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The bottom line

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

The bottom line

Unread postby machinsin » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 01:31:05

'Peak oil', 'GW', 'arable land', 'drinking water shortages', 'mass extincition', et al-- pick your poison. In the final analysis, all of these problems (and any other major problems that you can come up with) are merely symptomatic of the larger issue, which is: TOO MANY PEOPLE. Or, for the doubters: SOON TO BE TOO MANY PEOPLE, or even: SOME DAY TOO MANY PEOPLE.

No matter what you believe or what conclusions you've drawn or how you've arrived at those conclusions, the fact remains that the Earth cannot support perpetual human population growth/explosion. Because of this very simple but important fact, any attempts to 'solve' or 'mitigate' the issues of humanity that we presently face are just rearranging the deck chairs and will inevitably fail. The absolute best that we can hope for is to buy some time, but to what end and for what purpose?

The world needs population controls, and that is where the proverbial dog died. We can debate the numbers, but even that debate is in my mind wholly unnecessary-- because regardless of the numbers, we know that AT SOME POINT we can't continue to grow our population. Based on this logic, it is all risk and no reward to stay the course that we are on, even if those that say that the Earth can support another 2 billion, or 5 billion, or even 10 billion, are right. The very fact that there is ANY scientific evidence to support the validity of RIGHT NOW TOO MANY PEOPLE, or SOON TO BE TOO MANY PEOPLE should be enough for us to act now. Continued growth may be possible, for a time, or it may not be possible, but even if it is the liabilities and risk so far outweigh the benefits and rewards that it is preposterous to even consider such a notion. But yet, it is exactly what is happening.

The bottom line is that there is no peaceful solution that has any hope of success that is devoid of population control/restriction.

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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby americandream » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 01:33:25

Try telling that to the godfolks, most notably that woozer, the pope.
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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby machinsin » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 01:38:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')ry telling that to the godfolks, most notably that woozer, the pope.


That's what I'm doing right now. Besides, why would population controls/restrictions invalidate a relationship with God?

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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby Dry » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 02:25:54

The earth operates on a time scale measured in the millions/billions years. The earth does not care what happens- it is constantly changing and many things that have existed are no more and some day we to shall pass. population whatever.... relax
This forum facinates me.
problems can seen so pressing and important. Come back to the spot you are in right now in say 37 million years. Earth will be something else and it won't care about you.
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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby kpeavey » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 04:20:38

Historically, Humans lived their lives at the whims of mother nature. They suffered and died along with the rest of the beasts. Unfortunately the evolved a brain, giving them the ability to alter their environment, making their lives easier, more comfortable, less stressful. While this has helped a great number of people, maintaining the developed lifestyles is not possible over the next few decades.

The problem is not a regression in civilization. It lies in the increased suffering the current population must endure along the way. The next century will surely see disease, war, starvation, economic upheaval, billions of people dieing off, and all the mess and cleanup that goes along with it.

The other side of the hump will see a human population living as it did centuries ago. Wood fires, simple structures for homes, herbal remedies for illness, high infant mortality, short lifespans, small towns, local trade utilizing local resources, seasonal foods. The earth will reclaim the cities and highways. The humans will survive, at a much smaller population, to eke out an existence with whatever tools and resources are at their disposal. If things go well, and we are able to preserve a record of our history, and preserve the knowledge we have gained, there is still hope that the surviving future generations will learn from our mistakes and not repeat them.

-
In a few billion years, the sun will go nova, turning the earth into a cinder. To date, we have been able to send 2 spacecraft out of the solar system. While they were sent out to explore, eventually they will serve as a monument to our existence. Without the energy sources and refined metals, the future will be hard pressed to repeat what we have done. Can the future population pull together to get a few people off the planet and out into the heavens so our species does not go the way of the Dodo?
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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby bl00k » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 07:08:53

I agree with you. Overpopulation is the basis of all problems in my opinion. Nobody wants to name the problem until it bites us in the *ss. Nobody wants to hear it at this moment. You'll be ridiculed instantly if you bring it up. Out of sight, out of might.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('machinsin', '
')The absolute best that we can hope for is to buy some time, but to what end and for what purpose?

