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Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Doly » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 08:03:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', '
')Lets assume for a moment there were no peak oil. Population overshoot would still become a massive problem?


Yes, assuming that there is a population overshoot.

Population growth has been declining steadily for many years now. Under current projections (that don't assume any kind of resource scarcity), it's expected to peak in 20-30 years.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby roccman » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 09:49:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'L')ighthouse,

You need to read Overshoot: The Ecological Basis for Revolutionary Change by William Catton.

You don't have a clue about what you are talking about.

Here are some links to some excerpts:

Dependence on Phantom Carrying Capacity

Industrialization: Prelude to Collapse

Especially read this one:

The Problem of Denial of Overshoot


I admitted already that I was wrong.

Now leave me alone I will be totally drunk at least for the next three weeks ....


Yep that's the ticket...post disinformation...admit later that you were wrong...then get drunk....

Sounds like the CNN business plan...

And you have been a member since 06 LH...???

What have you done since that time...obviously no reading on the critical issues of the day...

Instead you want to play "Let's switch positions" ...

Bwhahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahah!!!
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby roccman » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 09:52:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')
Yes, assuming that there is a population overshoot.


Huh?

Where have you been ...we are currently in overshoot!
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 10:05:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'L')ighthouse, . . .

You don't have a clue about what you are talking about.]


This is exactly the case.

Lighthouse is a very intelligent person and I respect him, but he is uninformed on this particular subject, as some of his comments demonstrate.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 10:09:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')he dignity of man is not realized in a packed and dirty room.
Beautiful words Heineken.


I appreciate that, steam. This is a matter I feel very, very strongly about. More strongly than about anything else, actually.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 10:20:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'W')eekly food consumption

USA

Image

Chad

Image

Ok, I spent this morning doing some research on overpopulation.

I wanted to be a cornucopian! Now I'm on my way to become a doomer.

The rest of the day you can find me at the bar ...


Lighthouse: Congratulations on your conversion. It takes a man to admit he's on the wrong track. My respect for you grows.

About those pics: It's true that many Americans have abundant food, but it isn't healthy food. In the US photo I see pictures not of real food but of incipient myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, diabetes, cancer, obesity . . . .

Also, the notions the rest of the world has about US lifestyles are often erroneous. There is a great deal of poverty and privation here. It doesn't make it into the magazine spreads and TV shows, though. It's hidden under the bridges and between the rows of boxcars. The US is in transition into a second-world type of country, with a relatively small upper class and a huge and growing underclass. Go into any hospital emergency room and you will see them huddled there, desperately poor, sick, and ignorant. Their numbers will swell enormously when recession hits.

Most people in the middle class here live paycheck to paycheck. They have big debts and no savings. They're on the edge, and we know which way that edge is tilted.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby roccman » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 11:25:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Lighthouse is a very intelligent person and I respect him, but he is uninformed on this particular subject, as some of his comments demonstrate.


Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

I don't think he is very intelligent at all.

clueless on 911

clueless on overshoot

clueless on "alternatives" not saving the day...

What is so intelligent about what Lighthouse posts?

He screams of denial.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 11:39:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')
I don't think he is very intelligent at all.



You gotta admit, anyone who can rethink there position is already one step farther down the road of enlightenment though?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')clueless on 911


What...you didn't see the video's of them big planes crashing into the buildings?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')clueless on overshoot


You mean how our population is going to stabilize sometime in the next 20-30 years or so, or now, or somewhere in between? And...ummm...maybe we aren't?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')clueless on "alternatives" not saving the day...


Because they've already started, and it makes you cranky?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')
What is so intelligent about what Lighthouse posts?

He screams of denial.

Denial of what? Refusing to pretend he knew the electrical grids were going to go down this summer, and suggesting that people charge up credit cards to escape this summers collapse? Which...oops....never happened?

Better luck for next summer there Roc?
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 11:52:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'S')till sober. Busy reading.

One more question:

Lets assume for a moment there were no peak oil. Population overshoot would still become a massive problem?


The sequel to overshoot is always a die-off. Liebig's Law of the Minimum (see my stickied thread in Environment) sets the carrying capacity. Whatever is the least abundant necessity relative to per capita requirements is the limiting factor for any given species.

Currently, energy via peak oil is the #1 candidate to set this limit and trigger the die-off.

How fast oil declines will determine the speed of the onset.

So yes, even if oil never peaks, there will be a die-off due to overshoot.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 12:01:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', ' ')Yes, assuming that there is a population overshoot.


The Problem of Denial of Overshoot

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')opulation growth has been declining steadily for many years now. Under current projections (that don't assume any kind of resource scarcity), it's expected to peak in 20-30 years.


The fertility rate has been declining due to a continued rise in the standard of living over the last 40 years via fossil fuels and Demographic Transition.

Those projections are based upon a continued rise in the standard of living in developing countries via Demographic Transition.

With peak oil, what are the chances the SOL is going to continue to rise anywhere, much less in the poor developing countries?
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 12:05:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', ' ')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')clueless on overshoot


You mean how our population is going to stabilize sometime in the next 20-30 years or so, or now, or somewhere in between? And...ummm...maybe we aren't?


