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which tech will win out?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby mos6507 » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 20:09:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')I find it interesting that people think we're somehow going to be manufacturing these hybrids/biofuels automobiles into the future more than a decade or two.


I'm sure a very large percentage of cars that get crushed are perfectly viable vehicles that just don't have resale value. A LARGE percentage of new car sales is driven by fashion rather than utility.

If heavy manufacturing starts to break down, before people revert to horses, they will pull a "Cuba" and keep existing cars on the road. It won't be good for Detroit, but it will be good for companies making batteries and forklift motors.
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby mos6507 » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 20:13:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', '
')More time passes and the fuel just isn't there, and we will end up with horses and bicycles ruling the road. (2030 and onward).


We'll never run out of hydrogen. 8)


Yep. We'll never run out of electricity either. There are plenty of electrons out there.
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby Pixie » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 20:18:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', '
')Natural gas production has peaked in North America. So has coal.
I think you are over egging the pudding. Natural gas has not yet peaked in North Amrica nor have i seen anything to suggest coal has.


I have read it several times on this site and at The Oil Drum, but I can get the data straight from the EIA:

Coal has peaked in energy content. Canada has peaked in total volume in 1996, while the USA continues producing a greater volume, but more of it is bituminous coal and lignite, and less anthracite. When burned, it produces less energy and is dirtier. This trend has been going on since 1998. To put it like an SAT question: Lignite is to anthracite as tar sands are to sweet light crude.
Here's the EIA data:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/internation ... ction.html

Natural gas appears to be more of a plateau for both Canada and the USA, but highest production ever was in 2001:
Here's the EIA data:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/internation ... ionTCF.xls
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby Plantagenet » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 23:31:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'i')f we, as a global society, were capable of planning ahead, then I might agree with you. We could have been installing solar panels and wind turbines and whatever else back when energy was cheap, but we didn't because it was not to the immediate advantage of the stock holders.

I believe it is now too late.


Too late for what?

If we were a global society planning ahead, the world goverment probably would've already locked the world into only using 1980s-style electric cars and old-fashioned solar cells and missed the development of hybrid cars, biofuels, and more efficient solar cells.

The greatest thing about capitalism is that is isn't planned ahead. That way the cheapest and best technology will take over as oil is depleted, rather then whatever old-fashioned technology was picked out and declared to be THE WAY FORWARD by some government bureaucracy. 8)
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby Tyler_JC » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 23:48:03

Coal has peaked in terms of energy content...

How do you calculate that?

(I'm moving this into open discussion based on the lack of environmental discussion)
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby deeciduous » Thu 17 Jan 2008, 00:13:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vampyregirl', 'm')y money is on new diesel technology. why? because it is much less polluting than gasoline and some new diesel engines are just as fuel efficient as hybrids.
hydrogen engines are certainly enviro friendly but the infastructure is not there to support vehicles with only a hydrogen engine. its not like theres a hydrogen filling station on every street. running cars on electric has issues. for one there speed is more limited than a combustion engine and two even the best batteries can only hold a charge for so long. i think the new diesel revolution is the future


You are looking at one tree.

The forest says we won't have enough diesel.

80 million barrels of oil a day, it does not matter if efficiency is 99.9 percent or 97 percent that would only be 500,000 barrels a day of diesel difference. and you would spend 300 barrels of oil to make each new car times 90 million

it would take 9 billion barrels to replace all the cars with alll new diesel cars...

that would be 9000 days of wastage at 97% or about 30 years

we will be ouit of oil in under 10 years. kaput.

you loose if you go for the new cars big time.

calculators disprove every "solution"

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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby vampyregirl » Thu 17 Jan 2008, 15:03:24

I agree with some of whats been said here. it will be a combination of technologies. Syndiesel combined with natural. I have posted before on the new GTL plant in Quatar and the demand in Asia. The Quatar plant will produce 260k BPD for the European market and that is just the begining. Ditto for China and other asian countries. in addition to GTL, a project is underway to produce diesel from syngas, clean burning gas derived from coal and widely used in Europe for electric production
If natural gas production has peaked in North America it sure as hell hasnt peaked in the Pacific or the persian gulf where large fields have only recently been developed.
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby vampyregirl » Thu 17 Jan 2008, 15:13:27

PS i can't see the future. wish i could. i only know what is being planned today. And i stand by my prediction the new Diesel revolution will take over at least for the immediate future. as for the distant future who knows. I'm not Nostradamous or Mother Shipton
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby Pixie » Thu 17 Jan 2008, 15:30:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
The greatest thing about capitalism is that is isn't planned ahead. That way the cheapest and best technology will take over as oil is depleted, rather then whatever old-fashioned technology was picked out and declared to be THE WAY FORWARD by some government bureaucracy. 8)


The weakest thing about capitalism is that it always chooses the cheapest and best FOR THE MOMENT. Market forces do not adjust for what might happen in ten years.

