by BlisteredWhippet » Sun 27 Jan 2008, 16:53:17
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vampyregirl', 'L')ets go back in time for a moment. to 1907. Competing technologies include the traditional steam engine and the new internal combustion engine. Sources of power include steam, gasoline, diesel and corn ethanol.
Gasoline won out as the main fuel for automobiles. It could be produced faster and cheaper than the other esources. the diesel engine replaced the steam engine for ocean transport and eventually for running locomotives. Today the old steam engine is a relic from the past.
If some members of this forum had been around back then they probably would have been naysayers, saying the ICE could never replace steam.
Now lets fast forward 60 years or so. Diesel are used to power automobiles in large numbers. But diesel, while more efficient than gasoline engines is dirtier burning. But with modern technology its not.
Now today we have competing technologies and resources. Diesel, low sulfur and now syndiesel is coming into the mix as well. Diesel is making a major comeback. Gasoline, the old workhouse is is losing ground. Ethanol is trying to gain a foothold. Then we have hydrogen fuel cells. Then we have hybrids which can run a certain distance on electrical charge then have to be recharged or switch to internal combustion.
Which technology will become dominant? Whichever one is marketed the fastest and cheapest. Same as in the days of old.
When i finish my training an become a full fledged analyst part of my job will be reading market trends and advising the company accordingly. So i might as well start now. Like i have said before i predict Diesel to become dominant in the near future. The distant future should be interesting
If you're conservative in your analysis, I think you are foolish to conclude that diesel, a heavy-ends fuel, is going to displace the massive installed base of spark-ignition engines that can run any of the other fuels, including ethanol biofuels. Gasoline can be made from lower quality petro feedstock. Diesel is another story.
The installed base means that, for any alternative, for each consumer the benefit of change needs to overcome the existing investment. So I believe that what is likely is a change in lifestyle vis-a-vis a manifold rise in logistic sophistication in line with consumer prices. We adopt a European approach to personal transport, in other words. The existing crop of Super Huge Vehicles will remain in service.
The fact is that the models and technology for electric are in place and it is leaps and bounds better than the existing alternatives. I think ultimately that we'll see a modification of the entire transportation system. Right now in my state an initiative is being circulated to lower the freeway speed limit in support of conservation. I think the rise of alternative vehicles and alternative conveyance in every form will democratize the public roadway system to a greater and greater degree. I can imagine, systemwide, a decrease in the speed limit allowances of 25% to allow greater foot, bike, scooter, and electric vehicle access. I can imagine the partitioning of the interstate into segregated commercial and private sectors, perhaps sections will remain as high-speed corridors.
The fuel of the future is electricity. F!@k diesel. Shit is nasty bio- or not. Every time I'm riding my bike behind some greaser Mercedes its like inhaling vaporized tires.