[billg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'b')illg,
What do you eat? How is it paid for? Shouldn't you, by the ethic you seem to be espousing here, donate that food or income to some less fortunate soul and quietly starve? If not, what are your limits of providing for ones self?

[Revi]

Whether we like it or not, somebody is going to speculate on the price of wheat.

The price is going up. There isn't enough, and all the wheat in the world is in the market now.

There aren't any small villages that just grow the food they need to survive.

We're all in the system now.

The reason that the price of ag commodities is going up is that it takes a lot of water and energy to make them. The price of both of those things is going up.

The price has to reflect the cost of production.

We make maple syrup, and I can't sell it for last year's price, unless we want to lose money.

Agricultural commoditity prices are going up.

We can only hope that they go up enough so that the farmers keep producing.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoolYap', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'B')ut, anyway -your investing in Tobacco doesn't affect whether anyone smokes or not.

[KingDavid]

We all know that industrial agriculture is unsustainable so why are we pouring more and more resources into it? Maybe that is where the profit is right now but it's not where you will find long-term sustainability. Stop kidding yourself mattduke...those investing in ag commodities care nothing about the planet and the little man who needs to feed himself. It's all about making a buck.
[/quote]
i agree billg
Nonetheless a lot of people here are doing this and call it earning . A bunch of vultures if you ask me! But i have no family to feed so.... i understand.
I think that's why i'm becoming more and more gloomy recently even the smart and more aware people don't give a f***.

[KingDavid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoolYap', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('billg', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoolYap', 'I')'m invested in ag commodities, to try to earn enough to be able to retire some day. Not to mention, try to stay ahead of inflation. If ag commodities are rising in price, I'll invest in them. That's not greed, is it?

--Steve

[MrBill]

KingDavid wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the region where i live (limburg: beautiful hills, a lot of agriculture esp. fruit) we have 150% more chance to catch lung cancer than the rest of belgium thx to the great amounts of pesticides they use. I'm lucky you have principles mister. But in the end the smokers are to blame, bad, bad smokers....

ps: how do i quote just a part of sombodies post, thx

[KingDavid]

I read this in a couple of belgian newspapers (not tabloids).
I also heard on the radio that we have a 50% chance to catch lung cancer at the age of 65. Now that's old, but these odds will still be high at lower ages.
They might misinform me, but i'm not a liar mrbill. Everybody reads stuff and takes conclusions depending on what they believe. I try to keep an open mind.

In my country 1 of 6 couples need fertility treatment. 40 Years (i'm not sure of this number) ago it was 1 of 14 couples. They blame it like always on the smoking mob. Don't get me wrong smoking is very dangerous but it's an easy ennemy and not the only culprit. But i'm getting of thread here.

by the way, thx for the quoting info,bye

[MrBill]

Thanks KingDavid. We have so many chemicals inside of us that no one can say with any certainty how they all react with one another. So it may be true that this is causing elevated levels of cancer and/or fertility problems? Certainly, smoking is a major cause of heart disease and lung cancer. Sorry if my posts seemed unfair criticism. Cheers.

[Imho4ep]

At the risk of getting back on topic, can we get some opinions on wether these etn's are set to "explode"?

Are they a good hedge against inflation? Will they go in the opposite direction of the dollar/equities?

[copious.abundance]

No, investors/speculators have no effect on the prices of commodities. None. It just can't be true.

--> Bloomberg <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
By Zhang Shidong

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should avoid the dollar while commodities are the ``best investment'' for this year, said Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.

Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, made the comments in a speech in Shanghai today.

The dollar has slipped 6.7 percent against the euro and 5.2 percent versus the yen this year as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to stave off a U.S. economic recession. Oil prices in New York have doubled in the past 12 months, while gold futures jumped 41 percent.

Avoid the dollar ``at all costs,'' Rogers said. ``The best investments in 2008 are commodities and natural resources. Agricultural prices have much higher to go over the next decade. We have a shortage of everything including seeds.''