Anyway, you and I have clearly already placed our bets. I guess we'll just have to see, huh?
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby Pixie » Thu 17 Jan 2008, 15:39:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'C')oal has peaked in terms of energy content...

How do you calculate that?

(I'm moving this into open discussion based on the lack of environmental discussion)


If you look at the percentage of lignite coming out of North American mines, it is going up. Lignite contains only about 52% of the heat, on average, of anthracite or bituminous coal. Lignite is sometimes called "brown coal" and my understanding is that it is younger. It's sort of like half way between peat and anthracite. When I find some time, I will do a spreadsheet calculation showing the heat content from year to year. I was alerted to this issue from an article that was posted here at PeakOil.com. The EIA data backed up the conclusion that coal energy has peaked in North America, even if we are dragging up a higher volume of crappy brown coal.

From Wikipedia:

ANTHRACITE: heat content of anthracite ranges from 22 to 28 million Btu per short ton (26 to 33 MJ/kg) on a moist, mineral-matter-free basis. The heat content of anthracite coal consumed in the United States averages 25 million Btu/ton (29 MJ/kg), on the as-received basis (i.e., containing both inherent moisture and mineral matter.

BITUMINOUS COAL: The heat content of bituminous coal ranges from 21 million to 30 million Btu/ton[vague] (24 to 35 MJ/kg) on a moist, mineral-matter-free basis.

LIGNITE: The heat content of lignite ranges from 10 to 20 MJ/kg (9 to 17 million Btu per short ton) on a moist, mineral-matter-free basis. The heat content of lignite consumed in the United States averages 13 million Btu/ton (15 MJ/kg), on the as-received basis (i.e., containing both inherent moisture and mineral matter).

Because of its low energy density, brown coal is inefficient to transport and is not traded extensively on the world market compared with higher coal grades. It is often burned in power stations constructed very close to any mines, such as in Australia's Latrobe Valley and Luminant's Monticello plant in Texas. Carbon dioxide emissions from brown coal fired plants are generally much higher than for comparable black coal plants. The continued operation of brown coal plants, particularly in combination with strip mining and in the absence of emissions-avoiding technology like carbon sequestration, is politically contentious.[
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby Zardoz » Thu 17 Jan 2008, 17:46:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', '.')..If you look at the percentage of lignite coming out of North American mines, it is going up. Lignite contains only about 52% of the heat, on average, of anthracite or bituminous coal...

Perhaps that explains why they're willing to commit this kind of routine atrocity to get at the good stuff:

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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby Pixie » Thu 17 Jan 2008, 18:14:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', '.')..If you look at the percentage of lignite coming out of North American mines, it is going up. Lignite contains only about 52% of the heat, on average, of anthracite or bituminous coal...

Perhaps that explains why they're willing to commit this kind of routine atrocity to get at the good stuff:

Mountaintop removal strip-ming


That just speaks for itself, doesn't it?
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby Plantagenet » Thu 17 Jan 2008, 19:25:42

It will look nicer after they do the reclamation and landscaping and put in the roads and the mountain-top subdivision. :roll:
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby Pixie » Thu 17 Jan 2008, 21:05:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I')t will look nicer after they do the reclamation and landscaping and put in the roads and the mountain-top subdivision. :roll:


Just don't drink the water in that subdivision.



Or downstream.
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby mos6507 » Fri 18 Jan 2008, 06:00:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')The greatest thing about capitalism is that is isn't planned ahead.


Which is why you get things like the great depression, the dot com bubble, the housing bubble, etc...
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby Plantagenet » Fri 18 Jan 2008, 13:02:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')The greatest thing about capitalism is that is isn't planned ahead.


Which is why you get things like the great depression, the dot com bubble, the housing bubble, etc...


And why you also get cars, airplanes, mcMansions, ipods, PCs, SUVs, miracle drugs, sub-prime mortgages, rap music, Britney Spears, cell phones, the internet, etc. etc.

Completely planned economies aren't fonts of innovation. Geriatric government bureaucrats rarely dream up new things....just visit Cuba to see an economy and a society petrified forever in the year 1959 to understand that.

Almost all new technologies and consumer products and entertainment are produced by individual people or businesses that come up with new ideas in order to make money from their innovations in the capitalist system. 8)
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby vampyregirl » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 17:57:54

Capitalism is the reason we have the internet. Capitalism is the reason we have a advanced society. Capitalism is the reason we will pig out at the dinner table tonight instead of digging through the garbage somewhere looking for food. Don't knock capitalism
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Re: which tech will win out?

Postby mos6507 » Tue 22 Jan 2008, 18:53:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vampyregirl', 'C')apitalism is the reason we have the internet. Capitalism is the reason we have a advanced society. Capitalism is the reason we will pig out at the dinner table tonight instead of digging through the garbage somewhere looking for food. Don't knock capitalism


Um, the internet was initially created by the military industrial complex.

And I'm not knocking capitalism. I'm knocking the excessively short-term variety of capitalism practiced in the US.
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