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Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

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Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby joe1347 » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 00:43:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')ttp://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=a-solar-grand-plan
A Solar Grand Plan By 2050 solar power could end U.S. dependence on foreign oil and slash greenhouse gas emissions By Ken Zweibel, James Mason and Vasilis Fthenakis:

A massive switch from coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power plants to solar power plants could supply 69 percent of the U.S.’s electricity and 35 percent of its total energy by 2050.
A vast area of photovoltaic cells would have to be erected in the Southwest. Excess daytime energy would be stored as compressed air in underground caverns to be tapped during nighttime hours.

Large solar concentrator power plants would be built as well.
A new direct-current power transmission backbone would deliver solar electricity across the country. But $420 billion in subsidies from 2011 to 2050 would be required to fund the infrastructure and make it cost-competitive.

While our elected representatives continue to do their best to kill off alternative energy - the Scientific community doesn't seem to be intimidated in the least. Hopefully, a few of the mainstream news mags (Time, Newsweek, etc.) follow suit over the next few months and publish yet more on alternative energy.

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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby rdsaltpower » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 01:07:52

As dreamers do!
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby Cobra_Strike » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 02:48:17

The mainstream media will not pick this up in a meaningful way, it goes away from the centralized power generation that makes the bottom line...
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby Oil-Finder » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 03:26:03

How can you say the mainstream media has not picked up on this when there's a front cover article on it in Scientific American? :roll: If I'm not mistaken, SciAm is the most widely-circulated science magazine in the country.
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby steam_cannon » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 03:59:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', 'H')ow can you say the mainstream media has not picked up on this when there's a front cover article on it in Scientific American? :roll: If I'm not mistaken, SciAm is the most widely-circulated science magazine in the country.
He can say it's not mainstream because the majority of people who failed calculus don't read it. Scientific American has a great deal of legitimacy and credibility, but those just aren't mainstream concepts. That's part of the reason peak oil is not a mainstream concept. And unfortunately, what color is better and which celebrity has the worst hair are most of what makes up the mainstream.

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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby Oil-Finder » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 04:21:55

^
Well if you ask me, SciAm is about as mainstream as you can get.
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 04:27:46

Only $420 billion???

No way. Never happen. Americans would much rather invest that kind of money in idiotic oil wars instead.
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby GreyGhost » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 07:27:52

The scientific community likes to think in terms of 50 year time spans, because it's fun. And they know (and don't care that much) that politicians never will think beyond the nect four-year election cycle.

The trick is to gradually make these sort of ideas become part of the common knowledge so that it becomes more acceptable for it it be voted in.
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby joe1347 » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 10:16:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GreyGhost', 'T')he scientific community likes to think in terms of 50 year time spans, because it's fun. And they know (and don't care that much) that politicians never will think beyond the nect four-year election cycle.

The trick is to gradually make these sort of ideas become part of the common knowledge so that it becomes more acceptable for it it be voted in.


Agree. We need to hear phrases along the lines of "if we only spent 1/4 of what the Iraq war cost on alternative energy, the US would become energy independent" coming from the non-scientific media. Once the overwhelming majority of the public believe that it's true, then the politicians will finally act. But when Archer Daniel Midlands (ADM) and Exxon-Mobil are some of the biggest advertisers (in the mainstream media), it may be difficult to get out the message (i.e, the truth) to the public instead of constantly hearing that we just need to plant more corn and drill (for oil) more and the problem's solved.
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 10:57:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joe1347', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=a-solar-grand-plan

A Solar Grand Plan

By 2050 solar power could end U.S. dependence on foreign oil and slash greenhouse gas emissions

By Ken Zweibel, James Mason and Vasilis Fthenakis

A massive switch from coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power plants to solar power plants could supply 69 percent of the U.S.’s electricity and 35 percent of its total energy by 2050.

A vast area of photovoltaic cells would have to be erected in the Southwest. Excess daytime energy would be stored as compressed air in underground caverns to be tapped during nighttime hours.

Large solar concentrator power plants would be built as well.
A new direct-current power transmission backbone would deliver solar electricity across the country.

But $420 billion in subsidies from 2011 to 2050 would be required to fund the infrastructure and make it cost-competitive.


While our elected representatives continue to do their best to kill off alternative energy - the Scientific community doesn't seem to be intimidated in the least. Hopefully, a few of the mainstream news mags (Time, Newsweek, etc.) follow suit over the next few months and publish yet more on alternative energy.

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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby SILENTTODD » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 15:31:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'O')nly $420 billion???

No way. Never happen. Americans would much rather invest that kind of money in idiotic oil wars instead.


Have to agree with you eastbay. I have seen figures now that say the total cost of the Iraq fiasco will be 1 Trillion (1000 billion) dollars. And that’s only if W’s IQ suddenly increased 50 points and we pulled out in the next 90 days!

