[Twilight]

I should have dug deeper. There was more. An additional 800 MW of gas turbines at Az Zour, I would guess with similar fuel consumption figures, so another 37 kb/d, running full blast through Q3 and at some level beyond. Different site, part of the same emergency initiative, announced at the same time.

The release does not actually specify liquid fuel, but given Kuwait's impressive backlog of gas-fired plants deliberately held up to make way for this, and its feature on dieselprogress.com (Google cache only), I have a hunch it will be using oil-derived fuel.

For comparison, the EIA's Kuwait page says only 100 kb/d is currently used for power generation, natural gas import projects are still at the planning stage, but domestic gas infrastructure is being expanded. Reading around the internet, it does seem that Kuwait favours gas-fired CCGTs. However, the government underestimated demand growth. Moving too slowly and displaying reluctance to curb its citizens' extravagant power consumption, it ran into a wall and needed an emergency bridge for other energy infrastructure to catch up. Hence these projects.

We can conclude that until some time in 2010, up to 152 kb/d of Kuwait's 2,150 kb/d (2006) exports (7%) will be withdrawn from market. That word "baseload" suggests much of this will not be seasonal. It will be interesting to see what EIA IPM statistics will show.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nder the first of the new contracts announced today, GE will supply 20 Frame 9E gas turbines to Kharafi National of Kuwait for the Sabiya Power Station, which will add more than 2.5 gigawatts of power capacity for the State of Kuwait. The new power plant will be owned and operated by Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity & Water.

[Twilight]

Similar trend in Saudi Arabia.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the first agreement, GE Energy has received a contract to supply gas turbine-generators for the 960-megawatt expansion of the Rabigh Power Plant in Rabigh City, on the west coast of Saudi Arabia. The project is part of SEC’s initiative to provide additional power to support the region’s economic and population growth.

Also...

• Frame 7EA gas turbines to the Al-Toukhi Company for Industry and Trading of Riyadh, the EPC contractor, for a 260-megawatt power plant in Jizan City, southern Saudi Arabia.

• 7EA gas turbines, also to Al-Toukhi, for a 120-megawatt power plant in Qunfutha City, western Saudi Arabia.

• 7EA gas turbines to the National Contracting Company Limited of Al-Khobar, Saudi Arabia, for a 111-megawatt facility in Aljouf City, northern Saudi Arabia.

• 7EA units, also to National Contracting, for a 183-megawatt power project in Tabouk City, northwestern Saudi Arabia.

[BigTex]

It is interesting, too, that there is no mention of using some kind of vast solar power collection scheme to generate this electricity.

Presumably, someone modeled the different approaches and concluded that even an inefficient energy hog fossil fuel powered setup was preferable to solar power, even in the middle of the desert, and even in the face of higher and higher fossil fuel costs.

Another thing I hadn't thought about much was that the spread of prosperity in some areas is probably a lot more energy intensive than others. For example, if a tropical paradise went from being primitive to civilized, there might not be a HUGE change in energy consumption. However, when people in the middle of the desert decide they're tired of sweating all the time and want 24 hour a day climate control, the change in energy consumption could be enormous.

The fact that some of these ME populations are growing in both numbers and levels of prosperity is not good at all from an energy export perspective.

To the question about what the Kuwaitis are doing with all of that electricity, I suspect they're just running the A/C.

I wonder what kind of building codes they have in Kuwait and how much focus there is on energy efficiency.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'N')ow imagine ConEd or PG&E making the same demands. I'm talking mass texting an order with exclamation marks. Hmm? Not likely, is it?

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'I')t is interesting, too, that there is no mention of using some kind of vast solar power collection scheme to generate this electricity.

Presumably, someone modeled the different approaches and concluded that even an inefficient energy hog fossil fuel powered setup was preferable to solar power, even in the middle of the desert, and even in the face of higher and higher fossil fuel costs.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', 'I') guess starvid the important point your missing is the rate of price rise will hugely increase because of the exporting nations no longer exporting.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'I')t is interesting, too, that there is no mention of using some kind of vast solar power collection scheme to generate this electricity.

Presumably, someone modeled the different approaches and concluded that even an inefficient energy hog fossil fuel powered setup was preferable to solar power, even in the middle of the desert, and even in the face of higher and higher fossil fuel costs.

[yesplease]

I think that ultimately they feel adding a bit of generation capacity for peak load is worth the likely small drop in revenue from the correspondingly small amount of oil used for it's operation during the hottest times on the hottest days. Besides, better to do it now while oil's under $200/bbl and get it switched over to NG, something there isn't as much of an export market for AFAIK in a year or so, than deal w/ power outages from now until it's put in later w/ oil at $200+/bbl.

