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The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby aflurry » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 21:19:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoLotus', 'I') agree. On another note tho, this presupposes that the underwriter of the contract has any intention of honoring it. Our country is a signatory on many treaties but we have yet to fully honor any of them even when it is in our best interest to do so. Geneva Conventions anyone?
it's not the intention to honor the contract that is of significance, it is the presence of consequences if they do not. those consequences can be criminal, monetary, or credit-worthiness.

this is why i do not trust the free market fanatics. underneath, many are just trying to eliminate enforcement so they can steal more easily or without consequence. i don't think the issue is any more complicated than that. freedom to make agreements without the ability to trust that those agreements will be adhered to is not freedom at all.

but this trust is not gained by strength of character, but by a strong legal apparatus, both nationally, and since you bring it up, internationally.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby mattduke » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 21:24:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'T')he business cycle is not soley caused by the government inflation of the money supply. There were booms and busts way back into the 18th century. --snip-- Credit and real estate are two very important variables but neither soley cause business cycles. The mistake is confusing causality with correlation.
This is why it is always a mistake to try to briefly explain the Austrian theory of the business cycle within the context of a peakoil.com post. Private banks's expansion of unbacked banknotes also causes booms and busts, however not on the massively coordinated scale made possible by central banking. Maybe read Vera Smiths "The Rational of Central Banking and the Free Banking Alternative", or "Theory of Money and Credit,", or "Human Action", or "Man, Economy, and State", or "Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles", etc etc etc etc etc. You have to read large books on economics, not peakoil.com posts.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby mkwin » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 21:27:09

The free market has proved to be the most effcient way of organising goods and services into their most productive use. It is not a fanatical belief it is evident in a century of economic history.

The alternative is government control of companies and many countries have tried and do try that. They tend to be less effcient, less productive and reduce the overall wealth of the county.

The limits are the free market are really humanitarian, social and environmental. We have to limit it and tax it to support unproductive or seemingly wasted activity for these purposes. The degree to which the economy is limited depends on the politics of the country.
Last edited by mkwin on Wed 23 Jan 2008, 21:58:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby mkwin » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 21:37:25

[quote="mattduke"]This is why it is always a mistake to try to briefly explain the Austrian theory of the business cycle within the context of a peakoil.com post. Private banks's expansion of unbacked banknotes also causes booms and busts, --snip-- quote]No disrespect Matt. but I have a Masters degree in Real Estate Economics and Investment from one of the best business schools in Europe. I have read many 'large books on economics' I just don't buy the Austrian theory as a suitably complete explanation.

The expantion of credit is driven by demand for credit. If there was no economic activity there would be no demand for credit and the banking system would not be able to expand credit. Just look at Japan. Just as the demand for land and property drives the price, which in turns drives the value of land and the real estate cycle, not the other way round.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby seldom_seen » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 21:44:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', 'i')'ve tried to understand the fed paranoia people and i never get more than "rabbit hole" babble...

It's really not that hard to understand. Here's an example.

The banks can go to the federal reserve and borrow billions of dollars using worthless "assets" as collateral.

So imagine you going to take out a home equity loan for $500,000 using your home as collateral, except you don't really have a home, all you have is picture of a home that you drew on a napkin. This is your collateral, and the bank winks and gives you $500,000.

Or say that you overspent a little over the holdiays and you're having trouble paying all your huge bills. No problem, you can log in to your online bank and add a few zeros to your balance...problem solved! Sure you created a little monetary inflation...but it was all for the greater good right?

The bottom line is that if you are a willing or unwilling participant in this economy. You are owned by the fed banking system. They can deal from the bottom of the deck but you can't. So you're always a loser.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby aflurry » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 22:04:47

but aren't they going to the fed to borrow so they can turn around and re-lend to you? i thought the general point or relaxing or restricting money supply was to try to produce a countercyclical effect and reduce volitility in the business cycle.

not that i have much of a leg to stand on in the current market, but i thought that this was the point in theory. ... damn i know i'm going to get slapped for this post.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby aflurry » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 22:25:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'T')he free market has proved to be the most effcient way of organising goods and services into their most productive use. It is not a fanatical belief it is evident in a century of economic history.

The alternative is government control of companies and many countries have tried and do try that. They tend to be less effcient, less productive and reduce the overall wealth of the county.

