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Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Lighthouse » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 22:29:44

Don't take me wrong, I know oil is a finite resource and will peak, or has already and eventually will run out at some stage.

But is that really that bad? Reading the posts in this forum leave the impression that we are all so doomed. Most of us will die in the post peak period.

I refuse to follow this notion. I'm always sceptical if someone tells me there is no solution to a problem and therefore it does not make sense to look for one. I always amused by people telling me why something does not work. They usually can't tell what would work. I know it is much easier that way. No need to work on a solution ...

First question: Is there a problem we experience now, which is directly related to peak oil?

(More questions will follow as this thread goes along....)
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 22:42:46

Here we have again the basic misunderstanding. :)


Many of us here believe there are plenty of "solutions" to peak oil. The problem many of us see is that these solutions are not being implemented fast enough or on a large enough scale to really mitigate the problem.


Reference: The Hirsch Report
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby RdSnt » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 22:45:43

I appreciate that some people a working from a positive position, but Peak Oil represents something much worse than just an increasing limited supply of oil.
Don't get me wrong, there are solutions, just not for very many people.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'D')on't take me wrong, I know oil is a finite resource and will peak, or has already and eventually will run out at some stage.

But is that really that bad? Reading the posts in this forum leave the impression that we are all so doomed. Most of us will die in the post peak period.

I refuse to follow this notion. I'm always sceptical if someone tells me there is no solution to a problem and therefore it does not make sense to look for one. I always amused by people telling me why something does not work. They usually can't tell what would work. I know it is much easier that way. No need to work on a solution ...

First question: Is there a problem we experience now, which is directly related to peak oil?

(More questions will follow as this thread goes along....)
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby WhatMeWorry » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 22:45:43

Be prepared for Doomers on Parade, coming at you from every angle.

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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Bas » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 22:47:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WhatMeWorry', 'B')e prepared for Doomers on Parade, coming at you from every angle.

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Doomers only have one angle.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Narz » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 22:52:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'F')irst question: Is there a problem we experience now, which is directly related to peak oil?

Nothing so far, save the stress of thinking about it.

I keep wondering when undeniable effects will begin to descend makes me wonder whether we'll eventually hit a tipping point where things will start to happen very quickly or whether perhaps the decline will be slower than folks here want to admit.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Heineken » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 22:52:32

Your thinking is too black-and-white, Lighthouse.

We aren't ALL doomed. Not even most hard-core doomers believe that.

Of course there are solutions---partial solutions. It's very unlikely the solutions will be inclusive enough or revolutionary enough to maintain the population at its current bloated level, living in its current bloated way. The population has reached its current level almost entirely as a result of the cheap-energy era, which is now clearly reaching its end.

The partial solutions we discuss all the time here, as on the Planning for the Future forum.

It is highly unlikely that there will ever again be an energy bonanza like the fossil-fuel one. Ever. It was a one-time deal. It's ending and the signs are all around us.

For many people---like truckers struggling to make ends meet---there are big problems NOW. Here in the US, the average living standard, long the envy of the world, is falling rather rapidly. But it's just the start. We're at the peak, not really into the downslope.

We peakers have been right all along, and not just about Peak Oil. That's what scares me.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby RdSnt » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 23:04:03

Just wait till the Discovery channel does a special on Malthus. He's going to beat Nostradamus into the ground. I see a Doomer Death Match brewing :twisted:
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Lighthouse » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 23:06:27

I asked Is there a problem we experience now, which is directly related to peak oil?

And the answer is: no

???


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '.').. It's very unlikely the solutions will be inclusive enough or revolutionary enough to maintain the population at its current bloated level, living in its current bloated way...


Is overpopulation really a peakoil problem?

35 years ago the world was about to turn to 4 bill humans, I was 10 years old, my teacher showed us photos and a 8mm film of african children with bloated bellies and told us that 40% of the world's population goes to bed hungry. That was so impressive that I could not sleep for weeks.

