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**Alert** 1/5 (9%) of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 17:12:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rabbit', 'T')hat's not the way it works. Oil that can't be moved out from the well is essentially taken off the market. That increases the market forces on other suppliers that actually can deliver to the US.
The disruption they are referring to was at an oil pipeline not a well. It could be rerouted to some other destination within the network, or via some other mechanism, in order for some of that oil to get to other markets if the suppliers chose to go that route. I suppose they could just store the oil if worse came to worse and there were no other outlets for it, but considering the world uses ~80+ mbpd, and that takes off all 9% of US consumption, it would only be about 2% of world production. Maybe driving prices from $90/bbl to $92/bbl.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby WisJim » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 17:23:39

Enbridge has been having pipeline problems in Minnesota and Wisconsin all year:
http://www.reuters.com/article/governme ... 8020071129

Info about the proposed expansion of the Murphy refinery in Superior, with a map showing some of the pipeline involved in the Clearbrook fire:
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/09 ... l_seek.php

Another recent Reuters story:
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCr ... SN29397510
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby Rabbit » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 17:24:56

Yes I understand that, but without the pipeline, one or more wells won't be able to pump oil much longer. All of the major lines moving oil from north to south are at or near capacity. Thus there is no other practical route at this time. They have already been planning additional lines as the current lines are maxed out, even at the higher pressures they have been using lately.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he disruption they are referring to was at an oil pipeline not a well.
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 17:40:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rabbit', 'Y')es I understand that, but without the pipeline, one or more wells won't be able to pump oil much longer.
Only if there is no way to store the oil on site.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rabbit', 'A')ll of the major lines moving oil from north to south are at or near capacity. Thus there is no other practical route at this time. They have already been planning additional lines as the current lines are maxed out, even at the higher pressures they have been using lately.
Do you have any links about what you're describing?
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 18:25:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', 'I')'ve been following the posts on this article, and quite frankly, I can't believe how quickly you guys have tried to play a fairly minor incident into an oil supply disaster. Did any of you really read the article. You had one pipeline damaged, and three still intact. Of the three shut down temporarily, two went back online very quickly, and the third is probably back on line already too. And 1/9 of the US supply was a figure that applied only for a few hours, and you guys are trying to play in as a major disruption. 1/9 annually would be a big deal. 1/9 divided by 365 (one days supply) is about 3/10 of a percent. That's not a major disruption, that's blip on the radar. And, considering that it will be made up as oil is re-routed through the three remaining pipelines, the real annual effect is zero percent for all intents and purposes.

I joined this forum a few years back, and at first I thought the posts where very rational; but lately, I find that the doomers are getting very impatient and tend to jump on any little incident as proof of the end. The more irrational rants about oil supply problems I hear, the less credibility I think this forum has. Maybe its time to reel it in a bit, and really analyze the big picture before we start speaking of the end times. It would certainly lend more credibility to the Peak Oil argument.


Gas prices dropped today. I'm losing all my credibility by listening to you yahoo's on this forum. PANIC is all ye know..........
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby DantesPeak » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 18:28:16

Image
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby Rabbit » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 18:34:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')nly if there is no way to store the oil on site.


How much are they going to be able to hold on site or in the network? Maybe a few days or a week would be my guess.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o you have any links about what you're describing?


Yes...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071129/bs_ ... ge_fire_dc

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') Capacity on the pipeline is growing tight due to rising oil production in Alberta and Enbridge has been working to expand the pipeline.

"The timing is pretty bad. We are coming to the strongest demand period for crude with the approach of the Northern winter," said Mark Pervan, analyst at ANZ Bank.
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 18:44:25

Do you peeps only believe what you want? It's a non-event, no biggie, a blip on the radar screen, move on..................
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby Sys1 » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 19:09:52

Oh my god, i worked all day long, i'm tired, and just read the whole thread. That's the most ridiculous thing i've ever seen over there. Hopefully, this kind of thread didn't exist when i visited this site for the first time, or i could be now owning a SUV and many debts.

Please be prudent before posting something supposed to prove imminent apocalypse!
Yes, you will have your apocalypse movie on big 3d screen soon staring you in mad max, but not today!
Good night, i got to sleep...
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby Micki » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 19:19:51

Cut the dommers some slack. They reacted no differently from the traders who for a while drove up oil price $5.
And the news sure sounded bad at first.
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby frankthetank » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 19:29:03

Is this tar sands oil?
lawns should be outlawed.
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby DantesPeak » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 20:23:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'I')s this tar sands oil?


Yes, mostly.

Also, if you look closely at the pipeline system above, some of the oil coming down from Canada to Minnesota is sent back to Canada towards Montreal along the northside of the Great Lakes. I am not sure if it refined or otherwise processed before going back to Canada, but in the extreme northern Midwest US there are 'upgrading' facilities that improve the quality of tar sands oil before it is sent further along.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') Line 1 ships around 236,000 b/d of natural gas liquids, refined products and synthetic crude, while Line 2 carries around 409,000 b/d of condensate, synthetic, light and medium crude grades. Line 4 is the biggest of the pipelines in the Enbridge system, with a capacity to ship up to 669,000 b/d of heavy crude.

