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THE AIDS/HIV Thread (merged)

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

THE AIDS/HIV Thread (merged)

Unread postby JayHMorrison » Thu 19 Aug 2004, 22:20:32

ASIA is at a critical point with AIDS: link

One reason for Asia's complacency is low prevalence rates. Less than 1 percent of the populations of most Asian countries are infected. The good news is that Asia has a window of opportunity to avoid Africa-like outbreaks. The bad news is that HIV/AIDS rates tend to skyrocket once prevalence rates go above 1 percent. Time, in other words, isn't on Asia's side.

Investors may be able to ignore how HIV/AIDS is decimating Africa, but they'll turn a blind eye to events in China and India at their own peril. That goes for the rest of Asia, too. Africa represents about 13 percent of the world's population. Asia represents 60 percent and is home to some of the most promising economies.
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Re: AIDS in Asia

Unread postby trespam » Thu 19 Aug 2004, 23:07:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JayHMorrison', 'A')SIA is at a critical point with AIDS.

Good example of one of the forms the die-off will take. I hate to be negative and insensitive, but the increase in energy costs will put the squeeze on the lower income folks, more prostitution, less ability to care for them when they become sick, greater isolation of them into AIDS communities as the country panics at the level of the epidemic. Asia and Africa will probably suffer an enormous number of deaths in the coming fifty years because of AIDS.
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Re: AIDS in Asia

Unread postby JayHMorrison » Thu 19 Aug 2004, 23:50:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('trespam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JayHMorrison', 'A')SIA is at a critical point with AIDS.
Good example of one of the forms the die-off will take. I hate to be negative and insensitive, but the increase in energy costs will put the squeeze on the lower income folks, more prostitution, less ability to care for them when they become sick, greater isolation of them into AIDS communities as the country panics at the level of the epidemic. Asia and Africa will probably suffer an enormous number of deaths in the coming fifty years because of AIDS.

Some of the worst African countries have infection rates of 25% of the entire country. Do that in a country the size of India or China and the numbers become staggering.
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Unread postby MrPC » Fri 20 Aug 2004, 03:17:17

This isn't the 1980s. These days HIV is something you die with, not something you necessarily die from. So long as you have money or cheap generic meds that is. Does China make generic HIV meds by any chance?
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Unread postby Guest » Fri 20 Aug 2004, 04:30:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrPC', 'T')his isn't the 1980s. These days HIV is something you die with, not something you necessarily die from. So long as you have money or cheap generic meds that is.

Correct. For now at least. But as trespam pointed out, after the decline in oil production begins this probably wont be the case. Because of rising energy costs and the effects they'll have on the world economy, many people infected with HIV will be forced to choose between buying food and their medication. Either way, they're screwed. Their governments probably wont have the funds for socialized health care either.

HIV/AIDS is definitely one of the more dramatic examples of this, but I'm sure many other illnesses that are controlled now will become a problem as people are unable to afford their medications, and the ability of our industrial societies to even produce medicine and other health supplies diminishes. Even if the diseases don't kill people outright, their standards of living and life expectancies are going to take big hits.
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Unread postby trespam » Fri 20 Aug 2004, 11:21:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anonymous', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrPC', 'T')his isn't the 1980s. These days HIV is something you die with, not something you necessarily die from. So long as you have money or cheap generic meds that is.
Correct. For now at least. But as trespam pointed out, after the decline in oil production begins this probably wont be the case. Because of rising energy costs and the effects they'll have on the world economy, many people infected with HIV will be forced to choose between buying food and their medication. Either way, they're screwed. Their governments probably wont have the funds for socialized health care either.

There is a lot of debate about a possible mass die-off idea in this forum. Some of the speculation--e.g. end of the human race--is just that: Speculation. It could happen. And an asteroid could hit tomorrow, making Peak Oil moot. But I think there are strong arguments that the poor and destitude, who are sick and malnourished, will suffer greatly and many will live short lives. When resources are short, drugs and treatment, which are already difficult to come by in many places, will not be available to the poorest of the poor.
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Unread postby The_Virginian » Sat 21 Aug 2004, 14:57:18

I am surprised that people think these drugs (azt, cocktails etc.) are so wonderful to begin with. They Do tend to extend the life of an HIV?aids infectee, but they maybe double the lifespan of an infected individual.