Stabilization at 9.1 billion is 6 billion beyond estimated carrying capacity.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby whereagles » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 12:56:40

I find a 3 billion capacity rather pessimistic... but ok, I'm no expert.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby roccman » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 13:01:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', ' ')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')clueless on overshoot


You mean how our population is going to stabilize sometime in the next 20-30 years or so, or now, or somewhere in between? And...ummm...maybe we aren't?


Stabilization at 9.1 billion is 6 billion beyond estimated carrying capacity.


Monte you da man!!!

Bring the big hammer down!!!
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 13:12:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whereagles', 'I') find a 3 billion capacity rather pessimistic... but ok, I'm no expert.


Actually, it is optimistic. It assumes we restore the damage to carrying capacity we have caused. Otherwise, it is around 1 billion.

Read the studies. Look at the metrics used and the lifestyles considered.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby steam_cannon » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 16:48:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'O')ne more question:

Lets assume for a moment there were no peak oil. Population overshoot would still become a massive problem?
Good question, the answer is: Yes

As it's often mentioned on this site, we are seeing "peak everything". Metals, food production, and that big dog oil.

I'm simplifying here but, in past human history food production / food gathering would peak and famines would hit. Just like with every other creature. It happens with yeast, deer and people too... Europeans traditionally dealt with these periodic famines by declaring war on their neighbors. That way, as they lost lives the famine would be over and if they won land the famine would be over. Sort of a grim win win solution. And sometimes plagues would wipe out population instead of a famine.

Why does oil matter? We boosted our diets and lives with the energy in oil using all sorts of cool means (cheap cars, fertilizers, harvesters, refrigerators, drying ovens, packaging...). And once the oil can't keep up with demand, it's very hard to replace it. Other countries with oil shortages haven't been able to.

Also, though it's unlikely "if" there is enough material that can be mined easily to make battery cars for everyone, first everyone has to lose their car. If roads get replaced with canals, everyone has to move. If natural gas fertilizers get replaced with humanure, it's going to suck bringing buckets of this stuff to farm fields. So even if we can find ways to live without oil, this transition logically will involve a great deal of hardship.

Regarding metals...
As the price of oil goes up the cost of mining metals follows. This is for several reasons. First being mining and refining metals is very energy intensive. Second metals have been getting mined out just like petroleum. Some metals like Manganese are well past peak production. And for most metals the price is skyrocketing.

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image

U.S. Manganese Production
Image

U.S. Arsenic Production
Image

Peak Coal Production (world trends)
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/w ... _peak.html
The US has more coal left then most countries, but there are limits to how much this will help. Plus increased mining costs and deeper coal deposits will mean the trend of rising coal prices will continue.

Peak Copper
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/wat ... 21605.html

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Peak Oil is just the big dog. But with 6 billion people on the planet everything is peaking. The punch bowl at the party is running low and so are the pretzels and dip.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby steam_cannon » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 17:13:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')Lighthouse...

...clueless on overshoot...

...clueless on "alternatives" not saving the day...

...He screams of denial.
But I think that describes most people. So he's human and he's been wrong about things before. Me too. As long as he isn't too rude and capable of a spirited debate with good questions, then I don't mind.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby steam_cannon » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 17:31:33

USGS Metals Mining Statistics
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('investmentrarities.com', '
')Image
Image
http://www.investmentrarities.com/01-04-05.html

The metals problem in interesting. For example silver gets used up in industrial processes, such as in catalysts eroded away in the production of plastics. And in just a few generations we will have diluted into oblivion much of the earths silver. Sure with a massive drop in population there will be less need for metals. But none the less, it's interesting to think about.

Aluminum, well we can produce aluminum till we're blue in the face, as long as we have the power to mine and refine it. But the metals problem, like peak oil is a good example of what overshoot really means. Huge populations eat up resources fast.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby yeahbut » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 18:47:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')
Yep that's the ticket...post disinformation...admit later that you were wrong...then get drunk....

Sounds like the CNN business plan...

And you have been a member since 06 LH...???

What have you done since that time...obviously no reading on the critical issues of the day...

Instead you want to play "Let's switch positions" ...

Bwhahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahah!!!


Pretty ugly Rocc. For 'post disinformation', how about 'try to figure out in a public forum whether PO is as terrible as they say or not'. That's a fine thing to want to do, and there's nothing bad about it. It's provoked a good, educational discussion which surely must be one of the aims of this website. There are always new people coming here and threads preaching to the converted won't help them much. There wouldn't be much in the way of vital, stimulating threads without question and dissent anyway. It's to be encouraged, not shat on.
It was also a very brave thing of LH to do, given the unpleasant hostility of some members.
And as for being able to take on new ideas and alter one's outlook, the ego of your average human(never mind the average resident of PO.com!) is simply unable to cope with that. LH is to be commended for that, not mocked. If only that capacity existed in more people, we surely wouldn't have made half as much of a mess of the world.

And as for this

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh...

LH meet Monte...

Nice!!


and this

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')

Monte you da man!!!

Bring the big hammer down!!!


leave it out, mate. You sound like the weedy little guy urging on his jock buddy from the sidelines as he pounds on some poor kid. Put your pom-poms away, sunshine.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Narz » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 19:39:15

steam_cannon, thanks for your contributions to this thread. I'm going to link this to some peeps on another forum.
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Narz » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 19:49:23

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthrea ... ost6199969
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
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