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2008 oil projects coming on line...

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby Lifer » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 06:03:58

Can anyone point me to where I can find a list of oil that is expected to start flowing in 2008? Thanks.
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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby mkwin » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 06:59:45

http://www.odac-info.org/bulletin/docum ... eb2007.pdf

Some of the 2007 production has been delayed so it will hit in 2008 also. It seems very likely a new all time high producion figure will be seen in 2008 sometime.
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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby Micki » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 07:47:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ome of the 2007 production has been delayed so it will hit in 2008 also. It seems very likely a new all time high producion figure will be seen in 2008 sometime.


Guess that depends on depletion rates for fields like Cantarell next year.
Also, some 07 projects were delayed into 08. Same thing could of course happen 08, with some projects being pushed into 09.
And finally, without having read through the piece carefully, are all the new projects light sweet or will there be in increasing amount of heavy sour. This leads back to the Peak Net Energy discussions we had some time ago. i.e. the amount of oil can increase whilst net energy goes down.

Anyone have any educated opinions on the above?
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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby FrankRichards » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 10:34:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', '[')
Also, some 07 projects were delayed into 08. Same thing could of course happen 08, with some projects being pushed into 09.

Anyone have any educated opinions on the above?


After 30 years in engineering, I'd bet the mortgage that some of the '08 projects will go into '09. I'd bet the restaurant budget that at least one goes to '10.
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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby mkwin » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 11:02:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lso, some 07 projects were delayed into 08. Same thing could of course happen 08, with some projects being pushed into 09.
And finally, without having read through the piece carefully, are all the new projects light sweet or will there be in increasing amount of heavy sour. This leads back to the Peak Net Energy discussions we had some time ago. i.e. the amount of oil can increase whilst net energy goes down.


Some will undoubtedly be delayed into 2009. Another issue is the figures represent peak production and in some cases it will take up to 2 years or much more for this figure to be reached but I still think there is a lot of new good quality oil coming online in the next 12 months as the 2007 projects are finished and the flow rates begin to increase from them and the increased capacity continues into 2008/2009. It should be mentioned that the volumes predicted are unreliable after about 3 years out and they to tend to be too conservative and the actual planned volumes after three years tends to be far higher than predicted. See here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3236#more

A look at the project delivery list will show you a lot is coming from a variety of relatively immature oil regions like Angola and Brazil so the quality of much of the oil is likely to be light sweet.

If we do get a 2-3 million net increase and a fall in price to say $60-70 then it really could look bad for those banging the peak oil drum these last couple of months. It really would undermine the hard work in bringing the issue to public awareness and could lead to compliancy that’s my main fear.
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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby pawn » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 11:23:45

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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby vision-master » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 12:36:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f we do get a 2-3 million net increase and a fall in price to say $60-70 then it really could look bad for those banging the peak oil drum these last couple of months. It really would undermine the hard work in bringing the issue to public awareness and could lead to compliancy that’s my main fear.


Business as usual. Long live the SUV!

I'm praying oil production will flaten out for about 10 years before the big down slope. Can't it wait till I'm 65 anyhoo.
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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby clueless » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 13:11:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'h')ttp://www.odac-info.org/bulletin/documents/MegaProjects_Feb2007.pdf

Some of the 2007 production has been delayed so it will hit in 2008 also. It seems very likely a new all time high producion figure will be seen in 2008 sometime.


Make hay while the sun shines my grandaddy always told me...
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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby TheDude » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 17:51:54

Help us List Megaprojects - Oil Drum story regarding the Wiki page.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby peripato » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 18:33:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f we do get a 2-3 million net increase and a fall in price to say $60-70 then it really could look bad for those banging the peak oil drum these last couple of months.

Have you forgotten that decline from current fields in production is still running at 4-6 mbs pd p.a., while global demand is increasing by 1-2 mbs pd p.a? That's a new Saudi Arabia every other year or so that has to be found indefinitely. At best any sudden increase in production next year will just extend out the plateau, buying time for those who choose to prepare, while prolonging the peak party for those who don't.
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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 19:32:26

In other words....not as dire a forecast as often trumpeted on this forum. Hmmmm Whodathunk it? Me, perhaps? :lol:

Watch an economic collapse take the price down a notch too, depending on how accomdating OPEC is. With the global economy reeling, Saudi Arabia will probably attempt to hold prices to an affordable level. Prices should drop to the 55.00 or lower range, unless the dollar careens out of control. The risk premium of an Iran attack should also be priced out, reducing price per barrel. Hey--we may end up with an oil glut! Wouldn't that be the most counter intuitive fubar scenario?

