[Twilight]

Don't count me as a LATOC subscriber just yet...

I agree that some will survive, but the point I am making is it will be according to local good fortune and not as a result of national initiative. Some communities will be well-positioned with the requisite cooperation, teamwork, motivation and resources, but most will not. Our foreknowledge will give us better odds of choosing wisely than the average case. But on aggregate, we are looking at collapse, and the prevailing thrust of human behaviour is likely to positively reinforce the process.

So there is every incentive to do something for yourself and your little group, but I wouldn't waste my energy trying to get the country to follow. Nor am I advocating duck & cover as the mythical nukes fall. Just realism about what is achievable.

[Twilight]

No great loss; people gullible enough to be led on by some guy on the internet are a cut below the hundreds of millions being led by some guys on the TV. Truth is it will be different everywhere and you have to gauge local risks and opportunities, not worry about the Tom Clancy stuff.

[Zardoz]

Yet another example of how BushCo knows precisely what is coming, and has all along:

2006 State Of The Union address

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')reakthroughs on this and other new technologies will help us reach another great goal: to replace more than 75 percent of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025. (Applause.) By applying the talent and technology of America, this country can dramatically improve our environment, move beyond a petroleum-based economy, and make our dependence on Middle Eastern oil a thing of the past. (Applause.)

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') showed some of the town planners End of Suburbia, and they watched it.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'F')or those who are curious: I banned this guy from the LATOC forum for posting links to illegal copies of Crude Awakening.

He spends a disturbing amount of time and energy obsessing over me now here at PO.com. He should know I'm heavily armed and prepared to defend myself should he get any wise ideas about taking his beef with me off the forum and into real life.

[Revi]

Please quit the feuding and let's talk about the Export Land model. It seems like one of the clearest pictures we can imagine of what the future holds. I think if we start planning for what it says we may have a shot at making it through what's coming. I wonder if a place like Sweden is planning on that kind of a drop in available petroleum? Is there any place that's planning on making it through a drop of 2/3rds or more? 12 and a half years is right around the corner. It could get nasty. Time is running out. Peak oil is coming pretty quickly.

[Cyrus]

This is why I have absolutely no hope of a steady transition. The data is there, and instead of discussion the implications (which are absolutely insane even by "doomer" standards) we sit here and argue about personal issues. There is no hope for an easy transition, don't kid yourself.

[Zardoz]

Another take on this:

Prediction #1 (of 4) from Oil Geologist Jeffrey Brown: Producers’ Own Consumption Rising, Exports about to Plummet

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')imply put, Brown says the world hasn’t been taking into account the rapidly rising consumption of oil in the very countries the world depends on to export large quantities of crude – places like Saudi Arabia and Russia. With oil consumption rising in these oil-producing states – and with production looking like it is declining – Brown says the amount of oil available for export globally is about to plummet, setting off what he calls a net export crisis that threatens the global economy and will lead to sweeping social and economic changes in the United States.

[Revi]

I'm seeing the implications around here.
A lot of people here in Maine have a car or truck that is about twice what they can afford (and need) and live in a house they can't afford to heat. They are becoming painfully aware now. Unfortunately this is still "vacationland" so there are all sorts of people who come up here in their SUV's and flaunt the fact that the rising price of everything bothers them not a bit. It's going to be hard for people to face reality. They should be getting around in a Ford focus, and not an F-350. Unfortunately they won't be switching until it's too late. Then they'll drive a pair of shoes.

[AirlinePilot]

We wont get the masses o do anything on a meaningful level until there is large scale shortage and economic pain. Thats the bottom line I think.

We all know that by then (which is probably very soon) it will be far too late. This Export land model just means sooner rather than later.

I think another good analogy of what can happen is the world presented in Cildren of Men.

[Twilight]

Over a week ago I mentioned this, but the thread sank.

Now I have time to elaborate. Here is what I was referring to.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nder the first of the new contracts announced today, GE will supply 20 Frame 9E gas turbines to Kharafi National of Kuwait for the Sabiya Power Station, which will add more than 2.5 gigawatts of power capacity for the State of Kuwait. The new power plant will be owned and operated by Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity & Water.

This will be an emergency power, fast-track project with an aggressive delivery schedule. The gas turbines will be manufactured at GE’s facilities in Belfort, France, with shipments to the project site planned for October 2007 through June 2008. The commissioning phase for the new units is expected to begin in May 2008 and be completed in September 2008.

The Sabiya plant will operate in simple-cycle base load mode, initially using liquid fuel with plans to switch to natural gas when it becomes available in approximately three years.

[aflatoxin]

The Frame 9 machines are the big ones....Usually about 200-225 Mw each in simple cycle mode. The 2.5 GW total number seem way low, but based on 125 MW each.....

A conservative guestimate of fuel consumption would be something like 8500 btu/bhp-hr, so these ~167,000 horsepower engines will use somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.42 e+9 btu/hour. This translates to approx 10,000 gallons per hour per unit. times 20. So, running all 20 units balls out is going to use something like 200k gallons per hour, or a little less than 5k barrels an hour.

I've seen a lot of Frame 7 turbines(125-150 MW), and they burn, from memory, about 25 pounds of either NG or fuel oil a second. Given that these units are different, but the fuel usage is about the same per MW of output, I think the 5k per hour for the frame 9 units running at 125 MW is pretty close. If I was at work, I could look up the real values, I will if there is real interest. We have done a lot of performance tuning on GE turbines over the years, and I have access to a lot of information on them.