Also, just like someone who makes tens of millions per year driving a $500,000 sports car when they could drive a $10,000 compact, at ~$1.2 billion/day from oil, they can afford to splurge a bit. Speaking of which, didn't the Bush family have ties to the Saudi Royal family? It would certainly help having someone in a high up place insuring as much consumption as reasonably possible from their number one best customer.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'A')nother thing I hadn't thought about much was that the spread of prosperity in some areas is probably a lot more energy intensive than others.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'O')ne small point though, it is by no means a valid assumption that these are peaker plants. In the case of Jizan at least, power and desalination, so by definition baseload.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')t doesn't seem like they're using the additional generating capacity to allow expansion of the desalination plant, but if you have information that shows otherwise, please bring it to the table!

[yesplease]

It's proof of the demand side of Export Land, until of course they switch over to NG. Since, like most trends, we can't say anything concrete about it until it's established itself as a trend, and clearly this specific example as a trend probably won't continue for much longer, by virtue of it's stated operation, it's viability as an example of this trend is suspect to say the least.

Like you linked, initial trends regarding gains in consumption may be indicative, but picking out a specific project that will only operate on oil for a couple years is definitely reaching. Why not state that people's cars breaking down is Demand Destruction In Action?

Micro instances do not macro behavior make! Unless of course we're appealing to d00m here on PO dot com... If SA's behavior regarding exports/consumption continue for a while based on the difference between 06/07 data, that's EL at work. But the vanishingly small use of some peaker stations that are slated to switch over to NG in a couple years? I don't thinks so...

P.S. Anything can look "exponential", especially if expressed as a collection of piecewise exponential functions, so don't fall into the herd mentality w/o looking at what you're saying first. It's unbecoming IMO.

[Twilight]

This is a single example, one of many that make up a trend already observed in EIA data. A single example does not of course make a trend, but many similar examples create one. This is one concrete example of such a component, which will make a contribution for a time even if not in perpetuity. And this is my only goal in this thread, not to preach doom, but to say in supplement of all of the people talking about Export Land in general terms - here is a name. It is a contribution, not a slam dunk. It is a supplement to the debate in something other than general terms. Anything else is what people want my position to be, not what it is, and I have no further wish to argue semantics.

[yesplease]

I think all the similar examples would have to be included in the trend, to make it the trend, as per EIA data. But, like I said before, it isn't proof of the demand side of Export Land, that would be trends as per the EIA data over a sufficient time period.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'I')t is proof of the demand side of Export Land.

[Twilight]

Reuters: UPDATE 1-Iran halts fuel oil exports, stockpiles for winter

Relevant for the following details:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Reuters', ' ')SINGAPORE, July 31 (Reuters) - Iran, a regular exporter of fuel oil to Asia, will halt shipments of the heavy fuel from August as it builds domestic stocks ahead of winter, and due to a heavy fourth-quarter maintenance season, industry sources said on Thursday.

Iran has been shipping out about 1.2 million tonnes of the residual fuel monthly since April. Rising domestic consumption and a lack of gas alternatives had also forced it to reduce exports over the past two winters.

"This is true, we will be concentrating on building up stocks for use at our power stations," a source familiar with the fuel oil export programme said.

Iran's decision came on the heels of Saudi Arabia's move to not resume spot fuel oil exports after its peak summer demand season, due to persistently strong requirements from domestic power plants and new secondary refining units.

Robust economic growth in Middle East oil-producing nations has spurred industrial demand for utility fuels, as power usage across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) grows at an annual rate of around 8 percent.

Gas projects have also failed to keep pace with demand for power generation. Apart from Qatar, all Gulf states are short of gas.

[AirlinePilot]

I think its time we start talking seriously about this here at PO.com. I see it mentioned frequently but it appears that we hand wave it away at times. This IS likely the real bump coming in the road when it comes to the effects of PO. This link to the Wiki on the topic is a good primer and there is much info over at TOD on this topic.

Lately one of the members over at TOD (west texas) makes regular posts concerning this metric and what it means with regard to global declines and i will link his data routinely here in this thread. Other discussions are encouraged. I believe getting a handle on this particular aspect of the current global oil picture is very important in the search for where all this leads. link

[Grautr]

The two examples I know of are Britain, which peaked in North Sea crude in 2000 and became a net importer by 2007.

Mexico peaked in 2005 and is due to begin importing in 2011.

The real blip will occur when this happens to SA.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') think its time we start talking seriously about this here at PO.com. I see it mentioned frequently but it appears that we hand wave it away at times. This IS likely the real bump coming in the road when it comes to the effects of PO. This link to the Wiki on the topic is a good primer and there is much info over at TOD on this topic.

Lately one of the members over at TOD (west texas) makes regular posts concerning this metric and what it means with regard to global declines and i will link his data routinely here in this thread. Other discussions are encouraged. I believe getting a handle on this particular aspect of the current global oil picture is very important in the search for where all this leads.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grautr', 'T')he two examples I know of are Britain, which peaked in North Sea crude in 2000 and became a net importer by 2007.

Mexico peaked in 2005 and is due to begin importing in 2011.

The real blip will occur when this happens to SA.