In a fairer world we'd run out of it and all freeze to death in the dark for being so irresponsible, so unconscious and so ignorant of what cheap energy is doing to our environment.
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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby mkwin » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 19:47:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f we do get a 2-3 million net increase and a fall in price to say $60-70 then it really could look bad for those banging the peak oil drum these last couple of months.

Have you forgotten that decline from current fields in production is still running at 4-6 mbs pd p.a., while global demand is increasing by 1-2 mbs pd p.a? That's a new Saudi Arabia every other year or so that has to be found indefinitely. At best any sudden increase in production next year will just extend out the plateau, buying time for those who choose to prepare, while prolonging the peak party for those who don't.


If the decline rate is anywhere near that level, production would be down 4-8 million barrels by now as we have only been adding 2 million barrels in both 2005 and 2006. Looking at the production figures and assuming SA has not voluntarily cut production (which, given the recent increases in production, it seems they might have), we lost circa 2 million in 2005 and 2006.

Demand was expected to grow by 1.5mb in 2008 but that has been revised downwards to 500,000 barrels. A US and possibly global recession could even cause demand to actually decline in 2008.
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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby mkwin » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 19:55:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he risk premium of an Iran attack should also be priced out, reducing price per barrel.


Exactly, now the war with Iran seems to be off the agenda, the maybe $10-15 risk premium could weaken which will cause the speculative money to take profits. I would not be surprised if we touch $80 shortly. We are currently on a downward trend despite a big draw on inventories today, which wpuld normally be very bullish.
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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby peripato » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 20:20:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f we do get a 2-3 million net increase and a fall in price to say $60-70 then it really could look bad for those banging the peak oil drum these last couple of months.

Have you forgotten that decline from current fields in production is still running at 4-6 mbs pd p.a., while global demand is increasing by 1-2 mbs pd p.a? That's a new Saudi Arabia every other year or so that has to be found indefinitely. At best any sudden increase in production next year will just extend out the plateau, buying time for those who choose to prepare, while prolonging the peak party for those who don't.


If the decline rate is anywhere near that level, production would be down 4-8 million barrels by now as we have only been adding 2 million barrels in both 2005 and 2006. Looking at the production figures and assuming SA has not voluntarily cut production (which, given the recent increases in production, it seems they might have), we lost circa 2 million in 2005 and 2006.

Demand was expected to grow by 1.5mb in 2008 but that has been revised downwards to 500,000 barrels. A US and possibly global recession could even cause demand to actually decline in 2008.

Unconventional sources have been expanding over the past few years, and obviously enough new C+C production, workovers etc have also been available to mitigate the stagnating supply profile apparent since 2005. However the larger fields are, in the main, tiring now, and there, at some stage, will not be enough newer smaller fields, or unconventional production, to make up for those declines. As for demand, irrespective of what the actual figure might, nevertheless the need for oil is still expected to keep rising into 2008.
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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 21:50:18

If oil demand is expected to rise in 2008, why is the price being bid lower?
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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby billp » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 01:12:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xactly, now the war with Iran seems to be off the agenda,


We hope for peaceful settlement.

http://www.prosefights.org/thecanadian/ ... gotstarted
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Re: 2008 oil projects coming on line...

Unread postby peripato » Thu 06 Dec 2007, 02:45:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I')f oil demand is expected to rise in 2008, why is the price being bid lower?

The market is not perfect in its factoring of price when there are resource constraints. This shows up as price volatility because, when the demand on the system approaches the capacity of the system little things mean a lot. One geopolitical or weather related incident is all that's required to see the price skyrocketing again, or vice versa, if there is an easing of tension or lack of projected bad weather etc. In the past this was not such a issue when there existed an adequate buffer in supply. Perhaps it’s also seasonality? If you recall a similar thing happened this time last year, oil was sold off, but rebounded in the new year. If in 6 months the price of oil hasn't resumed its upwards movement I'll pay more attention to the volatility, or rather lack of it.
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