For the purpose of making our lives a little better/enjoyable/easier.
A kind of 'enjoying it while it lasts'-thing.
Or is that too egotistical?
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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby FoolYap » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 11:32:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dry', 'T')he earth operates on a time scale measured in the millions/billions years. The earth does not care what happens- it is constantly changing and many things that have existed are no more and some day we to shall pass. population whatever.... relax
This forum facinates me.
problems can seen so pressing and important. Come back to the spot you are in right now in say 37 million years. Earth will be something else and it won't care about you.


Which is why I don't worry about the Earth 37 million years from now. It is extremely unlikely (verging on impossible, I'd guess) that whatever we are doing now, will still be influencing it then.

However, I do worry about it in the next 37 years. It's fine to affect an academic aloofness from environmental damage, on the grounds that "this too shall pass". It's quite easy to do that from our still comfortable lives. Let's see how comfortable they are in a decade or three, shall we, and see if we're as blase about it?

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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 12:07:13

Not only too many of God's little children, machinsin, but also a shift from aging developed countries to younger less-developed countries, and all the challenges that presents to a smooth transition to a new equilibrium. No one wants their 'tribe' to die-off first or become out-numbered by the Jones. A clash of civilizations is as inevitable as peak oil even if we do not know what the result will look like. Welcome to the Monkey House! ; - )
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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby eastbay » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 12:24:11

kpeavey, the sun is too small to become a supernova.

Please cross that off your list of concerns.

Thank you.
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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby roccman » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 12:25:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('machinsin', ''')Peak oil', 'GW', 'arable land', 'drinking water shortages', 'mass extincition', et al-- pick your poison. In the final analysis, all of these problems (and any other major problems that you can come up with) are merely symptomatic of the larger issue, which is: TOO MANY PEOPLE. Or, for the doubters: SOON TO BE TOO MANY PEOPLE, or even: SOME DAY TOO MANY PEOPLE.

No matter what you believe or what conclusions you've drawn or how you've arrived at those conclusions, the fact remains that the Earth cannot support perpetual human population growth/explosion. Because of this very simple but important fact, any attempts to 'solve' or 'mitigate' the issues of humanity that we presently face are just rearranging the deck chairs and will inevitably fail. The absolute best that we can hope for is to buy some time, but to what end and for what purpose?

The world needs population controls, and that is where the proverbial dog died. We can debate the numbers, but even that debate is in my mind wholly unnecessary-- because regardless of the numbers, we know that AT SOME POINT we can't continue to grow our population. Based on this logic, it is all risk and no reward to stay the course that we are on, even if those that say that the Earth can support another 2 billion, or 5 billion, or even 10 billion, are right. The very fact that there is ANY scientific evidence to support the validity of RIGHT NOW TOO MANY PEOPLE, or SOON TO BE TOO MANY PEOPLE should be enough for us to act now. Continued growth may be possible, for a time, or it may not be possible, but even if it is the liabilities and risk so far outweigh the benefits and rewards that it is preposterous to even consider such a notion. But yet, it is exactly what is happening.

The bottom line is that there is no peaceful solution that has any hope of success that is devoid of population control/restriction.

machinsin


Nice first post! Welcome to PO.

Malthus wrote about this hundreds of years ago...no social contract.

Club of Rome wrote about this in the 70s....no social contract.

Today we write about this....no social contract.

Kissinger had it right in the 70s....80% of the world population must be culled.

The message on the Georgia Guidestone is clear...1/2 billion is the goal.

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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby dinopello » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 12:34:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kpeavey', 'H')istorically, Humans lived their lives at the whims of mother nature. They suffered and died along with the rest of the beasts. Unfortunately the evolved a brain, giving them the ability to alter their environment, making their lives easier, more comfortable, less stressful.


