by mkwin » Wed 05 Dec 2007, 11:02:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lso, some 07 projects were delayed into 08. Same thing could of course happen 08, with some projects being pushed into 09.
And finally, without having read through the piece carefully, are all the new projects light sweet or will there be in increasing amount of heavy sour. This leads back to the Peak Net Energy discussions we had some time ago. i.e. the amount of oil can increase whilst net energy goes down.
Some will undoubtedly be delayed into 2009. Another issue is the figures represent peak production and in some cases it will take up to 2 years or much more for this figure to be reached but I still think there is a lot of new good quality oil coming online in the next 12 months as the 2007 projects are finished and the flow rates begin to increase from them and the increased capacity continues into 2008/2009. It should be mentioned that the volumes predicted are unreliable after about 3 years out and they to tend to be too conservative and the actual planned volumes after three years tends to be far higher than predicted. See here:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3236#more
A look at the project delivery list will show you a lot is coming from a variety of relatively immature oil regions like Angola and Brazil so the quality of much of the oil is likely to be light sweet.
If we do get a 2-3 million net increase and a fall in price to say $60-70 then it really could look bad for those banging the peak oil drum these last couple of months. It really would undermine the hard work in bringing the issue to public awareness and could lead to compliancy that’s my main fear.