Second they make them LOOK healthy, and they are really not, so the are simply MORE EFFECTIVE CARRIERS....

Isolation is the ONLY possible solution at this time (and I say possible). Untill we fully understand RNA/DNA at its mechanisims, we will not be able to "cure" anyone.
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Unread postby JayHMorrison » Sat 21 Aug 2004, 18:24:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Virginian', 'I') am surprised that people think these drugs (azt, cocktails etc.) are so wonderful to begin with. They Do tend to extend the life of an HIV?aids infectee, but they maybe double the lifespan of an infected individual.
Second they make them LOOK healthy, and they are really not, so the are simply MORE EFFECTIVE CARRIERS. Isolation is the ONLY possible solution at this time (and I say possible). Untill we fully understand RNA/DNA at its mechanisims, we will not be able to "cure" anyone.

I agree with you on that. There is no cure for AIDS. All these drugs do is hide the disease temporarily. A person on AIDS drugs is still out having sex and possibly spreading the disease.
Bill Gates and his foundation have invested a lot of money in AIDS prevention and education in India. But he is criticized because he will not fund drugs for existing infected people. In reality, spending money on AIDS drugs is a waste of money. People often don't take them properly and just encourage drug resistant varieties of the virus. Our funds should be spent on prevention and education.
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Unread postby MrPC » Sat 21 Aug 2004, 23:22:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JayHMorrison', 'I') agree with you on that. There is no cure for AIDS. All these drugs do is hide the disease temporarily. A person on AIDS drugs is still out having sex and possibly spreading the disease.

Except that someone on the meds has a lower viral load, which means it is far less likely that a negative partner will seroconvert relative to someone who is unmedicated and still screwing around (whether or not they know they have the virus). And don't kid yourself, both scenarios do happen.
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Unread postby Ender » Sun 22 Aug 2004, 00:02:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JayHMorrison', 'I')n reality, spending money on AIDS drugs is a waste of money. People often don't take them properly and just encourage drug resistant varieties of the virus.

Most people do take them properly. It's drilled into you how important adherence is. Sure, they're expensive, but as the patents expire and generic drugs become available it should help bring the cost down. Pharmaceuticals aren't the kind of product that is really difficult to transport when oil is scarce.

And eventually I fully expect we'll get to the holy grail of HIV medicine - viral clearance. It's already done with other nasty little virii like Hep C.
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Unread postby The_Virginian » Sun 22 Aug 2004, 14:49:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xcept that someone on the meds has a lower viral load, which means it is far less likely that a negative partner will seroconvert relative to someone who is unmedicated and still screwing around (whether or not they know they have the virus). And don't kid yourself, both scenarios do happen.

Any documentation on that theory that the "lower viral counts are under the normal threshold for infectivity" would be appreciated.
One thing to keep in mind: Up to a few years ago Hep B was considered only spread by sex, drugs and blood transfusions/accidents.

Now that they have a vaccine, they are making sure little babies get it, even though it will wear off in 5-10 years and require boosters. Why do it at all on babies if they are not sexualy active or shooting drugs? Ahah! Because suddenly the "realized" Hep b can be spread by Saliva, kissing, bites, sneezes (was an actual case w/ a school teacher) etc.

