[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'Y')es, it is much more plausible to proclaim that just because we do things one way today it is the only way things can ever be done.

[LoneSnark]

Once again I see I must give my "infinity" speech. While there may not be substitutes available forever, we do not care about forever. If we limit our time-scope to, say, the next century then insufficient time has passed for anything revolutionary to have occured and we know what substitutes will be available because insufficient time has passed for us to use them up.

So, what are we going to use as energy sources? Why, oil, gas, coal, hydro, and nuclear. We are not going to be 'out' of oil suddenly, hubberts theory was that it would fall off at the rate it grew, which was rather slowely over a century.

So, over the next hundred years ever less oil will be available, but so what we have substitutes: unconventional oil, coal, nuclear, and conservation.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'I')f Japan intends a big increase is stockpiles then it will likely be yet another factor increasing prices next year bringing famine closer for many of the worlds poorest. But I guess it is an acceptable means of using there dollars for something more worthwhile than US treasury bonds.

[steam_cannon]

A few charts to chew on...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '
')
Grain supplies continue to get tighter...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', 'T')hese are certainly trends to keep an eye on. It's getting interesting out there.

Trend I've been watching
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Grain Harvest Sets Record, But Supplies Still Tight
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5539
http://www.peakoil.com/post558005.html

"Near-perfect weather in major growing areas as well as an estimated 5 percent jump in world fertilizer use helped farmers increase yields."

"...voracious global demand will consume all of this increase and prevent governments from replenishing cereal stocks that are at their lowest level in 30 years."

Global cereal stocks were expected to stand at 318 million tons by the close of the 2007 season, equivalent to about 14 percent of annual consumption.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'I')f Japan intends a big increase is stockpiles then it will likely be yet another factor increasing prices next year bringing famine closer for many of the worlds poorest. But I guess it is an acceptable means of using there dollars for something more worthwhile than US treasury bonds.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'O')nce again I see I must give my "infinity" speech. .............
So, over the next hundred years ever less oil will be available, but so what we have substitutes: unconventional oil, coal, nuclear, and conservation.

[pup55]

Like most good North Americans, I am having a little trouble envisioning widespread food shortages in NA, lasting more than the length of the average blizzard or ice storm. So I have a few questions:

First of all, if there is no food in suburbia, how long until there are piles of burning tires in the streets?

If there is no food in suburbia, will you still have to go to work? Will they shut the office down if a lot of people cannot get food?

If you are the boss, at what point do you shut down the office, in a food shortage? If one of your employees has had the brains to keep a few weeks worth of food on hand, should you ask him to share it with the rest of the people in the office? Same question for other communities/church? school?

Do you, or do you not, let the desparate housewife across the street do without food for a couple of days (not that she could not stand to lose an extra pound or two), or do you give her a few pounds of beans from your stash.

If there is a food shortage, at what point will the mickey d's run out of pre-processed, pre-packaged food? Is there really such a thing as a food shortage if mickey d's is still open? In other words, will this food shortage really affect everyone, or just the unprepared? If the mickey d's are still open, can they charge $10 for a burger?

I anticipate that in a food shortage, I could probably go for a couple of weeks just eating all of the old cans of vegetables in the back of the pantry, Although boring, I would certainly not starve. So, if someone could give some ideas as to how such a scenario will evolve, it would be good.

Like I said, I am having a little trouble envisioning this.

Water, I can see much easier. The water shuts down on one day, and everything comes to a screeching halt until or unless someone fixes it.

Food, I am thinking that disaster will take awhile to play out. By then, maybe we can lay in a supply of ramen noodles.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'L')ike most good North Americans, I am having a little trouble envisioning widespread food shortages in NA, lasting more than the length of the average blizzard or ice storm. So I have a few questions:

............................

Like I said, I am having a little trouble envisioning this.

Water, I can see much easier. The water shuts down on one day, and everything comes to a screeching halt until or unless someone fixes it.