The limits are the free market are really humanitarian, social and environmental. We have to limit it and tax it to support unproductive or seemingly wasted activity for these purposes. The degree to which the economy is limited depends on the politics of the country.


what do you say about the market's organization of energy usage?

it seems to me like the market does a piss-poor job at pricing things that are both hyper-abundant and non-renewable. oil and gasoline should (IMO) have been much more expensive all along. since they have not been, the market has efficiently organized around an energy intensive lifestyle. there are lots of indications that the market won't be able to dismantle this organization as efficiently as it built it. the only mitigating factor in the past 40 years has been the damn OPEC embargo. i don't think this can be summed up strictly as an environmental problem.

polarization of wealth is part of that efficient organization as well. so a progressive tax structure is necessary to redistribute wealth to the poorer people. this is not a humanitarian problem. without it, the economy will fail because the poor people will be wrung dry.

regarding the wealth effect of privatization,it's temporary. once the windfalls stop, the wealth will dry up.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby threadbear » Wed 23 Jan 2008, 22:40:41

Free markets are like "free love" as espoused by a purveyor of porn. Appeals to the libertarian who ignores that, in reality, if often just means someone's getting screwed.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby cube » Thu 24 Jan 2008, 02:32:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'F')ree markets are like "free love" as espoused by a purveyor of porn. Appeals to the libertarian who ignores that, in reality, if often just means someone's getting screwed.
Do you have another economic system you'd like to propose threadbear where there's less people getting screwed? :wink:
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby MrBill » Thu 24 Jan 2008, 06:16:27

Thanks, but I will take the market economy anytime over some bureaucrat deciding what's best for me, my family and my future. Cheers.
Last edited by MrBill on Thu 24 Jan 2008, 09:04:28, edited 1 time in total.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby mkwin » Thu 24 Jan 2008, 07:19:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', '
')what do you say about the market's organization of energy usage? --snip-- .
regarding the wealth effect of privatization,it's temporary. once the windfalls stop, the wealth will dry up.
While a total free market approach to the energy system is not desirable, and in most countries there is government planning and direction to certain extent, the price mechanism will be far more effective at allocating oil over the next few decades than price controls. The real danger is left wing politicians will place price controls or nationalise oil companies when oil hits $200 a barrel rather than letting the price reduce consumption and spur alternatives. Energy production and especially fossil fuel usage should have the price of the externalities or damage it causes to the environment priced in. That is why carbon taxes are important in spurring renewables further.

Time and time again free market systems have proven to be far better at creating wealth. Compare South Korea to North Korea, Japan to Burma, and the USA to the USSR. Income distribution has continued to increase, to a certain extent, but the middle classes have expanded in most countries as the overall level of wealth has continued to increase. Historically there were only the ruling elite and the peasants, then a few merchant families in each city. All the wealth was in the hands of these people in the form of property rights. If people actually had an understanding of history and an appreciation for the alternatives to capitalism they would thank their lucky stars that they live in a society where hard work is often rewarded with material success. Especially the USA. If you don't like it move to Mexico and make room for one more of the millions who would kill for your chance.

I agree with MrBill, give me life liberty and the pursuit of happiness to slaving under corrupt bureaucratic ruling elites any day.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby mos6507 » Thu 24 Jan 2008, 15:39:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '
')The real danger is left wing politicians will place price controls or nationalise oil companies when oil hits $200 a barrel rather than letting the price reduce consumption and spur alternatives. Energy production and especially fossil fuel usage should have the price of the externalities or damage it causes to the environment priced in. That is why carbon taxes are important in spurring renewables further.


This is already happening in the northeast where there is a clamoring for fuel oil assistance from the government. People are already taking handouts from Hugo Chavez. What should really happen is the assistance should go towards making houses more enegy efficient--preferably heated through means other than oil. But there is still this belief that the runup in oil costs is merely a temporary emergency.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby threadbear » Thu 24 Jan 2008, 16:04:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'D')o you have another economic system you'd like to propose threadbear where there's less people getting screwed? :wink:
You've got me there. Just about any human based system has the potential for utter degradation. :lol:
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby Concerned » Thu 24 Jan 2008, 16:35:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'F')ree markets are like "free love" as espoused by a purveyor of porn. Appeals to the libertarian who ignores that, in reality, if often just means someone's getting screwed.
Do you have another economic system you'd like to propose threadbear where there's less people getting screwed? :wink:
Free markets just need to be adjusted so that the rich are not ensconced as the de facto royalty of centuries past.A starting point on your examination might be Economic Democracy and When Corporations Rule the World.

Some other things you could look at in an economic system:
One that does not allow externalities to pass from the creating and or consuming entity, to fall on a party having nothing to do with the transaction. Indigenous people getting their land, stolen, poisoned, or otherwise marginalised.

One that is not based on constant growth.

Eliminate all debt at interest.

One that is sustainable with nature, source of raw materials and sinks of pollution.

One that does not depend on theft of other peoples resources based on military coercion. Naru, Congo, ME.

