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which tech will win out?

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which tech will win out?

Unread postby vampyregirl » Tue 15 Jan 2008, 12:38:53

my money is on new diesel technology. why? because it is much less polluting than gasoline and some new diesel engines are just as fuel efficient as hybrids.
hydrogen engines are certainly enviro friendly but the infastructure is not there to support vehicles with only a hydrogen engine. its not like theres a hydrogen filling station on every street. running cars on electric has issues. for one there speed is more limited than a combustion engine and two even the best batteries can only hold a charge for so long. i think the new diesel revolution is the future
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 15 Jan 2008, 12:51:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vampyregirl', 'm')y money is on new diesel technology. why? because it is much less polluting than gasoline and some new diesel engines are just as fuel efficient as hybrids.
hydrogen engines are certainly enviro friendly but the infastructure is not there to support vehicles with only a hydrogen engine. its not like theres a hydrogen filling station on every street.


As we go further and further into the post-Peak Oil era, the fact that there are numerous gas stations around won't matter as gas itself will become increasingly rarer.

As shortages develop in gas, alternative fuels like hydrogen will become more attractive. Eventually some gas stations will be converted into hydrogen stations. 8)
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby joewp » Tue 15 Jan 2008, 14:53:24

Which tech will win out?





Image
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby Pixie » Tue 15 Jan 2008, 14:59:23

We will go through a transitional period in which we have both hybrids and diesel on the road. Neither one will be dominant, because our refineries are set up to produce some of each, and they can't easily switch between. (2008-2015)

As time passes and the demand for cars that get good mileage increases, we will go to plug-in hybrids, and maybe even to diesel-electric hybrids. (2010-2025)

More time passes, and the demand will switch to smaller vehicles that are more like enclosed motorcycles than cars--little one and two person vehicles, ultralightweight, mostly for commuting at first. (2015-2039) Also, we will fix up our mass transit systems as best we are able.

More time passes and the fuel just isn't there, and we will end up with horses and bicycles ruling the road. (2030 and onward).
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 15 Jan 2008, 15:29:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vampyregirl', 'm')y money is on new diesel technology. why? because it is much less polluting than gasoline and some new diesel engines are just as fuel efficient as hybrids.
hydrogen engines are certainly enviro friendly but the infastructure is not there to support vehicles with only a hydrogen engine. its not like theres a hydrogen filling station on every street. running cars on electric has issues. for one there speed is more limited than a combustion engine and two even the best batteries can only hold a charge for so long. i think the new diesel revolution is the future

Why are you worried about that?

You will happily run on blood :-D
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 15 Jan 2008, 18:10:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'W')hich tech will win out?

Image


Then it's still a debate of fuel vs. food. The fuel will BE the food (for the horse). Might as well just turn it into ethanol, then.
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby Pixie » Tue 15 Jan 2008, 18:24:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'W')hich tech will win out?

Image


Then it's still a debate of fuel vs. food. The fuel will BE the food (for the horse). Might as well just turn it into ethanol, then.


Horses can make use of marginal land. So far, ethanol can't.
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby dorlomin » Tue 15 Jan 2008, 20:33:40

Fischer Trosch coal to oil will have a very large part to play unless ecological concerns are heard.

Quite likely some ethanols and other biofuels will have there say.

LPG will be seen for a brief period as a viable alternative.

But in the end of the day once we get to around 50 mbd I reckon public transport will the the winning technology.
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby joewp » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 00:20:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'W')hich tech will win out?

Image


Then it's still a debate of fuel vs. food. The fuel will BE the food (for the horse). Might as well just turn it into ethanol, then.


Horses can make use of marginal land. So far, ethanol can't.


Not only that, it takes massive amounts of energy and raw materials to make a car of any kind. Massive amounts that won't be as readily available in a few decades or less. On the other hand, to make a horse, take a female horse and a male horse, a bottle of wine and some old Police records... :wink:

I find it interesting that people think we're somehow going to be manufacturing these hybrids/biofuels automobiles into the future more than a decade or two. Large industrial endeavors like that will be collapsing a lot sooner than you might think. They depend on complex arrangements and movements of raw materials, labor and finished products, all of which will be too expensive for even the very rich to afford.
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby Zardoz » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 02:58:03

Horses, shmorses. Ethanol, LPG, hydrogen, etc., etc., ad nauseum.

Yeah, right.

Here's a more realistic glimpse into our future:

Image
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby Pixie » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 13:07:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'H')orses, shmorses. Ethanol, LPG, hydrogen, etc., etc., ad nauseum.