My fellow Americans, there are only 2 candidates for President of the United States who have publicly stated their platform is an IMMEDIATE withdrawal from Iraq. Democrat Dennis Kucinich and Republican Ron Paul. As a side benefit the platform of both is also an IMMEDIATE withdrawal from the WTO and NAFTA trade fiascos (great minds think alike!).
Either of these 2 are BETTER than ANY of the rest!!
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby Twilight » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 15:56:44

The problem is there may be no window of opportunity.

At present it is affordable but not required as other energy sources are adequate.

The future is likely to bring almighty demand destruction and declines in tax revenue that make $420bn of subsidies unattainable.

So how do you sell it? It won't fly now, it probably won't fly when it is needed. Catch-22.
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby Loki » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 18:14:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'I') have seen figures now that say the total cost of the Iraq fiasco will be 1 Trillion (1000 billion) dollars. And that’s only if W’s IQ suddenly increased 50 points and we pulled out in the next 90 days!

Hey, it could happen. :wink:

Unfortunately, neither Paul nor the Big K have a chance in hell of winning. I like Paul much better, but I could stand 4 years of Kucinich (especially given his hot wife---much easier on the eyes than Laura Bush, who looks like she has Downs Syndrome). Unfortunately my state is utterly irrelevant, so who I like or do not like in the primary matters not one whit. It will all have been decided by the time backwaters like Oregon get to vote. Freaking ridiculous. American democracy in action.

I certainly don't have high hopes from the Dims, but even a Hillary victory would probably be better than any of the Pubs. With the exception of Dr. Paul, they are nothing but a bunch of ignorant, shallow, corrupt rubes. And none of them, including Paul, will do anything to ameliorate the energy crisis.

But I'm self delusional. The Dims' latest shameless capitulation on the energy bill is a crystal clear sign of what kind of corrupt cowards they are. Scientists can point out the obvious until they're blue in the face, it won't matter as long as our political class is beholden to Big Business and a willfully ignorant electorate.
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby Loki » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 20:12:28

Just finished reading the original article. An interesting plan. We definitely need something like it. But I have two major problems with it.

First, they say NOTHING about conservation. That's criminal. Conservation should be our first and foremost priority. That means reducing per capita use AND reducing population growth (easily achieved by simply ending mass immigration). Their plan includes a 1 percent annual increase in demand (70 year doubling rate), which I suppose gives it some wiggle room. But to completely ignore conservation, by far the most cost-effective way to "generate" energy, is absurd.

Second, they seriously minimize the environmental impact of their plan. They describe Southwestern ecosystems as "barren" with "no competing use value." I grew up in the Sonoran desert, and I can say with certainty that it's not "barren." It's profoundly ignorant to characterize it as such, and speaks to the authors' sloppy research / anti-environmental bias. I made a map (below) to show what 46,000 square miles look like, the area they figure we would need to cover with solar panels by 2050 in order to implement their plan.

The authors strike me as engineer types, "green" cornucopians who think we can and should build our way out of the impending energy crisis. I don't deny that there is a place for this mindset, but to utterly ignore conservation and to discount the environmental impact of effectively paving 46,000 square miles is irresponsible at best. I'm not familiar with compressed air or molten salt technology, so I can't comment on them, but their plan seems to hinge on these mostly untested techniques of storing solar energy (just more vaporware?).

I fully support solar energy development and subsidies, and SciAm presents an interesting plan to help achieve that, but one with some serious flaws. I would have told these authors/editors to revise and resubmit.

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Last edited by Loki on Sun 23 Dec 2007, 20:15:03, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby Nano » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 20:13:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'F')reaking ridiculous. American democracy in action.

[...]
Scientists can point out the obvious until they're blue in the face, it won't matter as long as our political class is beholden to Big Business and a willfully ignorant electorate.



So there will be a good old-fashioned revolution in the US when every american starts to talk like this? What kind of revolution, and into what?
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby cube » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 20:31:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '.')... Scientific American has a great deal of legitimacy and credibility, but those just aren't mainstream concepts. ...
*cough*
Scientific American is not that much different then popular mechanics or popular science. It may be mainstream but definitely NOT legitimate.

Popular mechanics is basically the opposite of doomer porn. It is a technology-fetish utopia masturbation fantasy for nerds. Scientific American is one notch above that in reliability but it falls very short of being "credible". The only way to be "credible" is to pass rigorous scientific peer review and unfortunately this solar idea does NOT cut the mustard. If I said water boils at 100 degrees Celsius that is "credible" because it has been proven over and over again. This solar idea is just a pie in the sky fantasy.
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby Nano » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 20:37:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'B')ut to completely ignore conservation, by far the most cost-effective way to "generate" energy, is absurd.