Just think, they can burn 120,000 barrels a day at this place. Wow.

When they go to NG, this place will burn something like 25 million CF a day per unit, or 500 Million CF a day total. Might actually be a lot more, though.

Simple cycle gas turbines are fuel pigs, usually ~30% efficient. Must really need the juice. Iraq maybe.

[Ayame]

You are right to be worried over this. The Export Land model is very troubling. I nearly dropped my lunch when I read a recent article about how if as many cars are sold in 2008 as this year in Venezuela that it will have no surplus fuel production for export and may even have to import. Not looking good.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflatoxin', 'I') think the 5k per hour for the frame 9 units running at 125 MW is pretty close. If I was at work, I could look up the real values, I will if there is real interest.

Just think, they can burn 120,000 barrels a day at this place. Wow.

[MD]

In the simplest terms, the "export land model" means that the rest of the world will no longer allow the United States to consume more that its share of energy inputs. This pressure will continue to build.

The other point this thread demonstrates so well is the need to watch capital flows. Watch the money and you'll see where we are headed.

I've made these points a few times over the years and the threads typically sink. It's nice to see activity in that direction. Thanks Twilight.

[Twilight]

I looked up the 9E gas turbine: page and brochure.

It is a 126.1 MW unit, so 2.5 GW from 20 units is correct.

Heat rate is given as 10100 Btu/kWh (10653 kJ/kWh). That is indeed 10,000 gallons per hour - aflatoxin was spot on. That is nearly 4,800 barrels/hour for all 20 units, which is 115 kb/d.

Kuwait's 2006 oil production rate was 2,535 kb/d according to US EIA IPM Table 4.2, but Table 1.2 shows a steady decline through the year, with the 2007 average 2,428 kb/d so far. An all liquids table shows 2006 production of 2,674 kb/d, demand of 524 kb/d and net exports of 2,150 kb/d. I will take that data as reliable, though it is only a snapshot and the ratio will not stay that way for long.

Note also that half of Kuwait's (significant) refinery output is kerosene and distillates. It is not going to import the fuel, it already produces it for export.

What this shows is that the Sabiya Power Station project, indeed an emergency addition of baseload (simple cycle no less!), will from Q4 2008 remove over 5% of Kuwait's exports in a step change, until 2011 at the earliest. Thereafter it may switch over to natural gas as planned, or the "temporary" compromise may become permanent, with an addition of steam turbines closing the cycle.

Given this earlier revelation, I believe this is a big deal. Not only because the duration of Kuwait's production plateau has already been greatly shortened (that's the bigger picture, if you will), but because it confirms that significant capacity additions to compensate for internal demand growth are out of the question.

I agree with MD, news of energy-intensive capital investment is coming in regularly from all over the world, and every project makes a contribution to local energy and other commodity demand growth. For example, a new plastics plant in Qatar or KSA removes the opportunity to supply a new plastics plant in the US or France, however lucrative the one-off sale of equipment. However, it is not every day that you get an example with an effect so easy to estimate and so quick and easy to verify.

This particular news snippet was not supposed to happen, internal demand growth projections would not have included it, and it dropped in everyone's lap a week and a half ago out of the blue. This project is in addition to existing demand growth in transport and manufacturing.

Therefore I would like to bring this to people's attention as an Export Land Effect case study validating the Export Land Model, and also as an interesting unexpected event which I believe will be felt. We at PeakOil.com may in fact be the first to put a number to it, and it will be worth revisiting this in 18 months to check whether it shows up in EIA data. I will be surprised if it does not.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'T')herefore I would like to bring this to people's attention as an Export Land Effect case study validating the Export Land Model, and also as an interesting unexpected event which I believe will be felt.

[DantesPeak]

Thanks Twilight for the the summary.

Based on reports from the oil tracking service, Oil Movements, which is no Chicken Little as far as expecting OPEC production to fall, OPEC shipments over the last few months have fallen faster than production (see Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling ).

In June, this was partially explained by the impact of Typhoon Gonu. However as we go from July to August, we hear some suspicious sounding second hand reports that OPEC is accumulating inventories instead of exporting. This doesn't sound correct to me for two reasons - 1. Prices are at all time highs, so why hold back now? 2. The Saudis are selling oil to the US at a $1 discount to Europe and at an even larger discount to Far East countries, but US imports are starting to fall.

I also posted in the Saudi production thread that new production and refinery capacity of 400,000 bpd coming on line about 2010/2011 will be used entirely for internal purposes.

These are troubling signs that we should soon stop paying less attention to OPEC production reports and pay more attention to actual OPEC exports.

[Starvid]

What is so very hot with the Export Land model anyway? I never understood that.

Okay, we all know that in the next couple of years supply of liquid fuels will either stay flat or increase or decrease a little. Right. We also know that, barring a global recession, demand will keep growing, especially in the developing world, which includes many oil exporting countries who are getting rich not only by the current great globalisation-fanned global growth, but are also supercharged by the high price of oil and who might also be subsidising domestic oil consumption. Hence the famous "alligator jaws" graph.

The result is as ever higher oil prices on the world market.
Did I miss anything?

Ps. Edited a little.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '.')..Hence the famous "alligator jaws" graph.