The crude that moves through the Enbridge lines primarily remains in the northern Midwest, according to a market source. About 125,000 b/d goes to Cushing, Oklahoma--home of the NYMEX delivery point--on the Enbridge system and about 60,000 b/d on the Pegasus line, which is owned by ExxonMobil. The
impact on Cushing, therefore, should be minimal.


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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby JohnLudi » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 20:53:45

Someone asked earlier in this thread what gas prices where like in Chicago. The gas station across the street from where I catch the bus was $3.39 for regular unleaded.

That is not all that unusual though, for recent prices...we have a relatively large tax on gas in the city.
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 21:07:11

This pipe moves $5.9 million worth of oil per hour. It will get fixed - and real quick!
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby green_achers » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 21:26:04

When I read the first page of this thread this morning, I was getting ready for a out of town trip. My thought was, this probably isn't the event they're projecting, but why not treat it like a drill?

So I went into town and topped off the truck, and filled a couple of gas cans while I was at it. I have a gas-powered tractor, so it's not that unusual for me, I just thought I would want to be holding as a bit more gas if prices spike in the next few days.
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 21:47:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'O')h my god, i worked all day long, i'm tired, and just read the whole thread. That's the most ridiculous thing i've ever seen over there. Hopefully, this kind of thread didn't exist when i visited this site for the first time, or i could be now owning a SUV and many debts.

Please be prudent before posting something supposed to prove imminent apocalypse!
Yes, you will have your apocalypse movie on big 3d screen soon staring you in mad max, but not today!
Good night, i got to sleep...


But we like alarm!

Image

This is tops for ridiculous? I still think it was pretty sober. No one talked about MREs or BOBs or "maxed out their credit cards on booze and hookers - again."
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby steam_cannon » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 22:05:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', 'I') joined this forum a few years back, and at first I thought the posts where very rational; but lately, I find that the doomers are getting very impatient and tend to jump on any little incident as proof of the end...
Yeah, it is amusing. But it's some sensational sounding breaking news, so of course there is going to be a discussion on the implications and a lot of people jumping the gun before seeing what all the facts are. That's what people normally do, not just people here.

But I do think the poster of this thread should add a "Note:" to his first post that much of the loss of supply capacity is greatly recovered already and repairs are underway on the damaged lines. Understandably, when 9% of supply for the country had to be shut off for a few hours, that's going to rile a lot of peakle up. :-D

--------------------------------------------------------------------

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'A') day in the life of PeakOil devotee...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') regularly call on my "Mother" and her ample bosom
A little constructive criticism "yesplease", that pstarr quote looks like he's talking about "Mother Earth". But it makes you look a little creepy how you are using it. Like you think a lot about pstarr's Mom... :lol:
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby JJ » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 22:39:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', 'I') joined this forum a few years back, and at first I thought the posts where very rational; but lately, I find that the doomers are getting very impatient and tend to jump on any little incident as proof of the end...
Yeah, it is amusing. But it's some sensational sounding breaking news, so of course there is going to be a discussion on the implications and a lot of people jumping the gun before seeing what all the facts are. That's what people normally do, not just people here.

But I do think the poster of this thread should add a "Note:" to his first post that much of the loss of supply capacity is greatly recovered already and repairs are underway on the damaged lines. Understandably, when 9% of supply for the country had to be shut off for a few hours, that's going to rile a lot of peakle up. :-D

--------------------------------------------------------------------

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'A') day in the life of PeakOil devotee...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') regularly call on my "Mother" and her ample bosom
A little constructive criticism "yesplease", that pstarr quote looks like he's talking about "Mother Earth". But it makes you look a little creepy how you are using it. Like you think a lot about pstarr's Mom... :lol:



haha read this thread this morning; said to wifey well I'm gonna go get gas just in case, took both vehicles down and filled them and a jerry can; the guy at the gas station, upon hearing of the pipeline problem, started screaming at me and told me "I was full of sh%t", don't I every read anything thats not depressing?". Go figure.
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby Revi » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 23:35:55

I just found this on the Archdruid Report. I have to agree with Greer. Even if this blown pipeline scare turns out to be nothing, it's time to get ready. It's coming soon. It's lifeboat time:

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/
Last edited by Revi on Thu 29 Nov 2007, 23:56:52, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: **Alert** 9% of All US Oil Cut Off After Explosion!

Unread postby Revi » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 23:36:48

I read about the pipeline explosion this morning and started to think about our oil situation. I think some good has come out of this oil scare. I called up our oil dealer and we're going to be put on automatic fill up. We had to call every time the tank was down, but now I think I'd like to keep the tank full, just in case. The price is up. We are going to get around 100 gallons, but it's going to cost a lot more than last year.

So, even if this turns out to be nothing it got me thinking about our oil situation. If we have a full tank we can make it through the winter if we have the woodstove going most nights.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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