IOW, while they had no vaccine they Bravo Siera'ed the heck out of us and now that there is some help they rush to protect the next gen. Viruses, Viruses. So how many HIV viri does it take to infect a human? :!:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd eventually I fully expect we'll get to the holy grail of HIV medicine - viral clearance. It's already done with other nasty little virii like Hep C.

hmm...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'V')olume 1 issue 5 Hep C: Assessment for Treatment
Who should be treated? Because:
- the treatment for Hep C is less than 50% effective,
- there may be side effects to the treatment,
- the treatment is lengthy,
- the treatment is expensive,
it is important to identify those patients who are suitable for treatment.

link

Well its a start, but LESS than 50% effective, and they don't give an actual %...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he aim of treatment is a SUSTAINED response:
o a sustained response is determined six months after completion of therapy,
o a number of patients who have an end of treatment response will relapse,
o a relapse usually occurs within the first six months after completion of therapy,
o patients achieving a sustained response at six months after completion of therapy usually maintain a sustained response for two years and possibly indefinitely
link "possibly indefinitely" bugs me... (no pun intended).

I have read the musings of one doctor/ researcher (who is infected with HVC) that many many patients relapse after 5 years....(dr. Patricia Doyle, her daughter is sadly infected as well.) The good news is SOME can be "cured" from viral desieses, the bad news is: not the majority at this time... :cry:
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Unread postby MarkR » Sun 22 Aug 2004, 15:54:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Virginian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xcept that someone on the meds has a lower viral load, which means it is far less likely that a negative partner will seroconvert relative to someone who is unmedicated and still screwing around (whether or not they know they have the virus). And don't kid yourself, both scenarios do happen.
Any documentation on that theory that the "lower viral counts are under the normal threshold for infectivty" would be appreciated.

There is some evidence to suggest this. 1 major study, the Rakai project in Uganda, published their results in 2000 in NEJM, based on analysis of 415 couples, only one of whom was HIV+. This clearly demonstrated a correlation of risk and viral load. Several smaller studies have looked at multiple factors, and have shown similar, although less powerful results for viral load.
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New Strain of super HIV found in NYC

Unread postby some_guy282 » Sat 12 Feb 2005, 12:43:48

This virulent strain of HIV can turn into full blown AIDS in just 3 months!

Story
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Unread postby MikeB » Sat 12 Feb 2005, 12:49:19

edit
Last edited by MikeB on Thu 17 Feb 2005, 06:59:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby Phil » Sat 12 Feb 2005, 15:57:52

It's just nature's way of saying Hello.
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Unread postby RIPSmithianEconomics » Sat 12 Feb 2005, 17:24:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phil', 'I')t's just nature's way of saying Hello.


It must suck to have a personal relationship with nature. No wonder the hippy-craze died out! Communing with nature? Better to commune with condoms.
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All the proud men turned to dust
So all things time will mend
So this song will end
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Unread postby TrueKaiser » Sat 12 Feb 2005, 17:43:09

ah evolution in action.
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Unread postby BabyPeanut » Sat 12 Feb 2005, 17:52:00

HIV may have jumped from primates to humans via dirty needles. The key is serial passage which can greatly increase the virulence of a virus.

Here HIV-II is demonstrated to become more deadly to baboons via serial passage.

http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/full/77/1/77
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ncreased Virus Replication and Virulence after Serial Passage of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 2 in Baboons
Christopher P. Locher,1,{dagger} Stephanie A. Witt,1 Brian G. Herndier,2,{ddagger} Nancy W. Abbey,3 Klara Tenner-Racz,4 Paul Racz,4 Nancy B. Kiviat,5 Krishna K. Murthy,6 Kathleen Brasky,6 Michelle Leland,6 and Jay A. Levy1*

Division of Hematology and Oncology, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California 94143,1 Department of Pathology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, 92103,2 Department of Pathology, San Francisco General Hospital, San Francisco, California 94110,3 Department of Pathology and Koerber Laboratory for AIDS Research, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, D-20359 Hamburg, Germany,4 Department of Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98104,5 Southwest Foundation for Biomedical Research, San Antonio, Texas 782456