The world could not sustain the human population back then. Not much changed in the last 35 years. Except we now have the excuse of peakoil....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'F')or many people---like truckers struggling to make ends meet---there are big problems NOW. Here in the US, the average living standard, long the envy of the world, is falling rather rapidly.


Truckers, farmers, etc are struggling for various reasons as long as I can think.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Colorado-Valley » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 23:54:59

Well, I personally don't appreciate having to pay the extra $2,000 a year to the oil companies that depletion has cost me so far.

My feeling is that Exxon already has enough money.


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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Lighthouse » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 00:03:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'W')ell, I personally don't appreciate having to pay the extra $2,000 a year to the oil companies that depletion has cost me so far.

My feeling is that Exxon already has enough money.


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So?

Don't buy. There are already cheaper alternatives.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 00:23:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'D')on't take me wrong, I know oil is a finite resource and will peak, or has already and eventually will run out at some stage.

But is that really that bad? Reading the posts in this forum leave the impression that we are all so doomed. Most of us will die in the post peak period.


Its been YEARS since oil peaked. How have things been for you? For awhile I was counting on it at least cutting down traffic jams, but to date I've been disappointed.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby americandream » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 00:31:03

Unfortunately, you fail to see the big picture Lighthouse and are judging narrow events rather than considering the big picture.

What is the big picture...we have a system founded on endless growth, premised on the notion that the planet's store of resources can also be utilised on an infinite basis simply by tweaking technology and finally, seen as the only panacea for the "ills" of steady state "cultures' now decreasingly evident across the planet, as the bulk of the population rushes to embrace this model.

At the very least, there is a wilful blindness amongst those of our leaders who fail to see the absurdity in this style of development/acculturisation.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby steam_cannon » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 01:20:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'I') keep wondering when undeniable effects will begin to descend makes me wonder whether we'll eventually hit a tipping point where things will start to happen very quickly or whether perhaps the decline will be slower than folks here want to admit.
Howdy Narz :-D

To answer that question here are a few clips from the front pages of two Sunday edition newspapers, from this week.

Image
Image
Image

What's happening today is easy to see and it's developing fast enough for me. I think the only way a person could miss what's going on is if they lived on a mountain in the middle of nowhere. :roll: In the towns around me, all I have to do is go for ride I see unsold real estate everywhere that still there from last year. And just look at the unpainted crumbling bridges. Are we a strong industrial nation building expensive steel bridges anymore or are we just letting our infrastructure crumble? And how many people you know are out of a job this holiday season...

Problems like gas prices and the housing crisis are exactly what we have seen coming down the pipe. I've told family this is exactly what would be happening, I showed them graphs, studies... But years ago it was impossible for the normal lumpkins to believe there could be headlines like this weeks.

I think people have trouble imagining that the bill will eventually come in or that there could be limits to growth like in housing. Classically in human history, people should have seen that they were overpopulating their little lands. But when because of overpopulation famine came, they inevitably would blame their land hording neighbors. And then after war and famine it would all start again. Historically, it seems to be human nature to be oblivious to what's coming.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Heineken » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 01:43:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'I') asked Is there a problem we experience now, which is directly related to peak oil?

And the answer is: no

???


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '.').. It's very unlikely the solutions will be inclusive enough or revolutionary enough to maintain the population at its current bloated level, living in its current bloated way...


Is overpopulation really a peakoil problem?

35 years ago the world was about to turn to 4 bill humans, I was 10 years old, my teacher showed us photos and a 8mm film of african children with bloated bellies and told us that 40% of the world's population goes to bed hungry. That was so impressive that I could not sleep for weeks.

The world could not sustain the human population back then. Not much changed in the last 35 years. Except we now have the excuse of peakoil....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'F')or many people---like truckers struggling to make ends meet---there are big problems NOW. Here in the US, the average living standard, long the envy of the world, is falling rather rapidly.


