by Gandalf_the_White » Sun 02 Mar 2008, 21:43:23
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')o prevent social anarchy, the oil producing nations must keep oil prices high enough to provide them with the funds necessary to avoid it. As their populations grow, their production falls, their per unit cost increases, and they get more “Westernized” that price will increase. It can easily be assumed that like a parasite, the oil producing nations will feed until the host dies. The only real question is at what price will the host perish?
Answer that question, and you will have established what will be, the maximum oil price.
Just for the sake of trying it once, I'll venture that oil will never go over $500 per barrel, the wick will burn itself out before that. There will still be (or there will still be potential for) more localized oil economies near sources of supply but the global oil economy will perish. Nations not blessed with a ready supply will experience severe difficulties if oil get's anywhere near $150 per barrel. $200 per barrel means Posse Comitatus suddenly aquires two million new members in the Northern Plains. $250 means those new detention camps let FEMA find out how productive forced labor can be as an economic stimulus package. The super spike that ends it all is a one week affair that sees all major producers deciding not to sell any oil at all and so preserve for themselves the chance to keep their own lights on for another 50 to 100 years. America becomes a place where the Morlocks (Dick Cheney being their king) come out of their holes at night to feast on young flesh. The stage is set for a battle in the Middle East between every major army in the world.
You know you hope it nevers comes to this, but realistically that is a possible if unlikely scenario.
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.