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'N')o, investors/speculators have no effect on the prices of commodities. None. It just can't be true.

--> Bloomberg <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says
By Zhang Shidong

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should avoid the dollar while commodities are the ``best investment'' for this year, said Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.

Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, made the comments in a speech in Shanghai today.

The dollar has slipped 6.7 percent against the euro and 5.2 percent versus the yen this year as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to stave off a U.S. economic recession. Oil prices in New York have doubled in the past 12 months, while gold futures jumped 41 percent.

Avoid the dollar ``at all costs,'' Rogers said. ``The best investments in 2008 are commodities and natural resources. Agricultural prices have much higher to go over the next decade. We have a shortage of everything including seeds.''

[copious.abundance]

But w_c, golly gee, I thought speculators and investors weren't supposed to have an effect on the commodities markets. You mean to tell me that if lots of people take Mr. Roger's advice and buy into commodities, that will have no effect on the price?

I guess we've got shortages of gold, too, since Mr. Rogers is advising to buy it . . . in spite of the fact that world gold consumption is down 16% in the first quarter of this year.

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')ut w_c, golly gee, I thought speculators and investors weren't supposed to have an effect on the commodities markets. You mean to tell me that if lots of people take Mr. Roger's advice and buy into commodities, that will have no effect on the price?

I guess we've got shortages of gold, too, since Mr. Rogers is advising to buy it . . . in spite of the fact that world gold consumption is down 16% in the first quarter of this year.

[copious.abundance]

In fact, let's look at demand for gold over the past several years. Here's an earlier chart from the same source showing world demand for gold in 2004 and 2005:

--> CHART <--

Given that link and the other link I gave above, here is world tonnage demand for gold over the past 4 years:

2004: 3,495.5
2005: 3,726.7
2006: 3,405
2007: 3,516.4
2008: Down 16% in the first quarter

Over the past 4 years, demand for gold has gone basically nowhere. And yet, over that same time period, the price has gone through the roof:



So you must be right: Supply and demand fundamentals are the only thing that determine the price.

[Micki]

His agri-food predictions are very worrying.
Saw an interview with him maybe 2 months ago and he told the host, and I paraphrase "If I told you how unbelivably bullish I am on edible commodities, you would ask me to leave becasue it would sound mad".

Another way of translating that is; most people won't be eating nearly as much as they do today.

[wisconsin_cur]

should we get back on topic with the focus of the article that you posted? food and natural resources?

[copious.abundance]

What's wrong w_c, do you not want to admit that the price of something can skyrocket even when there's no shortage of it? I guess there must have been a big shortage of gold around 1980. Peak Gold! And it looks like we're hitting Peak Gold again!

[Micki]

Doesn't matter what the reason is.
If food prices start doubling or trippling, most people will be eating less even if the shop shelves are full.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')hat's wrong w_c, do you not want to admit that the price of something can skyrocket even when there's no shortage of it? I guess there must have been a big shortage of gold around 1980. Peak Gold! And it looks like we're hitting Peak Gold again!

[Micki]

Barclays are among the latest to point the finger at "the fed".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')S central bank accused of unleashing an inflation shock that will rock financial markets, reports Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Barclays Capital has advised clients to batten down the hatches for a worldwide financial storm, warning that the US Federal Reserve has allowed the inflation genie out of the bottle and let its credibility fall "below zero".

"We're in a nasty environment," said Tim Bond, the bank's chief equity strategist. "There is an inflation shock underway. This is going to be very negative for financial assets. We are going into tortoise mood and are retreating into our shell. Investors will do well if they can preserve their wealth."

Barclays Capital said in its closely-watched Global Outlook that US headline inflation would hit 5.5pc by August and the Fed will have to raise interest rates six times by the end of next year to prevent a wage-spiral. If it hesitates, the bond markets will take matters into their own hands. "This is the first test for central banks in 30 years and they have fluffed it. They have zero credibility, and the Fed is negative if that's possible. It has lost all credibility," said Mr Bond.