Conservation will come automatically via the pocketbook. People will drive less.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')econd, they seriously minimize the environmental impact of their plan. They describe Southwestern ecosystems as "barren" with "no competing use value." I grew up in the Sonoran desert, and I can say with certainty that it's not "barren."


But it has no competing use, right? That's good enough for me.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he authors strike me as engineer types, "green" cornucopians who think we can and should build our way out of the impending energy crisis.


Better to think that, than the alternative, which would certainly bring panic, war and revolution.

The solar plan must be enacted sooner or later, everybody in the (sustainable) energy sector has known that since before Carter. People will always need energy, so provide them with it and build sustainable energy sources economically. Solar (today's tech) is by far the most economical in the long term. The government must support solar energy producers by guaranteeing that the electricity will be bought at *todays* prices or better for 20 years. If Hillary Clinton is going to do that, than vote for her. If such a law comes into force, then maybe I'll pack my bags, come over and join in the fun, being an "engineer type" and all.

Incidentally: PV-panels have their function and place, but CSP technology is going to be providing base load electricity within the next few decades if government policy is made to shield it from possible energy price collapses in the future. Nobody I know is teeing up to be callously left to bankruptcy like what happened in the '80s to most sustainable energy operators.
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby sicophiliac » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 21:16:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '.')... Scientific American has a great deal of legitimacy and credibility, but those just aren't mainstream concepts. ...
*cough*
Scientific American is not that much different then popular mechanics or popular science. It may be mainstream but definitely NOT legitimate.

Popular mechanics is basically the opposite of doomer porn. It is a technology-fetish utopia masturbation fantasy for nerds. Scientific American is one notch above that in reliability but it falls very short of being "credible". The only way to be "credible" is to pass rigorous scientific peer review and unfortunately this solar idea does NOT cut the mustard. If I said water boils at 100 degrees Celsius that is "credible" because it has been proven over and over again. This solar idea is just a pie in the sky fantasy.


Well considering the name "Popular" mechanics what a surprise that it would promote facinating and cutting edge technology that intellectually curious people might just be interested in reading about? The whole notion of invention and technological progress goes hand in hand with a CAN DO positive attitude! I mean do you really think many of the great scientific minds out there made their discoveries and breakthroughs the first time around? Hell no.. they failed over and over again but kept at it until success was achieved. Last time I checked solar cells did produce electricity.. I am sure they have been tested over and over again and produce a current when exposed to sunlight.. not much fantasy there. Silicon is although expensive to produce the most abundant element in the earths crust.. thats a fact. The sun will be around for billions of years so no issue there.. want to dispute that fact? Please explain to me how solar thermal is unfeasible also? Last time I checked they use the same basic boiler technology that 100 year old coal power plants use but the only difference is they use parabolic mirrors to generate the heat from sunlight as opposed to burning fossil fuels. But yeah those mirrors sure are high tech and pretty theoretical at this point.. and it will take some bright mathematicians to comprehend the head turning algebra 1 equations to understand the shape of a parabola.
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby cube » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 22:04:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sicophiliac', '.')...
Well considering the name "Popular" mechanics what a surprise that it would promote facinating and cutting edge technology that intellectually curious people might just be interested in reading about?
....
I have nothing against these magazines, in fact being a tech geek I read them too!

HOWEVER:
It is important to distinguish the difference between "entertaining ideas" and hard science even if every advancement began as an fanciful idea. Until something gets put through rigorous Scientific peer review / independent verification it remains as a pie in the sky fantasy.

It is an insult to Scientists who do *serious proof in the Laboratory* to lump this entertainment magazine as science. This is an entertainment magazine not a science journal. Furthermore (no insult to anybody) I consider it a bit "naive" to start doing jumping jacks and taking something to be true just because it's printed in a magazine. Call me harsh but until something gets put through "trial by fire" it doesn't cut the mustard. 8)
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Re: Jan 08 Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan

Unread postby Nano » Sun 23 Dec 2007, 22:29:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I')t is an insult to Scientists who do *serious proof in the Laboratory* to lump this entertainment magazine as science. This is an entertainment magazine not a science journal. Furthermore (no insult to anybody) I consider it a bit "naive" to start doing jumping jacks and taking something to be true just because it's printed in a magazine. Call me harsh but until something gets put through "trial by fire" it doesn't cut the mustard. 8)


I wouldn't call you harsh, but you're not being fair. This Solar Grand Plan is not something you can test in the laboratory. But all the parts of this particular plan are technically and commercially viable, even now, if deployed in a large scale and protected against energy price collapses such as the '80s and '90s. Scientific American does a good job of presenting it (again, since this plan is pretty much almost 30 years old.)
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