[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skyemoor', 'F')irst, the CAFE requirement for cars has been 27.5 mpg for decades. That means roughly half get worse, half get better.

[TonyPrep]

So, in over 20 pages (on two discussions) where JD was supposed to attack the issue of scale, what have we discovered so far?

Well, JD thinks that, in the period immediately following peak, oil will decline slowly (he cites old comments by peak oilers, ignores some later ones, and ignores any others that point to a larger decline). He thinks that, in terms of energy, those declines can be made up by growing the alternatives that are already in use (e.g. coal, gas, hydro, wind and solar), laughing at evidence that shows such growth may not be possible.

He builds up a very long list of behavioural changes that could help mitigate energy problems. But size isn't everything. Just because the numbers of actions that could be taken, in JD's view, very easily is large doesn't show that these behavioural changes, even in combination, would be large enough to offset the impact of an oil decline in the early years. Posters have pointed out problems, or potential problems, with many or all of the behavioural changes. Since a long list of behavioural changes, anyway, could certainly imply very changed arrangements for our society, having to make such changes indicates that the impacts would be very large indeed, contrary to JD's claims. In any case, we have no estimates of the practical quantification of these behavioural changes.

So can the alternatives scale? Well, we don't know. It seems that the lack of proof that they can't (though some have posted arguments about possible evidence) constitutes a kind of implied proof that the alternatives can scale. I realise that JD has denied this but his position seems to be that no planning for a post peak future is needed, since market forces will ensure that the correct changes are made to ensure that society operates much as normal (market led behavioural changes notwithstanding), so the implication is that his alternatives will scale, unless comprehensively proven otherwise.

We also learned that JD believes that economic growth will continue indefinitely, perhaps with some disruptions, due to technological leaps into obtaining resources from outside the earth. I don't wish to ridicule such a position, since I firmly held it myself, at one time, but it perhaps points to a motivation for wanting to believe that society, and the economy, can hold together long enough for the vision to be realised.

[kublikhan]

Heres another link that provides some more info on the IEA's scenarios I posted earlier. My biggest problem with these scenarios is that even under their most optimistic scenario, they still show us consuming about as much oil in 2050 as we are today(actually slightly more). That is not going to be possible because oil production will have declined significantly by then. Either renewables/biofuels/conservation are going to have to ramp up even more significantly than they have charted, or the shortfall will be met through demand destruction.
www.iea.org/textbase/speech/2007/dixon_Asilomar2007.pdf

[TonyPrep]

I've managed to read some of the "fact" sheet.

It mentions that third generation renewables are largely unproven and still need a lot of R&D. I wonder if they've assumed that these technologies will become proven and play a big part in the 2030 scenario. However, they did say this about their assumptions:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he projected increase is the result of new policies currently under discussion
- on the assumption that these policies will be implemented- as well as the
result of the extension and strengthening of policies currently in place. Most
OECD countries and an increasing number of countries outside the OECD
are considering policies to increase the contribution of renewables. For the
countries of the European Union, the Alternative Policy Scenario assumes that
additional policies will be put in place to meet the target of the directive on the
promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources.2 There are no targets
for renewables beyond 2010 at the EU level, although some countries have set
national ones. The intention, however, is to continue the shift to renewables
beyond this period.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')t mentions that third generation renewables are largely unproven and still need a lot of R&D. I wonder if they've assumed that these technologies will become proven and play a big part in the 2030 scenario.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')t mentions that third generation renewables are largely unproven and still need a lot of R&D. I wonder if they've assumed that these technologies will become proven and play a big part in the 2030 scenario.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'H')aven't found any solid statistics but here's a telling chart from those yahoos at CERA:



Doesn't look like any of your exceptions are doing much to change the overall picture.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JD', 'O')n the average, less than 2% for 20 years. I'm on the record with the following prediction:
"World C&C production will decline at an average annual rate of 1% for 15 years after the world C&C peak (whether that be May 2005, or some future date)."

[SolarDave]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SolarDave', 'G')ood points. You have essentially built the case that we only need one tenth or twentieth of the RENEWABLE energy that would be needed to power our transportation as well.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SolarDave', 'G')ood points. You have essentially built the case that we only need one tenth or twentieth of the RENEWABLE energy that would be needed to power our transportation as well.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '[')b]What do you mean by renewable and over what time frame?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') think Monte highlights an issue which we don't seem to be very good at and that is assessing all of the impacts of a proposed solution to a problem. I don't recall the orginator of the quote but Albert Bartlett uses it in his lecture on growth: "the biggest cause of problems is solutions".

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')here is no excess solar energy not being used. It is all used.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', ' ') $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'G')lobal climate change, as a result of fossil fuel use, should give you a hint about scale of impact.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')here is no excess solar energy not being used. It is all used.

With already appropriate 40% of NPP. How much more solar energy can we rob from other lifeforms and thermal systems? How much wind can we steal? Can we nick the tides as well?

Enough to replace fossil fuels?

What will be the consequences of "taking over" that much to be diverted to human use?

Global climate change, as a result of fossil fuel use, should give you a hint about scale of impact.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Sigh...like Tony said. "I think Monte highlights an issue which we don't seem to be very good at and that is assessing all of the impacts of a proposed solution to a problem."

I guess my post went right over your head.

Hint: there is no such thing as waste or excess.

1st Law of thermodynamics.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', ' ')But, of course, the amount humans use is so small, compared with the whole, isn't it? It couldn't possibly have any effect, could it? Well, the research is never done, and the lessons of history are never learned.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')If you had read my post instead of launching into your usual diatribe, you would have seen that I was mentioning already appropriated areas...

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', ' ')So therefore, if we don't appropriate further solar energy, the net effect relative to current usage is zero (or negative if we get our act together).

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')If you had read my post instead of launching into your usual diatribe, you would have seen that I was mentioning already appropriated areas...