Truckers, farmers, etc are struggling for various reasons as long as I can think.


I think a falling standard of living in the US is a strong example of a problem NOW. Food and fuel and materials costs are soaring and many people are hurting. NOW.

The US economy is in serious trouble. Housing is in trouble. Health care is in trouble. NOW. Tomorrow, worse.

Actually, independent truckers do very well when fuel costs are low; they don't struggle at all. Today they're struggling. Tomorrow they'll be out of business, and then we have a very big problem indeed, because this country's supply lines depend almost entirely on mass trucking. The entire country is built around them, down to the last detail. Trillions of dollars of rigid infrastructure.

As for overpopulation, it doesn't matter what teachers taught yesterday or teach today. It doesn't matter what you or I think, for that matter. The carrying capacity is the carrying capacity. It exists as fact, independent of human perceptions of it. We've artificially and temporarily outstripped it by exploiting the lode of ancient sunlight. And we've permanently reduced it by damaging the Earth. So we're in for a harsh awakening, followed by lot of going to sleep.

I don't dispute that the population arguments of Ehrlich et al. were wrong as to timing. But timing is a detail. The basic argument is absolutely on target.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Lighthouse » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 02:13:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', 'I')ts been YEARS since oil peaked. How have things been for you? For awhile I was counting on it at least cutting down traffic jams, but to date I've been disappointed.


Thanks for asking The last 5 years were the best of my life! I made more money than in the 40 years before.

The last year or so I've tried to save the world through permaculture. Needless to say that it did not work out for the world ...

For the traffic jams ...
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Colorado-Valley » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 02:18:06

Lighthouse, you're probably one of the world's wealthy people, and so high energy prices don't bother you.

So I you're right; it's not a problem.


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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Lighthouse » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 02:23:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') think a falling standard of living in the US is a strong example of a problem NOW. Food and fuel and materials costs are soaring and many people are hurting. NOW.


Heineken, I don't think you believe the inflation in the US is based on Peak oil?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')he US economy is in serious trouble. Housing is in trouble. Health care is in trouble. NOW. Tomorrow, worse.


Yes, send a thank you note to your current administration.
We in Australia are on top of the peak of the boom. Germany is doing great.

What has this to do with peak oil?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'A')ctually, independent truckers do very well when fuel costs are low; they don't struggle at all. Today they're struggling. Tomorrow they'll be out of business, and then we have a very big problem indeed, because this country's supply lines depend almost entirely on mass trucking. The entire country is built around them, down to the last detail. Trillions of dollars of rigid infrastructure.


Don't you think that's a bit simplified.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'A')s for overpopulation, it doesn't matter what teachers taught yesterday or teach today. It doesn't matter what you or I think, for that matter. The carrying capacity is the carrying capacity. It exists as fact, independent of human perceptions of it. We've artificially and temporarily outstripped it by exploiting the lode of ancient sunlight. And we've permanently reduced it by damaging the Earth. So we're in for a harsh awakening, followed by lot of going to sleep.

I don't dispute that the population arguments of Ehrlich et al. were wrong as to timing. But timing is a detail. The basic argument is absolutely on target.


You honestly believe that we have reached carrying capacity of this planet? On what data are you basing this assumption.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 02:48:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', ' ')Is overpopulation really a peakoil problem?

35 years ago the world was about to turn to 4 bill humans, I was 10 years old, my teacher showed us photos and a 8mm film of african children with bloated bellies and told us that 40% of the world's population goes to bed hungry. That was so impressive that I could not sleep for weeks.

The world could not sustain the human population back then. Not much changed in the last 35 years. Except we now have the excuse of peakoil....


No, not excuse. Trigger. We may very well have the trigger for the die-off via peak oil if climate change doesn't beat it to the punch.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby roccman » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 02:55:52

And my guess is climate change is far and away "the" issue and will become more of an issue as pollution created by PO is diminished and accelerated GW kicks in...think Permian Extinction Event.
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