Received 18 March 2002/ Accepted 27 September 2002

ABSTRACT

Similar to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection of humans, the natural history of HIV-2 infection in baboons (Papio cynocephalus) is a slow and chronic disease that generally takes several years before an AIDS-like condition develops. To shorten the amount of time to the development of disease, we performed five serial passages of HIV-2UC2 in baboons by using blood and bone marrow samples during the acute phase of infection when viral loads were at high levels. After these serial passages, virus levels in plasma, peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) and lymphatic tissues in the acutely infected baboons were increased. Within 1 year of the HIV-2 infection, all of the inoculated baboons showed specific signs of AIDS-related disease progression within the lymphatic tissues, such as vascular proliferation and lymphoid depletion. The HIV-2UC2 recovered after four serial passages showed increased kinetics of viral replication in baboon PBMC and cytopathicity. This study suggests that the HIV-2 isolate recovered after several serial passages in baboons will be useful in future studies of AIDS pathogenesis and vaccine development by using this animal model.


http://www.creativehat.com/deadly_injections.htm
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n October 2000, Professor Preston Marx of Tulane University addressed the Royal Society in London with a revolutionary theory: that dirty needles had not simply transmitted HIV to new victims, but had actually caused the HIV/AIDS pandemic. He said that the serial passage of the virus via contaminated needles had permitted the virus to mutate through several stages from simian immunodeficiency virus, SIV, which is harmless to humans, into the deadly human immunodeficiency virus, HIV, the abhorrent virus that causes AIDS.


http://www.altpenis.com/penis_news/2002 ... _sys.shtml
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nsterile Needles The Origin Of AIDS?

Could a relatively harmless monkey virus called Simian Immunodeficiency Virus (SIV) have mutated into the deadly AIDS virus as a result of the repeated use of unsterilized hypodermic needles among 23 million Africans to whom penicillin was administered during the 1950s? Could the use of unsterilized needles world-wide be the major cause of the current spread of AIDS?

These are the two startling hypotheses of an article titled "The Injection Century," in the December 8, 2001 issue of The Lancet. The principal author of the article is Ernest M. Drucker, Ph.D., of Montefiore Medical Center's Department of Epidemiology and Social Medicine.

"It would be a cruel irony if the introduction of antibiotics into Africa in the last years of the colonial period should be associated with the origins of the HIV pandemic," say Drucker and co-authors P.G. Alcabes, Ph.D., of Hunter College School of Health Sciences and P.A. Marx, Ph.D., of the Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center at The Rockefeller University.

How did the monkey virus, usually short-lived in humans, become transformed into AIDS? The authors attribute the species crossover to a process called 'serial passage.' African hunters had, for millennia, become infected with the relatively harmless SIV through bites, cuts, and blood exposure in the course of hunting and butchering monkeys - but without the appearance of HIV.

What event occurred in Africa in the mid-20th century to cause several SIVs and the emergence of several strains of HIV in a relatively brief period?

That event was the use of unsterile syringes and needles during the massive UN sponsored campaign to combat Yaws and other diseases, according to the authors, who hypothesize that 'Serial passage' occurred in the following way: Each time an SIV-infected person was injected with penicillin, and the needle was used again, it passed on a slightly mutated version of the SIV virus to the next person injected. The virus kept adapting to each new environment, and after half a dozen mutations it was transformed into AIDS.

Drucker and his colleagues also suggest that the current spread of AIDS and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) is due largely to massive unsterile injections not only of illicit drugs (there are now 10 to 15 million injectors of illicit drugs around the globe), but also of drugs used in medical practice (80,000 to 160,000 new HIV infections per year, and 2.3 to 4.7 million new HCV infections per year) and "self injections" of medications, especially in Africa and developing countries.

While the authors agree that there is a greater awareness of this problem today they note that "...as recently as 1998, the World Health Organization still recommended re-use of syringes up to 200 times in vaccination programs - relying on sterilization routines the WHO's own studies show are usually not followed."
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Unread postby TrueKaiser » Sat 12 Feb 2005, 17:54:24

i wonder who was dumb enough to stick the same needle himself that was put into a animal?
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Unread postby KiddieKorral » Sat 12 Feb 2005, 18:05:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TrueKaiser', 'i') wonder who was dumb enough to stick the same needle himself that was put into a animal?


I could see a vet working on a monkey at a zoo slipping and accidentally sticking himself.
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