Oh please, humans aren't the only species that alters the environment. Beavers build dams, ants create enourmous structures, birds build nests etc etc. We are just really good at it. Every species will overpopulate and destroy the environment if there is nothing to check it - stick a bunch of rabbits in a cabbage patch - it'll be a big rabbit orgy and then starvation. Starvation will check humans if some little predator (eg. virus) doesn't get to us first.

We aren't fundamentally different than any other species except that we make up stories about what it all means and complain a lot.
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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby bonehead » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 12:39:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('machinsin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')ry telling that to the godfolks, most notably that woozer, the pope.


That's what I'm doing right now. Besides, why would population controls/restrictions invalidate a relationship with God?

machinsin



I don't know about other religions but in the bible God says "Be fruitful and multiply".He doesn't say be fruitful and multiply to about 6 billion or so and then stop.Population control is Reason applied to a problem.Most of religion relies on Faith,not Reason and the two will inevitably clash.
Gimme some demand destruction.
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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby Opies » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 16:43:08

to not mention that although we have never in history seen an example, most religious folk seem to believe in an interventionist god who couldn't possibly let anything bad happen to its greatest creation...
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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby Ferretlover » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 16:55:52

The bottom line is that the earth is "going to do us all in."
GW, global dimming, earthquakes, polar reversal, volcanoes-the planet is changing.
PO, financial markets, war, disease, et al are just the immediate (in human prospective) problems that pose a threat to human and all other species on this planet.
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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby gampy » Mon 17 Dec 2007, 18:18:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dry', 'T')he earth operates on a time scale measured in the millions/billions years. The earth does not care what happens- it is constantly changing and many things that have existed are no more and some day we to shall pass. population whatever.... relax
This forum facinates me.
problems can seen so pressing and important. Come back to the spot you are in right now in say 37 million years. Earth will be something else and it won't care about you.


Lol.

I had to quote you just because that is so true. In the grand scheme of things we are ants beneath the boots of the universe.

I feel better after meditating on that little fact. Thanks!
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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 04:33:05

Call me a heretic, but I think 3 billion could be sustainable?
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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 04:50:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'C')all me a heretic, but I think 3 billion could be sustainable?


That's hardly comforting. It's still a dangerous game of musical chairs. Not that the truth has to conform to our level of comfort.
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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 06:11:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'C')all me a heretic, but I think 3 billion could be sustainable?


That's hardly comforting. It's still a dangerous game of musical chairs. Not that the truth has to conform to our level of comfort.


This is slippery ground. I cannot really substantiate my claim, but I feel it is at least as valid as saying 500 million or one or two billion?

That would roughly bring us back to where we were in 1960. Still, historically high, but had we held that level then with current economic growth and prosperity there would be almost no poverty in the world today. Instead we have several billion living in poverty and a billion living in extreme poverty.

Not all our problems have been caused by population growth, but many of our current problems have been exacerbated by that population growth. I do not see any chance to address climate change and resource depletion without addressing population growth as well.

And you are right, our reality does not have to correspond to our perception of reality.
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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby Alcassin » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 07:02:15

I found somewhere this data (I think Club of Rome provided this or Wackernagel...)

4 billion - Eastern European level
3 billion - Western European level
2 billion - Nothern American level

But the number drops every year as economy grows ;) Because there is less to plunder and more to consume so every year of exceeding carrying capacity shrinks carrying capacity and the number drops again. It's like a spiral.

To keep current number we should use as much resources as average Cuban.
Peak oil is only an indication and a premise of limits to growth on a finite planet.
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Re: The bottom line

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 18 Dec 2007, 17:44:02

We could use less more efficiently, and more sustainably, like Amory Lovins suggests. Right now we're really setting the standard for profligate waste.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'E')very species will overpopulate and destroy the environment if there is nothing to check it - stick a bunch of rabbits in a cabbage patch - it'll be a big rabbit orgy and then starvation.


Are you suggesting that humans are no smarter than yeast? :razz:
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