by MrBill » Thu 28 Feb 2008, 10:14:11
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'N')EW QUESTION:
If money supply is growing at the same rate as GDP, it is not supposed to be inflationary (I think I have that right).
So when the economy slows down, we inject liquidity to soften the slowdown, but now the money supply is growing faster while the rate of GDP is slowing--isn't this inherently inflationary?
When I think of recession, I think of prices being lower to induce spending by frightened consumers. I always think of rising prices in a recession as stagflation, but if my analysis above is correct EVERY recessionary period should involve stagflation if additional liquidity is being injected to stimulate the economy.
OTOH, when the economy is expanding quickly we reign in the money supply, but one of the symptoms of a hot economy is rising wages, which are viewed as inflationary. But how can mere wage growth be inflationary if the money supply is not expanding?
This thread seems to be going all over the place, eh?
Hmm, right on the first point. If money supply is growing at the same rate as inflation-adjusted GDP then it should not be inflationary. But this depends on interest rate policy. If inflation-adjusted GDP is growing at 4% then it would be reasonable to have 4% nominal interest rates that are neither contractionary or stimulative.
If you borrow at or above 4% then you would be assuming your investment or future income will grow faster than 4%. An assumption.
If you borrowed 4% to buy stock - a claim on the future revenues of a publicly traded company in the form of dividends and perhaps capital appreciation (another assumption) - then you would be doubly out of luck if that company's share price declined by 4%. You would still have to repay the principle plus 4% annual interest on your loan, plus the value of what you have bought has decreased by 4%, so you're financially worse off than had you done nothing.
So in a recession if there is negative growth then interest rates should be decreased to encourage businesses to borrow to invest to grow out of their earnings slump on the back of weak consumer demand. However, rates have to be sufficiently attractive to find any buyers due to the riskiness of those future earnings.
It would not be inflationary if you lowered rates and no one wanted to borrow because they saw no place to put that cash productively to work. However, we do have to distinguish between 'asset price inflation' and 'wage and price inflation'.
If you jack up money supply creation by making real interest rates too low thereby encouraging borrowing that extra money supply can flow into such assets as housing, equity and bonds. That's just extra money looking for a home. Like water it tends to flow first into underpriced assets (low places) first, but eventually lifts the price of all assets if the volume is large enough.
Your wage and price inflation can then can come into play as prices rise to reflect the higher cost of real estate, leaseholds, commercial property, so companies in turn demand more for their products to pay the rent so to speak. Then workers in turn start to demand higher wages to compensate them for prices that are going up all around them. In other words their expectation of higher inflation to come.
However, if asset prices are falling then even real interest rates of zero are not attractive enough to tempt buyers of assets or for firms to borrow to expand production for which they see no final demand.
The cash injections that we have most recently seen into the banking sector were not so much to stimulate demand or lending, but actually just to plug the holes in banks' balance sheets created by bad loan losses. Banks have to meet minimum reserve capital requirements, and on top of that have to have enough capital to make new loans or service existing ones. So that 'new' money actually just replaced capital losses and was not a net increase in long-term money supply. Banks would still have to repay that money borrowed with interest. That principle and interest can only come out of profits from new lending and/or the bank's shareholder equity.
If I give you ten bucks you might spend it on a meal around the corner. But if you have just lost a hundred dollars at the race track that you still owe to your bookie then if I lend you ten bucks you will not likely be able to pay your bookie back or have that meal. You still have to find another $90 somewhere else, plus another tenner for dinner. The ten bucks does not make the hundred dollar loss disappear or give you a free lunch! ; - )
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.