. And yet these same purists drink the tap water, and use their electric computers to write opposition papers to one of the most amazing possible futures for thie region.

I find that type of extremism to actually be more like a sociopathic expression. Eveywhere on the fringe are the radicals. The middle has to stand up and raise it's voice now.

But oh yeah I forgot. Because the oil companies and others in charge (who are expected to tell us of the impending oil depletion issues) refuse to broker the needed change there is no political support among the people of the state for the type of massive investment in wind that is actually needed here.

I am going to at least try to change that. Does anyone here have similar issues in there area?
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 04 Apr 2008, 23:50:30

If you don't mind me asking, in what area do you live?

You mentioned that you have a great wind power base so is it Texas or somewhere else?
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby BigTex » Fri 04 Apr 2008, 23:54:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', 'I') had no idea that a post like this would garner 1200 views in a week. And the replies run the gamut.

I think that some of us actually don't care what happens in the future as long as society as we know goes up in flames. I rarely see any akcnowledgement of the possiblity of mitigating through alternative energies. I have no illusions that we are going to solve the problem, but every once in a while I get the feeling that some here feel like mitigation might leave the PTB in the place they have been in since the robber barrens.

How many of you will admit that you have this attitude and would care to discuss how prevalent it is among your friends? The attitude I mean is basically the anarchists manifesto.

I read a very interesting book the other day called the The Forager's Guide. As I read this I was able to make a pretty accurate assessment of how hard it would without competition to actually live off the land up here as a hunter gatherer, and brothers and sisters it would be alot of work, and that is just thinking about food. Please imagine if the grid [I mean that generally not just the electric grid] goes down. I could find myself living nearby to 700,000 people who suddenly have to scratch a living from the land within 100 miles of my home [estimated from the densityin the region.] If the trucks ever stop rolling I'm telling you all the truth I am going to plan on taking my family and heading to the remotest areas I can find on the planet.

It just hits me hard when I see hearts that 'appear' so hard as to actually think that hard crash is desireable. I could easily see every edible plant and animal population in the state gone within two years. What's left to eat then?

It is time to advocate for alternatives strongly in my opinion. Trust me the PTB will not be able to keep everything the way they want to even without a total collapse. People with malevolent attitudes, as I have said before, will probably find themselves on the short end of along rope, as groups everywhere try to maintain their sanity and safety in a world that is increasingly out of control. That is in a worse case scenario.

We still have a chance to find something less extreme, or at least to set the stage for renewal after the expected world dictatorship rises out of the last gasp of the owners to turn us all into soilent green :-)

Sorry guys I had to get little mixed humor in there.

I happen to know that I live next to one of the most profound wind power resources in the world that is only being utilized at about .1% of it's potential. It could easily support a wind to hydrogen economy for every citizen within 200 miles. What a great dream, unless you are an anti-establishment person in which case even that shining future for about a million people is to be resisted.

Guess what the major roadblocks are? The greenies don't want to see one more dead bat! It doesn't matter that no endagnered species has endagered habitat in the area, you just simply can't tolerate the death of one bat. And yet these same purists drink the tap water, and use their electric computers to write opposition papers to one of the most amazing possible futures for thie region.

I find that type of extremism to actually be more like a sociopathic expression. Eveywhere on the fringe are the radicals. The middle has to stand up and raise it's voice now.

But oh yeah I forgot. Because the oil companies and others in charge (who are expected to tell us of the impending oil depletion issues) refuse to broker the needed change there is no political support among the people of the state for the type of massive investment in wind that is actually needed here.

I am going to at least try to change that. Does anyone here have similar issues in there area?


Gandalf, I think you are raising the issue of separating "the thing" from our perception of "the thing."

For example, UFOs may or may not be visitors from another planet, but to study the phenomenon, you really have to study the PSYCHOLOGY of UFOS along with the actual evidence of their existence.

It's the same with peak oil and mitigation strategies. To understand what's really going on, you have to study the reality of peak oil, overall resource depletion, overpopulation, etc., but you ALSO have to study the PSYCHOLOGY of these future states that we think about so much, because that is what is really more interesting (same with UFOs).