Yeah, right.

Here's a more realistic glimpse into our future:

Image



In the short run, I agree. For everyone to be driving horse-drawn carriages, we'd need more land and horses than we have.

If the collapse is too fast, we'll be lucky to have the industrial capacity to manufacture bicycles.

Funny, though. In the USA, we don't make these kind of bicycle carts, and no one buys them. What I think we'll see is a lot of people riding around rusty mountain bikes and pulling their groceries in faded baby trailers.
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby vampyregirl » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 13:45:39

Jeroen van der Veer says natural gas is the future. syndiesel etc. well i suppose he knows more than me, after all he is Chief Executive. lets see what the future unfolds.
Last edited by vampyregirl on Wed 16 Jan 2008, 14:37:16, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 14:01:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', '
')More time passes and the fuel just isn't there, and we will end up with horses and bicycles ruling the road. (2030 and onward).


We'll never run out of hydrogen. 8)
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby Pixie » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 15:30:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vampyregirl', 'J')eroen van der Veer says natural gas is the future. syndiesel etc. well i suppose he knows more than me, after all he is Chief Executive. lets see what the future unfolds.


Natural gas production has peaked in North America. So has coal. So has oil. Tar sands will not make up the difference. Long term, the future is not in fossil fuels at all.

Some people say nuclear, some say renewables. Some, like me, believe we will use a combination of many sources, but all told, they will be LESS than what we use now--much less. The future is in efficiency, animal and human power and reduction.

Vamp, please look closely at the reserves estimates, take what you know or can learn about the industry that you work in (if I am not mistaken) and critically consider what you are being told. Anyone who says fossil fuels can expand much longer is just lying.
Last edited by Pixie on Wed 16 Jan 2008, 15:46:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby Pixie » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 15:34:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', '
')More time passes and the fuel just isn't there, and we will end up with horses and bicycles ruling the road. (2030 and onward).


We'll never run out of hydrogen. 8)


Hydrogen is not an energy source. It's a storage device. It's a battery. We won't run out of seawater, if that is what you mean, but we will likely run out of generating capacity for the electricity it takes to separate it into H and O. In North America, we are currently running out of oil, coal and natural gas. So what energy source are you suggesting we make hydrogen with? Are you a solar/wind fan, or a nuclear fan?
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby Pixie » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 15:35:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Image


I had to look at that twice before I figured out what I was looking at. That's cool.
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 19:13:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'w')hat energy source are you suggesting we make hydrogen with? Are you a solar/wind fan, or a nuclear fan?


All of the above.

The idea that people will stop using high technology and stop generating energy and devolve into a horse and buggy economy as the oil is depleted doesn't seem very likely to me. 8)
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby Pixie » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 19:39:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', 'w')hat energy source are you suggesting we make hydrogen with? Are you a solar/wind fan, or a nuclear fan?


All of the above.

The idea that people will stop using high technology and stop generating energy and devolve into a horse and buggy economy as the oil is depleted doesn't seem very likely to me. 8)


And therein lies the difference between our perspectives. Every argument we've had comes down to that.

Now, if we, as a global society, were capable of planning ahead, then I might agree with you. We could have been installing solar panels and wind turbines and whatever else back when energy was cheap, but we didn't because it was not to the immediate advantage of the stock holders.

I believe it is now too late. Depletion is upon us. Every year from here on out, we will have less resources with which to build the so-called hydrogen economy. Every year, it will be harder and more expensive, and we will waste time finger pointing and trying to screw the other guy. For instance, a good proportion of the people on this list are reacting by buying bullets.

Meanwhile, our education system falters. Whose going to run those nuclear plants if we don't bother teaching physics in high school and half the students drop out anyway?

Some preparation will be done. Some hydropower stations already exist. Some nuclear plants (though I am not convinced they will be adequately run either) already exist. A few more will get built. By 2030, most of the Middle East will be using up all their own oil so they can ski indoors in Dubai, while the rest of us are on energy famine. Those places that have some form of non-fossil energy by then will continue to have power. The rest of the world...

How many nukes and wind towers and solar panels and wave generators can we install between now and then? Because that is all we are going to get.
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Re: which tech will win out?

Unread postby dorlomin » Wed 16 Jan 2008, 19:47:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', '
')Natural gas production has peaked in North America. So has coal.
I think you are over egging the pudding. Natural gas has not yet peaked in North Amrica nor have i seen anything to suggest coal has.
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