by MonteQuest » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 12:48:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'I')n 1990 Americans seemed happy enough with their 1990 living standards. And that is assuming less and less every year would mean reversion back to previous living standards, which it does not. A world with less oil means fewer and fewer vacations to Australia, smaller and smaller cars, but all the fancy electronics we can stand. Seriously, unless the drop is severe every year I doubt people will notice outside of an academic sense.
A 5% shortfall in the 1970's led to a tripling of gas prices and double digit inflation.
Currently, existing fields are showing a 4 to 5% decline rate with some like Cantarell, 16%, North Slope 11%, and double digits for the North sea. The trend is towards 8%.
Once the yearly decline ensues, you then add in the roughly 2% growth in demand and you get 6 to 10% decline/year.
We don't know what the decline rate will be and we have no Plan B for
any decline rate.
Meanwhile, the world's population grows at 1.2%/year and the per capita demand for energy rises as China moves 300 million to middle class each year with India following suit.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."