Do people WANT the world to collapse? Some do, others don't. Many will say they do, but really don't. The real source of the emotion is not a preoccupation with doom, it's the accumulation of fatigue at how STUPID political, religious and other leaders can be. This entire problem was created by people. It's not like an asteroid hit the earth or something. And even though we created the problem, no one even seems to want to acknowledge it exists, much less talk about what to do about it.

It is this strange current reality that I think makes a lot of people feel that the world couldn't be worse if we just crashed and started over with some other form of civilization, one that wasn't so damn greedy and neurotic.

My company started a "sustainability" program. I looked into some of what the program involves and a few of the great ideas were:

1. print fewer emails
2. use a ceramic coffe cup instead of styrofoam

These things won't hurt, but the scope of the problems we are facing in the next few decades are just so much larger than printing fewer emails and drinking out of a ceramic cup that it's laughable.

As I looked at the list of what the sustainability program is going to be encouraging, I wondered if the people who put the program together really have any clue about some of the larger forces at work. I may buy a copy of "Overshoot" for all of them. That ought to get their attention. :twisted:
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Sat 05 Apr 2008, 00:04:23

Thanks Tex,

that was a thought-filled post and encouraging from the sense that I see we both understand the scope of the issues. Though we may not agree on action I resonate with what you said there.

Printing fewer e-mails. Why print them? It's easier to desseminate information to those who have no business knowing it using the forward button.

I found Twilight at my local library. In the last few months it seems someone has been donating a whole bunch of doomer food to the library and they all get stacked right next to the other non-fiction books about watergate etc. So somebody in my community is making some effort. I know I have and I intend to make more.

August will be a hot month I think.
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby BigTex » Sat 05 Apr 2008, 02:17:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', 'T')hanks Tex,

that was a thought-filled post and encouraging from the sense that I see we both understand the scope of the issues. Though we may not agree on action I resonate with what you said there.

Printing fewer e-mails. Why print them? It's easier to desseminate information to those who have no business knowing it using the forward button.

I found Twilight at my local library. In the last few months it seems someone has been donating a whole bunch of doomer food to the library and they all get stacked right next to the other non-fiction books about watergate etc. So somebody in my community is making some effort. I know I have and I intend to make more.

August will be a hot month I think.


The way I see it, the human race in its industrialized form is on track to live to be about the human equivalent of 50 years old. In actual years, that might be 300 years or so. As a species, we smoke, we drive fast, we eat poorly, we expose ourselves to all manner of chemicals and pollution. We're doing all of the things that people who die at 50 do. If we say that the industrial era started in 1800, then that would put us on track for death of our civilization around 2100 if we continue down the path we are on.

One option we have to live a little longer would be to adopt all sorts of new technologies, reduce consumption, tweak the way we are currently living in countless small ways and just generally clean up our act within the current paradigm. This might allow us to live to the equivalent of a human life of, say, 90 years. In actual years, it might push the date of the death of industrial civilization from 2100 to 2300. Not bad, huh? That's almost doubling our time to live large, even if the last half won't be quite as large and wasteful as the first half. That's still not a bad run for a civilization--500 years. Not bad at all.

But there is another option. This is the approach to survival that the sharks, turtles, and countless other wild animals have taken. It's called sustainability. This approach will allow a population to live a certain way indefinitely. Human civilization could be like this--integrated into its habitat in a way that allows it to survive indefinitely.

Under this alternative scenario, the ultimate accomplishment of our remarkable intelligence would be to have enlightenment at the conscious level while remaining an integral part of our ecosystem, to be able to ponder things beyond the next meal, and to be able to do it for countless generations because the way we live would be in harmony with the world in which we live. The 10,000th generation of human civilization would find its habitat exactly as inhabitable as the 10th generation found it. But not only have we not gone this route, NO ONE EVEN SEEMS TO BE AWARE THAT THIS ROUTE EXISTS.

The length of one human life is finite. The duration of existence of one species or civilization of which one human being is a member need not be similarly finite. But in order to have durability as a species or civilization, you have to have sustainability. That is what we lack.

