[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('slick50', 'b')ack up to $91.77. The word on the Nymex is that $84 oil is the new floor. This despite the recession looming and the "D" word being mentioned in the MSM once in awhile.

[AirlinePilot]

I'm sorry but I dont buy "fear premiums". In my book the price is the price. It doesnt matter how stable or unstable the ME is or will be. It doesnt matter who says they will cut it off or turn it on. It all matters to the market so instead of "fear" I tend to label it market forces.

Folks who use the term "fear premium" are either not telling the whole truth or don't really have a grip on why the fundamentals point to the market setting any particular price.

It's an economists construct, a poor reasoning for blaming high price on what is otherwise a normal market reacting to supply and demand or some other market force.

[FreddyH]

IEA reports New World Record set in January: 87.2-mbd
Dec revised down to: 86.45 (from 86.95)

[Armageddon]

platuea is holding steady thanks to stock drawdowns.

[Armageddon]

When counting all liquids, there is double dipping involved. I don't like that method.

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'p')latuea is holding steady thanks to stock drawdowns.

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'p')latuea is holding steady thanks to stock drawdowns.

[Sys1]

Armageddon: All right, they are lying, but then, how could you proove your claims that we are post peak? By using other numbers that suits perfectly your point of view? That's not honnest...
I admit myself having the feeling we are post peak, but official numbers are supposed to be facts, not fakes. Our credibility on this site is in the numbers, not in the feelings.
Anyway, a plateau is not enough to fight against the infinite growth paradigm which "holds" our economic system, so it doesn't appear necessary to argue if business as usual will last for more than 2 years because oil went up last month up to 87mbd.
We are in the middle of a global economic crash that doesn't say his name. Let's focus on this!

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'A')rmageddon: All right, they are lying, but then, how could you proove your claims that we are post peak? By using other numbers that suits perfectly your point of view? That's not honnest...
I admit myself having the feeling we are post peak, but official numbers are supposed to be facts, not fakes. Our credibility on this site is in the numbers, not in the feelings.
Anyway, a plateau is not enough to fight against the infinite growth paradigm which "holds" our economic system, so it doesn't appear necessary to argue if business as usual will last for more than 2 years because oil went up last month up to 87mbd.
We are in the middle of a global economic crash that doesn't say his name. Let's focus on this!

[AirlinePilot]

All of the cornies are pointing to what appears to be an anomaly along the plateau. No one knows right now whether that 86.45mbpd number is just some noise around the peak or whether it points to a trend which can sustain itself for any length of time.

The thing I keep going back to is the discovery data. It does not make sense we are going to continue increasing production with that in mind. Nor does it seem that reserve growth can continue it either.

For me there isn't enough data to decide one way or another right now, but it appears that we are struggling mightily, with both dollars and infrastructure to just maintain the plateau. I just don't see it remaining like this for much longer.

With the news of the North Sea declines and Cantarell's almost collapse over the next few years, combined with the wildly speculative ME recoverable reserve numbers I dont see how you can say "nothing to see here, all is well, move along please."

There is ample evidence to support we are past or very near to the peak. On top of that, it's possible that decline could be significantly greater than mainstream opinion agrees to.

[thor]

Oil at $96.24 .... Where is that demand destruction due to a looming recession? I ain't seeing any!

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thor', 'O')il at $96.24 .... Where is that demand destruction due to a looming recession? I ain't seeing any!

[dohboi]

"China and India will take up the slack."

Repeat after me about 2 billion times:"tata, tata, tata, tata, tata..."

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', '"')China and India will take up the slack."

Repeat after me about 2 billion times:"tata, tata, tata, tata, tata..."

[Valdemar]

The Tata Nano. Two billion people taking advantage of it would be bad.

[dohboi]

Sorry to be cryptic, Armageddon. The Tata is a small cheap car ($2000) that is being mass produced in India as the car for the Asian everyman (and -woman?). It has gotten some attention on these threads, so I thought most were familiar with it.

On the one hand, we in the motoring-crazy US have no place telling others not to drive--the Tata, as far as I've heard gets much better mileage per gallon than most cars here.

On the other hand, about the last thing the world needs is hundreds of millions of new internal combustion engines spewing CO2.

Of course, the oil is almost certainly going to be pumped out of the ground and burned somewhere anyway. Getting cars to one third of the worlds population that by and large don't have them now will certainly hasten oil's decline rate.

[whereagles]

looks like we're back into the high 90s... time to stress-test the triple-digit fence again

[dblk]

$100.01!

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dblk', '$')100.01!

[Leanan]

Another record:

$100.10

(by a penny, I think)

Oil jumps above $100 on refinery outage