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Re: Another Oil price Record

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Another Record

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 13:19:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'd') wrote:

"Oil is not gold, it needs to be sold to someone who can buy it to use for either driving or making something plasticy and sellable."

Good point, but on the other hand once gold is mined it is pretty much around forever so the total amount is always increasing, while oil is quickly burned up or changed into something else, so is gone for ever shortly after being mined.


Gold is recyclable to a large extent in most uses, but there is a finite supply of gold. Some day (not sure when that will be) it is possible all of the recoverable gold will have been mined, then the world will have to get along with whatever exists. If that means growth that depends on certain uses is restricted there will be nothing that can be done except look for substitutes while the price rises. At the rates of increase we have been seeing $2000 gold is not beyond possibility in 15 years or so if the global economy can find a way to keep growing as they have suggested. However, I think fossil fuels will have something to say about that.
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby whereagles » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 18:47:57

You can probably synthetize gold with some nuclear reaction. Rate of flow will be a few grams a day, though :p
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 19:32:37

To prevent social anarchy, the oil producing nations must keep oil prices high enough to provide them with the funds necessary to avoid it. As their populations grow, their production falls, their per unit cost increases, and they get more “Westernized” that price will increase. It can easily be assumed that like a parasite, the oil producing nations will feed until the host dies. The only real question is at what price will the host perish?

Answer that question, and you will have established what will be, the maximum oil price.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 21:43:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')o prevent social anarchy, the oil producing nations must keep oil prices high enough to provide them with the funds necessary to avoid it. As their populations grow, their production falls, their per unit cost increases, and they get more “Westernized” that price will increase. It can easily be assumed that like a parasite, the oil producing nations will feed until the host dies. The only real question is at what price will the host perish?

Answer that question, and you will have established what will be, the maximum oil price.


Just for the sake of trying it once, I'll venture that oil will never go over $500 per barrel, the wick will burn itself out before that. There will still be (or there will still be potential for) more localized oil economies near sources of supply but the global oil economy will perish. Nations not blessed with a ready supply will experience severe difficulties if oil get's anywhere near $150 per barrel. $200 per barrel means Posse Comitatus suddenly aquires two million new members in the Northern Plains. $250 means those new detention camps let FEMA find out how productive forced labor can be as an economic stimulus package. The super spike that ends it all is a one week affair that sees all major producers deciding not to sell any oil at all and so preserve for themselves the chance to keep their own lights on for another 50 to 100 years. America becomes a place where the Morlocks (Dick Cheney being their king) come out of their holes at night to feast on young flesh. The stage is set for a battle in the Middle East between every major army in the world.

You know you hope it nevers comes to this, but realistically that is a possible if unlikely scenario.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Toploader » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 22:07:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whereagles', 'Y')ou can probably synthetize gold with some nuclear reaction. Rate of flow will be a few grams a day, though :p


Where’s an alchemist when you need one eh?
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Revi » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 00:05:04

$500 a barrel means $16.25 per gallon gasoline. What's so bad about that? That means that you will transported about a mile with about 500 pounds of stuff for less than a buck. Sounds like a bargain even at that price.

The price doesn't matter. We'll pay it.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Pholostan » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 02:14:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '$')500 a barrel means $16.25 per gallon gasoline.


Let me think, a gallon of gas here in Sweden is almost $8. I could se it doubling and people would still be driving, no problem. Sure, there would be lots of complaining and poor people out in the country would drive less and howl at the politicans all the time.

I seriously doubt that society would collapse. Biofuels would sure get even more investment money though.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby chris-h » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 11:59:49

103.46 new record
88822-88822=0
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby kilik » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 13:11:43

Here in Norway we are alreay paying around $9 USD for a gallon, but I don't think we've seen any decrease in car use yet.

A recent goverment report said that doubling the gas price in Norway would reduce car use with 19%. Three times the price will give a 31% reduction.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby jdumars » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 13:31:25

This kinda says it all....

Image
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 15:30:25

Well folks, we're in historic territory now for sure. Welcome to Era of Decline.

Now that the "inflation-adjusted high" price for oil has finally been reached, the new spin has already begun:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080303/oil_prices.html

Now, the price is going to be spun as being high because the dollar is low.

Which begs the question, can someone explain the relation to price of oil/gas today with the "inflation-adjusted" and "dollar down" prices? I think it's a bunch of hogwash. As far as I am concerned, the price is the price and it's the effect it has on my wallet that I care about, not some 20 year old inflation adjusted amount.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby chris-h » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 15:44:30

103.82 now
88822-88822=0
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Revi » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 22:51:01

I thought that this thread was about oil prices and discussion of that. Is this the relative merits of the US vs. Canada thread? I had to go back to the top of the page to reassure myself that it was the Another Record thread.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby gnm » Tue 04 Mar 2008, 13:50:48

Strange. Opec announces possible cutbacks in production, and both oil and RBOB are way down. Gold dropping too. Weird given the current dollar/euro situation.

oil $99 and change now...

-G
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Tue 04 Mar 2008, 14:28:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'S')trange. Opec announces possible cutbacks in production, and both oil and RBOB are way down. Gold dropping too. Weird given the current dollar/euro situation.

oil $99 and change now...

-G


I came to make this exact same post! WTF? Oil and gold are tanking big.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby gnm » Tue 04 Mar 2008, 14:50:42

Is this driven by the Saleri (sp?) article - do traders really buy the 16 Trillion in reserves BS he's spewing?

-G
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Tue 04 Mar 2008, 15:46:43

Good article in the Oklahoman (no mean feat) this morning about how profits from the high price of oil are merely going back into the ground, as production costs soar for domestic crude.

Emphasis mine below.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hip Minty, a spokesman for Devon Energy Corp., said his company maintains a similar perspective in that regard.

"A strong oil commodity market generates revenue and allows us to fund exploration and development programs we need to maintain adequate supplies for consumers,” he said. But all three analysts also agreed Friday that the news isn't all sweet.

Hamm attributes the rise of light-sweet crude's price to added expenses to find and produce it.

Reserves of oil that were easy and cheap to get to and to produce in the United States have been gone for decades, and it costs more money than ever to get to oil reserves that are more difficult to find, she said Friday.

"Everybody's profits are being squeezed,” she said. "The per-barrel production and exploration costs are going up dramatically.

"So, the profits we are seeing on these oil prices are short-lived because their costs to produce are going up so much.

"Wells that cost a million dollars to drill three years ago cost $3 million now.”


And the economy's problems aren't helping because the state's oil producers are competing in a global economy using a weaker U.S. dollar for rig time and materials, she pointed out.
...
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 04 Mar 2008, 16:11:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hip Minty, a spokesman for Devon Energy Corp., said...


Do you think Chip Minty is his stage name?
:)
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Tue 04 Mar 2008, 16:21:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hip Minty, a spokesman for Devon Energy Corp., said...


Do you think Chip Minty is his stage name?


:lol:

He speaks troof, though.
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