What is sad, too, is that not only are we as a species seemingly in no danger of discovering the alternative option, we are actually drifting farther in the direction of the irrational and mystical by placing much of our spiritual energy into religious traditions that encourage the most rapid consumption possible of our natural resources by commandments to reproduce as a species to the highest possible degree and to dominate our world rather than find a way to inhabit it as a guest rather than a conqueror.

When you get a clear picture in your mind of the scenarios under which human civilization could survive for thousands of years, it makes that little extra 200 year bump that techno-fixes and other mitigation strategies may provide seem trivial.

Obviously, it is unlikely that the different scenarios I am describing will impact my life in the same manner that it will impact the next several generations, but I just think to myself that there are countless generations that will probably never even exist because of the decisions we are making today. We are borrowing from both the ancient past (in the form of fossil fuels) and the distant future (in the form of generations that will not have the opportunity to experience this world because we are trashing it with too much gusto right now).

Sometimes you don't know exactly what the answer is, but you know what it's NOT. What we are doing right now--i.e., trying to wring that last little bit of easy oil from the earth and supplement it with techno-gadgetry--is NOT the answer. It's just a question of when (if ever) we make that realization as a species.

An early realization provides us with the opportunity to avoid the fate of every other creature that has ever outgrown its environment and drifted away from sustainability. A late realization will just be a very tragic period as human civilization competes savagely for those last few morsels before nature finally restores order and places us back on the shelf with a note that reads: "Next time make them intelligent AND sustainable--maybe do a land-dolphin kind of thing. Whatever you do, though, NO MORE OPPOSABLE THUMBS!"
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 05 Apr 2008, 04:49:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', 'I') happen to know that I live next to one of the most profound wind power resources in the world that is only being utilized at about .1% of it's potential. It could easily support a wind to hydrogen economy for every citizen within 200 miles. What a great dream, unless you are an anti-establishment person in which case even that shining future for about a million people is to be resisted.
I think our problems are a bit bigger than just the energy problem. Whilst I have no desire for civilization to collapse, that may turn out to be the only way for reality to creep in.

Do you think anyone is even considering any detrimental effects of harnessing a whole lot of wind power? Do you think the mix of species that has arisen, and how the environment is carved out in an area dominated by wind might be affected by diverting part of the wind to other uses? I don't know, but I think it might. Those who look for just energy solutions tend not to consider the environmental, or other impacts.

I have to admit that if someone could think of a way to mitigate the declines we might start to see very soon, in all kind sort resources, could scale those solutions and could scale them without damaging our habitat, for another century or so, I might encourage that solution, though it would just delay the need to deal with our problems permanently. But I just can't see it happening.
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 05 Apr 2008, 10:45:46

Personally, I think it is time for us to face our problems. I'm not hoping for a new energy source or "solution" to the energy problem. To find such a thing now would just make our problems worse.
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby Homesteader » Sat 05 Apr 2008, 11:14:08

What is more important? Our continued existence as we know it and identify with to the last gasp(literally), or Earth in some recognizable form? Both isn't possible, so choose.

Answering that question could clarify some of the responses on many threads.

Suppose you had a goose that continuously laid a wide variety of very valuable eggs including lead eggs. Over time you realized the goose was laying more lead eggs than the other kinds of eggs which was starting to exhaust the goose to the point that all egg production was starting to decline rapidly. You had two options. . . .let her keep laying whatever eggs she could until she was so exhausted that she could no longer lay any eggs, or give her a pill so she essentially stopped laying lead eggs which would allow her to gradually regain her health as well as continue to lay all the other kinds of eggs.

Which is more important to you? The goose or the lead eggs?

To some extent we have had our cake and eaten it too for so long that we believe with all our heart and soul it is a birthright.

