[Zahl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'T')he author of this blog is tracking global net oil exports.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zahl', 'T')heir latest image sums up the situation nicely. This recent downturn lasted just 1.5 years and was not as big in volume as the huge 2001-2002 drop. The most important point to draw from that graph though is that the slump is over and net exports have increased pretty dramatically over the last few months.

[Zahl]

Their latest (December 14, 2007) graph and spreadsheet of "Net Oil Exports of Top 20" shows a huge 1.3 Mb/d increase between June 2007 and November 2007. According to that graph and spreadsheet, net exports of top 20 exporters hit a low of 39.8 Mb/d in June 2007, but had increased to 41.1 Mb/d in November 2007.

[AirlinePilot]

We are still well below the max historically. Your seeing things that are not there. Its noise about the trend, volatility along the peak/plateau. No real hard data other than a few months of uptick, and still well below the max back in 05. You need a lot more data points before you go assuming all is well.

More typical cornucopia.

[Zahl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'W')e are still well below the max historically. Your seeing things that are not there. Its noise about the trend, volatility along the peak/plateau. No real hard data other than a few months of uptick, and still well below the max back in 05. You need a lot more data points before you go assuming all is well.

More typical cornucopia.

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zahl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'W')e are still well below the max historically. Your seeing things that are not there. Its noise about the trend, volatility along the peak/plateau. No real hard data other than a few months of uptick, and still well below the max back in 05. You need a lot more data points before you go assuming all is well.

More typical cornucopia.

[AirlinePilot]

Two words.

Export Land


Lets talk in about two years or so.

[Revi]

We're back down to $95 a barrel, so everything is hunky dory again. I noticed that they reported a little sabre rattling in the straights of Hormuz, so it will probably go back up again now.

[AirlinePilot]

This is for Mr Zahl........

Export picture not so rosy

[FireJack]

Zahl can still argue because depletion hasn't become significant yet. As far as im concerned the huge and sudden declines in the cantrel and north sea oil fields spell out our future, nitpick all you want about a million barrels here or there all you want. If people like Zahl want to think in 20 years world production is going to be 100 million barrels a day who cares, just ignore him and he'll go away.

[SchroedingersCat]

Jeffrey Brown and Samuel Foucher have finally posted their piece on the top 5 oil exporters over at graphoilogy:

A Quantitative Assessment of Future Net Oil Exports by the Top Five Net Oil Exporters.

[Zardoz]

Oil falls on recession speculation - Investors fear struggling economic conditions may quell demand for oil.

Down to $92.74 at the moment.

[Zahl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'T')his is for Mr Zahl........

Export picture not so rosy

[Zahl]

EIA has just released their production statistics for October 2007:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html

October set the new all time high world supply record of 85.605 Mb/d.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zahl', 'T')heir production is rock stable or slightly trending upwards...

[AirlinePilot]

I think there is something really important to glean from all of this. You can pick and choose numbers and data which "fit" your premise and we all agree that things right now may look like a plateau.

What I tend to base my own take on is the rest of the story.

The reality is that things are obviously and measurably getting very much more difficult with regard to this whole game. Your EIA numbers(and anyone else's for that matter) are suspect. As Matthew Simmons has been pointing out for quite some time, we just dont really know what is going on in several of the bigger OPEC producers. We need far better data in order to know what is really going on.

It is evident, If your willing to admit it, that Suadi reserves look to be extremely suspect, along with other large producers. I don't think you can show any confidence there. I also am not convinced that Saudi production wont crash in a short period of time due to the water problems. You have to admit that this is possible on some level. Their field histories are not what you would consider being in their infancy.

Places like the North Sea and Mexico appear to be validating the export land model put forth recently and the price signals cant be ignored in light of supply.

To me, it is obvious we are STRUGGLING MIGHTILY to hold this production at current levels and it still remains to be seen that in the near term production can continue to rise along with projected demand. I try to look at the bigger picture and where we need to be in a few years and it doesn't appear to me that we are on a trajectory which is positive. The larger production curve is telling you something if you step back and look at the longer term.

Even if the plateau can last 10 years, which I doubt, we still have significant problems, both economic and social which arise if we continue business as usual.

[Armageddon]

I have a feeling the longer the plateau, the steeper the cliff is going to be due to the methods they are using. When you are puming 1 mbpd of salt water just to maintain , you are asking for trouble.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zahl', 'E')IA has just released their production statistics for October 2007:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html

October set the new all time high world supply record of 85.605 Mb/d.

[Valdemar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zahl', 'T')heir production is rock stable or slightly trending upwards...

[Zahl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'Y')our EIA numbers(and anyone else's for that matter) are suspect. As Matthew Simmons has been pointing out for quite some time, we just dont really know what is going on in several of the bigger OPEC producers. We need far better data in order to know what is really going on.