Food, I am thinking that disaster will take awhile to play out. By then, maybe we can lay in a supply of ramen noodles.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')t is the poor who die off first

[mattduke]

"With the rising cost of milk, eggs, meat and produce contributing to the biggest jump in food prices in 17 years, consumers are starting to feel the pinch."

"Some shoppers, already dealing with falling home values and rising fuel costs, are finding creative ways to save, opting for cheaper ingredients and private-label goods and leaning more heavily on discount grocers. And restaurant diners, who have been eating out less frequently, will likely face even higher prices on menus."

baltimoresun

[mattduke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ''')Habits will change, although it's unlikely we're going to see Soviet-style queues at empty shelves.'

'It's something the industry has expected and is thus, hopefully, a manageable cycle,' he says. 'No hunger riots. But we have enjoyed food prosperity for a long time, and we're seeing the end of that.'

[LoneSnark]

Or we could eliminate the Ethanol subsidies and the food problem will go away tomorrow.

[dohboi]

Damn it! I hate agreeing with LS on anything. He is wrong about just about everything else, but right here.

Proving the adage that "even a broken clock is right twice a day."

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ''')It's going to be interesting,' says James Walton, chief economist with the food retail industry's education body, IDG. 'UK shoppers aged under 50 have so far never experienced food-price inflation.' Essentially, throughout most Britons' lifetimes, food has become cheaper. But, in December, the inflation rate (by the government's preferred consumer price index, the CPI) was 2.1 per cent, while for all foods it was 5.9 per cent. 'Habits will change, although it's unlikely we're going to see Soviet-style queues at empty shelves.'

[frankthetank]

This can only get worse.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t was lunchtime in one of Haiti's worst slums, and Charlene Dumas was eating mud. With food prices rising, Haiti's poorest can't afford even a daily plate of rice, and some take desperate measures to fill their bellies. Charlene, 16 with a 1-month-old son, has come to rely on a traditional Haitian remedy for hunger pangs: cookies made of dried yellow dirt from the country's central plateau.

The mud has long been prized by pregnant women and children here as an antacid and source of calcium. But in places like Cite Soleil, the oceanside slum where Charlene shares a two-room house with her baby, five siblings and two unemployed parents, cookies made of dirt, salt and vegetable shortening have become a regular meal.

[Ferretlover]

[pup55]

Frankthetank, you forced me to once again refer to the CIA World Factbook:

Haiti

We have done several of these lately, and the conclusion unfortunately is exactly the same.

They are trying to support 1100 people per arable square km, about five times that of the US.

42% of the population is under 14, which means that there is an excellent chance for the population to double within the next 10 years, and reach the Bangladesh population density.

63 deaths per 1000 live births, ten times higher than the US

5% of the population admitting to having AIDS, with all of that reproduction going on you gotta wonder.....

80% of the population under the poverty limit....

Unemployment? What is employment? 2/3 of the population does not have a "job" per se.

Oil production--zero
Oil consumption: 12,000 barrels per day.

I hate to say it again, but....a lot of people are going to die.

I feel sorry for the people in the Dominican Republic. They inhabit the same island, but are slightly better off. 848 people per square km, slightly better off in infant mortality, and slightly less poor, population rate about 1.5%, better off, but not much. Can you guess what is going to happen?

[mattduke]

I think the graphic says it all. Yet another expensive food article. This one at Financial Times.

ft

[mattduke]

Yet another. Got MOO? Got DBA?

ft

[SILENTTODD]

Haiti is not a fair example. It is a densely populated half of an island, Hispaniola that has had a series of grossly corrupt and incompetent governments approved by the United States for at least the last 100 years.

It may very well be the Haiti half of the island is beyond its carrying capacity. But the other half of the island, the Dominican Republic, is never mentioned when the subject of Haiti is brought up. Extremely poor also, but no where near the magnitude of problems in Haiti.