Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

phil flynn ???

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 11 Mar 2008, 19:05:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell April crude at 11020 stop 11120.
Sell April RBOB at 27400 - stop 27600.
Sell April heating oil at 30200 - stop 30500.
Buy April natural gas at 960 - stop 950

Phil has now flipped back to short, figuring to call the top on crude oil and the products.
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby DantesPeak » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 09:49:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ar 7: It might not be a bad idea to short gasoline and go long an equal amount of heating oil the next few weeks. That's because of the gasoil shortage in Europe, sucking distillate supplies from the US to there. In addition, this would be before summer blend gasoline is in full use.

My suggestion worked out very well, with heating oil gaining 14 cents/gallon vs. gasoline yesterday. Too bad I don't trade energy futures. :(
However I am considering buying the new ETF for gasoline (UGA) at some point this spring, and as a disclosure, I do trade the oil ETF (USO).
User avatar
DantesPeak
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6277
Joined: Sat 23 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Jersey

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 21:09:41

my fundamentalist idol, Dantes, second only to the great pupp, now moving into
the big ocean with the big sharks Pickens and Flynn, what is the world
comming to ??
User avatar
oilluber
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 493
Joined: Sun 03 Jul 2005, 03:00:00

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 17 Mar 2008, 15:44:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')topped on short April crude from apprx 11020 at apprx 11120. Buy May crude at 10600 - stop 10500.
We're short April RBOB from apprx 27400 - stop 27500.
Buy April heating oil at 29900 - stop 29400.
Buy April natural gas at 967 - stop 957.

Phil's crude oil long trade was stopped out at a 100 point loss ($1000), then he bought crude again at 10600 only to have it take a dump and stop him back out again at 10500. If he was fortunate enough to have his trade filled at that point, it only cost him an additional $1000.

He will do well with his RBOB trade though. He is short at 274 and it is now down around 2.48, a 30 cent drop. At the moment, he is ahead by a whopping $12,600 on that trade, if he can manage to take some money off the table before it rebounds.
So -$7851 minus another $2000 equals $-9851. We will see how much money he puts in his pocket on his RBOB trade before we tally up the total.
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Mon 17 Mar 2008, 18:25:26

phylll got a lucky break today, with the Bear sterns sell off in oil futures, he may have made some $$.
Only a God-Trader can anticipate US finanical institutions going bankrupt.
User avatar
oilluber
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 493
Joined: Sun 03 Jul 2005, 03:00:00

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 20 Mar 2008, 09:31:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell May crude at 10900 - stop 11100.
Stopped on short April RBOB from apprx 27400 at apprx 26400!!! Sell May RBOB at 27600 - stop 28000.
We're long April heating oil from apprx 29900- raise stop to 30400!!! If not stopped, roll to the May contract market on close.
Buy April natural gas at 890 - stop 880.

We have not checked on Phil for a day or two.
His RBOB trade was stopped out, he only made $4200 on it, he is now long on April HO. He is anticipating a double top on the crude oil, and will short it if it gets up to 109 again. Also note that he has rolled out into May already, to avoid the frivolity that always happens at the end of the month when the contracts expire.

So, Phil is down only $5651 thus far since we have been tracking him.
Update: this morning his HO trade was stopped out for a profit of $2100, meaning that he is only down $3551
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Thu 27 Mar 2008, 18:03:21

down some more on crude: Sell May crude at 10420 - stop 10700.
Sell May RBOB at 26900 - stop 27200.
We're short May heating oil from apprx 28700 - stop 30000.
Sell May natural gas at 980 - stop 990.
Have a GREAT day!
User avatar
oilluber
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 493
Joined: Sun 03 Jul 2005, 03:00:00

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 28 Mar 2008, 10:11:05

Bad news for Phil.
As oiluber points out, phil's short crude oil trade went the wrong way and was probably stopped out at 107. Loss: 2.80 or $2800
The HO trade above where he went short on 3-25 was stopped out yesterday at 300
Some days, you just do not feel like getting up in the morning. This is a loss of 13 cents or $5460

So for the last couple of months since we have been tracking him, his running total is $-12,002. If he keeps this up, it is going to be a bad christmas around the Flynn house. I suppose we should send a link to this thread to Fox News so that they are aware of this amazing record.

To make matters worse, if you are one of his customers, he is charging you a commission for this pleasure, over and above that. We should try to figure out what his commission rate is, so we can calculate how much one of his customers has lost.
Most of the lossses where when he got cocky and tried to short the market and it flipped on him. He is still deep in his heart bearish on the market.
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby DantesPeak » Fri 28 Mar 2008, 10:30:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'B')ad news for Phil. He is still deep in his heart bearish on the market.

It still apears many energy 'analysts' have a hard accepting that the world's oil markets have permanently changed. One mutant effect of that is a worldwide shortage of diesel, which put simply, only can be relieved by refining more oil.

Tom Whipple, a well known PO protagonist, now says:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')esides the increasing noise and air pollution, the downside is that many of these are diesel powered, and there is a developing global shortage of diesel fuel. Generation of electric power with small internal combustion engines is expensive and highly inefficient. Until the fuel becomes too expensive or is no longer available, small generators are going to become increasing prevalent and will add significant new pressures on the world’s supply of liquid fuels.

The Peak Oil Crisis: Load Shedding by Tom Whipple
Thurs, 27 Mar 2008: Fall Church News Press
User avatar
DantesPeak
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6277
Joined: Sat 23 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Jersey
Top

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Sat 29 Mar 2008, 16:52:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell May crude at 10850 - stop 10950.
Stopped on short May RBOB from apprx 26900 at apprx 27200.
We're short May heating oil from apprx 28700 - stop 30000.
Buy May natural gas at 910 - stop 890.