We cant distinguish between ourselves and our consumer lifestyles.
Somehow the death of one will be the death of the other.
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 06 Apr 2008, 04:25:46

dp
Last edited by yesplease on Wed 09 Apr 2008, 21:18:14, edited 1 time in total.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 06 Apr 2008, 04:30:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'B')ase on European experience it seems that no more then 20-25% of your electricity may rely on wind.
W/o demand side management, sure. But that will likely not always be the case. And, while there are some things such as watching the b00b tub3 that can't be deferred, there are a lot like washing the dishes/clothes that can.
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 06 Apr 2008, 04:40:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'Y')ou could snap your fingers and make every one of those a PHEV, there are still so many obstacles in the way, the need for qualified mechanics, space for disposal of dud batteries, the increased strain on the grid, etc.
Well, we've come this far w/o qualified mechanics, so I don't see any reason why that would change. But seriously, battery disposal, is so horrendous, I'll offer to take on disposal of those horrible carcasses. And sell 'em to Toyota for a nice profit. The increased strain on the grid only happens if we decide to, instead of charging out EVs when we're asleep, all decide to do it over the space of a couple hours at say... 3-5PM, since we enjoy wasting time and infrastructure. It's as or less likely as everyone in some area going to get gas over the same minute during the day.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'A')nd that's purely academic since the oil companies will fight the changeover from liquid fuels to the end, even though to do so is patently insane.
Not quite based on what they've done. They'll maximize profitability while they can such that they'll get a big jump on whatever replaces them and have a nice juicy piece of that pie. Most people don't know or care enough about what they're doing, and when they do, those companies will change.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'B')ase on European experience it seems that no more then 20-25% of your electricity may rely on wind.
W/o demand side management, sure. But that will likely not always be the case. And, while there are some things such as watching the b00b tub3 that can't be deferred, there are a lot like washing the dishes/clothes that can. Toss in significant solar thermal that can be mediated to an extent, along with a nuclear baseload and some BG or even NG for peaking, and that's a 60-75+% renewable grid at roughly the same cost (ie including externalities) that we're paying now.
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 06 Apr 2008, 05:27:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'B')ase on European experience it seems that no more then 20-25% of your electricity may rely on wind.
W/o demand side management, sure. But that will likely not always be the case. And, while there are some things such as watching the b00b tub3 that can't be deferred, there are a lot like washing the dishes/clothes that can. Toss in significant solar thermal that can be mediated to an extent, along with a nuclear baseload and some BG or even NG for peaking, and that's a 60-75+% renewable grid at roughly the same cost (ie including externalities) that we're paying now.

How would you make consumers aware, when additional wind power is available?
It may be literally at any time.
They could sleep this time, they could work, they could be away.

RE. solar thermal:
Applicable only in hot countries. California or Spain could benefit of it, but UK or Germany - I doubt very much.
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sun 06 Apr 2008, 05:37:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')he increased strain on the grid only happens if we decide to, instead of charging out EVs when we're asleep, all decide to do it over the space of a couple hours at say... 3-5PM, since we enjoy wasting time and infrastructure. It's as or less likely as everyone in some area going to get gas over the same minute during the day.
We don't need to do it all at the same time for there to be a problem. Even if it is feasible for everyone to do it at night (different people work and play in different ways and drive different amounts) that would still put a strain on the grid. Having the grid run at constant peak load is not something it was designed to do, nor is it capable of doing it.

I once read a well argued calculation, I think it was on The Oil Drum, that the capacity of the grid would need to increase by at least a third, just to cope with everyone charging their cars at night. One of the factors was maintenance down time.

However, every car owner/driver won't, or won't be able to, charge only at night. So a larger increase in capacity would be needed.
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Re: My days as a doomer might be over

Unread postby JRP3 » Sun 06 Apr 2008, 09:14:14

On the other hand I've read well argued calculations that the grid can handle all PHEV needs quite easily as is and that it's actually better for the grid to have a more even load than powering down at night as we do now. The majority of the population will be able to charge at night, and can be encouraged to do so by a cheaper night rate.

As to the problems with wind power, the major problem is the lack of energy storage. This may be changing with things such as flow batteries and Altairnano NanoSafe batteries. AES power is testing a huge pack of NanoSafe batteries as backup power. If they pan out they could easily be used with wind power as well.
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