One that would actually live up to a tenth of what it promises to do. If you have free movement of capital then you also need free movement of labor.

There are many ways you can make the market better especially for the man on main street. Unfortunately most laws passed today only help wall street and the already wealthy.
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby REDEYE » Thu 24 Jan 2008, 16:35:53

Gee, it was only my second post that started this whole wonderful debate. I'm pretty thrilled to see so many bright, engaged people sounding off here. And to be a part of it all.

I would like to add one more thought of my own:

It seems clear that on one level the free market debate is over--it won. It works better than all the other systems. However, any system that simultaneously taps into our reptilian, predatory instincts and our higher creative nature is bound to be explosive and sometimes very destructive. Something like Don Quixote's windmill, it can toss you up into the stars, or down into the dirt. All I'm saying is, it has to be very carefully watched and continually re-evaluated. And that takes open debate, like this one. The free market is not gospel, not religious revelation. It's a system that's still evolving. Why is that so hard for some free-marketers to accept? Why are they so defensive?
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby Concerned » Thu 24 Jan 2008, 16:50:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')hanks, but I will take the market economy anytime over some bureaucrat deciding what's best for me, my family and my future. Cheers.
I suppose as long as you're the well off bureaucrat in the market economy and not on the receiving end of decisions that have negative impact on you and your family.

Sack 10,000 xyz workers save millions in wages and pension liabilities. Give yourself a multi million dollar pay rise.

Capitalism I'm loving it... mmmm nice freedom and tough love. Everything is just so rosy and peachy why "it's the end of history" we have discovered how to turn lead to gold :)
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby mattduke » Thu 24 Jan 2008, 17:16:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'T')he expantion of credit is driven by demand for credit.

Credit expansion (loaning unbacked paper) artificially increases the supply of credit, lowers it's price, and thereby increases demand. Credit expansion is the horse, not the cart, of the economic boom. Hey, you could go to school at Princeton and learn all about economics from Bernanke. I doubt those on the Federal Reserve career track are likely to espouse a free market in money.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby cube » Thu 24 Jan 2008, 19:20:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'F')ree markets just need to be adjusted so that the rich are not ensconced as the de facto royalty of centuries past.
I find it disappointing that so many people think the USA is some sort of wild west shoot out...let the strong survive and let the weak die off place. NOTHING can be further from the truth. We actually do have LOTS and lots of laws on the books to protect the "little man".

Let me tell you a story. Back in the middle ages in Europe the hot new venture capital funding business idea was to find a magic formula to turn lead into gold. Obviously the idea failed but alchemists did discovery that a very strong solution of sulphuric acid can eat lead metal. Somebody came up with the bright idea of completely covering a chunk of gold with lead so the object looks like lead metal. If you dip this piece into a pot of acid, the acid eats away the lead but not the gold, this gives the illusion that you've just turned lead into gold. Are you thinking what I'm thinking? I see a potential for huge profits scamming people by selling this "magic" concoction. Of course even without any knowledge of chemistry a prudent man would ask: "If an alchemist had the power to turn lead into gold he would be rich beyond imagination...so why is this weird guy standing here trying to sell me this stuff?"

What the hell am I trying to get at? There will always be clever people (some who consider moral restraint to be an inconvenience) picking on clueless people. Maybe you should stop blaming the free market system for natural human behavior. Even if you were given a magic wish and could create your own perfect Utopian government (whatever that may be)
1) no mater how many protective laws to defend the weak
2) no matter how many government agencies designed to help
....you must accept the fact that.

A fool and his money is soon parted! 8)
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby Lanthanide » Thu 24 Jan 2008, 20:40:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', 'i')t seems to me like the market does a piss-poor job at pricing things that are both hyper-abundant and non-renewable. oil and gasoline should (IMO) have been much more expensive all along.

I completely agree with this. Does it make sense that milk (a renewable resource) is more expensive than oil? What are all the things that can be done with milk? What are all the things that can be done with oil?
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Postby LoneSnark » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 01:26:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he free market is not gospel, not religious revelation. It's a system that's still evolving. Why is that so hard for some free-marketers to accept? Why are they so defensive?

We are so defensive because the market as a system is still evolving and if we fail to defend it then the government will end its evolution. And once the market is ended then we are stuck in the world we have today, doing things how they are done today. Which, for us, is unacceptable. Not only because we know things cannot always be done the way they are done today.

In a sense, our defense of the market is the defense of human creativity, something we consider too beautiful to risk losing. Worse than that, we question whether we can survive without it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oes it make sense that milk (a renewable resource) is more expensive than oil?

Since it burns oil to make milk, I suspect you can figure out why this arangement does make sense.
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