Poor Phil. His RBOB trade was evidently filled the other day, and promptly stopped out at a 3 cent loss, so another $1260 goes to the longs.
We're now at -$13,262. Let's hope he does not have a HELOC or is upside down on a mortgage or something.

DP is right, though. Phil, and a lot of other people, are still under the obviously mistaken impression that the market is still under some sort of normal supply regime. When they finally wake up to the fact that it is not, there is likely to be a stampede to the long side.
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Fri 04 Apr 2008, 07:04:30

hows fllynn doing after his latest loss on the crude oil trade ??
was he short again, to take another bath ??
User avatar
oilluber
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 493
Joined: Sun 03 Jul 2005, 03:00:00

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 04 Apr 2008, 11:30:28

I don't think he ever got his trade filled. He set his order too high. He is trying to wait for the market to get to a top, way over what it is currently trading at, then shorting it. He is still a bear at this point.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell May crude at 10770 - stop 10850
Sell May RBOB at 27850 - stop 28000.
Sell May heating oil at 31000 - stop 31500.
We're long May natural gas from apprx 940 - stop 933.

I lost track of him for a day or two, but it looks as though he is now long on Natural Gas.
He might make a little money on it. It's at 9.464 this morning, so he has a chance. We might have to take up a collection for him at some point if he does not start having a few winners.
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 04 Apr 2008, 15:35:49

Update: More bad news for Phil. In the last four hours since I posted the above, May NG turned around and stopped him out at 9.33
There was another $700 loss. New total, -$13,962
Phil had some nerve to go long on NG with the daffodills coming up out of the ground, but surely he knew what he was doing. Heating Oil is still quite strong today, maybe he thought there would be some sympathetic movement.
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Fri 04 Apr 2008, 19:00:39

he will nail the top one of these days, after much cash expenditure.
he does have alot of cash to burn I presume.
User avatar
oilluber
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 493
Joined: Sun 03 Jul 2005, 03:00:00

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 11:42:33

More bad news for Phil. Honestly, at this point he cannot catch a break.
His crude oil short sale got filled at 10770, and summarily stopped out at 10850, for a loss of 80 cents or $800.
Plus his RBOB short trade has been filled, and the market is going the wrong way on him. He is not stopped out yet but he has a good chance of losing 1.5 cents when it hits 280.

To make matters even worse, Natural gas went way way up today, over 30 cents, and if he had not been stopped out on Friday he would have made some money.
So he is at -$14762 at the moment, but we will be patient, because his strategy might work on the Unleaded, if it tops out miraculously.
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 13:31:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')We're seeing the funds jump in and buy commodities,'' said Phil Flynn, a senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "Commodities had by far the best returns during the last quarter. It would be risky to bet that either the stock market or dollar has hit a bottom yet.''

Better listen to him. He is a senior trader, whatever that is. Bloomberg
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 15:09:50

Image
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're short May crude from apprx 10770 - stop 10850.
Sell May RBOB at 27850 - stop 28000.
Sell May heating oil at 31000 - stop 31500.
We're long May natural gas from apprx 940 - stop 933.

Update: Phil this morning claims still to be long on Natural Gas, but we clearly see that if he were really trading, which there is plenty of reason to believe he is not, he would have been stopped out last Friday when the market got down to 929.

Surely Phil would not "lie" about being stopped out on this trade. Surely he would not take credit for being right on the market today when it gained 47 cents without him, when he was clearly stopped out and missed it.
Luckily we are keeping track of what must have been some sort of clerical oversight.
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby oilluber » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 17:47:55

i would believe, becaUSE of the high risk involved with short term trading (that Flynn claims to be an expert in,) even he, would have to put stop losses on his trades, so He probably did get stopped out.

The important point here is that, even if he went long the futures, he is dancing with the devil trying to outsmart the daily volatility. The lure of making a kill , the ego ingratiating thrill of being able to predict the future is perhaps taking a toll on his own perception of what is possible and what is not possible in the real world.

But then, if he considers himself a God, surely , he can predict the future and the minute volatility that goes along with the commodity market.
User avatar
oilluber
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 493
Joined: Sun 03 Jul 2005, 03:00:00

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Wed 09 Apr 2008, 11:08:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell May crude at 11180 - stop 11250.
We're short May RBOB from apprx 27850 - lower stop to 27700!
We're short May heating oil from apprx 31000 - stop 31500.
We're long May natural gas from apprx 940 - raise stop 955!

Update: Phil had three live trades yesterday, and he made some money on his RBOB trade by taking some off the table at 277.
1.5 cents, $630, new total -$13332
Phil will try to claim he is a market genius because natural gas is up another 30 cents this morning, up to almost $10, which makes it about a 60-cent increase in the last three days. Something is up on this.
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: phil flynn ???

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 08:27:52

Update: Phi's heating oil trade, above, was stopped out at 315 for a loss of 5 cents, or $2100. His new total is -$15400
The natural gas trade that did not happen is going crazy. That stuff is up another 20 cents this morning, and is in the 10.18 range. If he had been long at 940, at 10.18 the profit would be $7800 so he would have made up for a lot of his previous unsuccessful short selling.
His crude oil trade, above, is also in danger of being stopped out over 112. We will see if his stragegy of shorting the resistance levels will pay off. It has been a catastrophe so far.
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to North America Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests