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**Alert** 1/5 (9%) of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby zoidberg » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 00:02:04

A potential demonstration of systems disruption and Fourth Generation warfare. How would the US secure those many miles of pipelines if a few determined few groups of people kept consistently sabotaging them? Especially the bits in Canada, which actually is a sovereign state?

How many sabotage incidents would it take before economic activity really was damaged? How much economic damage would it take before locals started getting disgruntled? How much frustration could the authorities stand before they started looking amongst the locals for the culprits? And then you have a nice positive reinforcement cycle of violence. (I'm not too sure how to calculate that. It'd be interesting how to calculate that.)

This does sound like an honest accident though, maybe though the meme will spread....
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby Denny » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 01:27:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') read about the pipeline explosion this morning and started to think about our oil situation. I think some good has come out of this oil scare. I called up our oil dealer and we're going to be put on automatic fill up. We had to call every time the tank was down, but now I think I'd like to keep the tank full, just in case. The price is up. We are going to get around 100 gallons, but it's going to cost a lot more than last year.

So, even if this turns out to be nothing it got me thinking about our oil situation. If we have a full tank we can make it through the winter if we have the woodstove going most nights.


Revi, while your desire to keep a full tank is logical enough, if everybody does as you do, wiht your fuel oil tank and your automotive tanks that will take out a huge amount of available petroleum off the market and inventories and create an artificial shortage. I am not blamig you, but if your feelings are shared by many, look forward to spot shortages or worse.

I remember the gas crunch in the 60's and buddies of mine in Michigan waiting in line on a Sunday for an hour or more to top up their tanks, it became like an obsession with many. Think abut that in winter, waiting with your engine idling to stay warm, burning fuel in an effort to stay ahead of the game in the midst of a fuel shortage.
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 03:10:43

When this news popped up I was about three hours into a 16 hour work day. As I recall that first story was about two paragraphs. Little was known. I do think that it is fair to say that we all feared the worse.

It was similar to when the oil in wok for the stir fry chicken that night caught fire. Your heart jumped, you ran to the cabinet, got a lid, covered the fire and, yes, everything was fine but it does not mean that you did not see the possibility of greater destruction. It does not mean that things could not have been a lot worse.

In the absence of good information I can say, for myself, I'm a little jumpy. We are waiting for the other shoe to fall and not knowing if it will be Iran (did you hear that the Revolutionary Guard has been put in charge of Iran's Persian Gulf "fleet"), refinery outages (hey now China is defering maintanence) or the occasional pipeline explosion in the middle of the night.
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Re: *Alert* 1/5 of US Oil Imports Cut Off!

Unread postby IslandCrow » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 05:32:57

I admit that I was worried when I first read the news (and somewhat relieved when it did not turn out as bad as it first seemed), but please cut us some slack, with handling breaking news:

Note in the second post of this thread Drifter posted a comment from a spokesman from Enbridge. It looks like the company itself was spelling out the 'worse case'. I think some of the assumptions that were made were valid in light of the information the company itself was giving out.

I suppose I overreacted to the 'spokewomen for the county' and her 'it could burn for another three days'. I should have realised that this was a much less reliable source of information and so needed to be treated with a little more care.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne of the set of four pipelines will require repairs and regulator inspections, while the largest is "not likely" to start up any time soon, Larry Springer, a spokesman for Calgary, Alberta-based operator Enbridge Inc (ENB.TO), said on Thursday.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')pringer declined to give a specific timeframe for restarting the lines, but a spokeswoman for the county said the fire could burn for another three days.


[disclaimer]I am making no defense of some of the conspiracy theories expressed in the thread[/disclaimer]
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby dhfenton » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 11:47:45

What troubles me most is that the board is acting like Fox news. Find a headline you like and spin it, regardless of what the truth is. I'd just like people to investigate, analyze, and not jump the gun on every single oil related story that hits the news. Rational postings give credibility.
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 11:56:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', 'W')hat troubles me most is that the board is acting like Fox news. Find a headline you like and spin it, regardless of what the truth is. I'd just like people to investigate, analyze, and not jump the gun on every single oil related story that hits the news. Rational postings give credibility.


Fair enough... some posters will rebel against that expectations. I suspect other are like me and willing to try but aware of their... propensities to do otherwise. Some like Pup55 and DantesPeak are exemplars. Unless we want to start kicking people out for being jumpy I don't know what can be done except to consider the poster when decideing whether or not to click on the thread.
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby DantesPeak » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 12:02:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', ' ')Rational postings give credibility.


You still didn't provide any proof to your statement you made yesterday about pipeline availability and supply re-routing.

I posted articles supporting my position, but you only made unsubstantiated assertions without supplying any facts.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby KevO » Sun 02 Dec 2007, 10:09:21

It's going to be an interesting lead up to Crimbo.
$88 at the mo.
Will it go to $105 or $65 or stay around $90?
or will it go to $200

This pipeline fire will show by Weds whether it's hit supply.
OPEC will not increase production
Chavez wants to cut the oil off to the US
Iran is threatening to choke the supply to the world
The Kurdish rebels have taken the N Iraq oil fields
Turkey are maneuvering to invade Iraq (still) and get said rebels (and the oil?)


hmm
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby zoidberg » Mon 03 Dec 2007, 03:34:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'I')t's going to be an interesting lead up to Crimbo.
$88 at the mo.
Will it go to $105 or $65 or stay around $90?
or will it go to $200

This pipeline fire will show by Weds whether it's hit supply.
OPEC will not increase production
Chavez wants to cut the oil off to the US
Iran is threatening to choke the supply to the world
The Kurdish rebels have taken the N Iraq oil fields
Turkey are maneuvering to invade Iraq (still) and get said rebels (and the oil?)


hmm


I vote $65, a massive global recession and a crippling deflationary period is in the works. No credits going out, and theres not enough people working to buy things. Uncounted billions will turn out to be fraudulent, businesses invest and not get much return, economic activity will decline. Price wars will drive prices to the bottom.

Getting oil will not just be a matter of price, but of physical access as well. This will increase pressure on and within nation states, leading to war in some cases. A lot of other cases will result in nation states fragmenting into smaller entities, not all necessarily a nation state.
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby jbeckton » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 09:40:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'B')oys and Girls.
Be you American or European. Get dressed and go fill everything you've got.


The doomer frenzy did take off rather quickly!

:lol:
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