[Armageddon]

Demand can outstrip supply, it will result in higher prices and shortages. . Consumption can't outstrip supply ( unless you have stockpiles to draw from ). Demand outstripping supply simply means there are more people wanting something than there is of that particular item. This happens every christmas for the gadget of the year.

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'W')ell demand can't exceed supply in the long term. But demand has exceeded supply for the last year or so, causing inventories worldwide to run down. What will happen is that we will reach a point where demand has overshot supply, and we could get something like a forced 5% drop in demand almost overnight.

[Revi]

I checked out Matt Simmons on the supply. He is scary as always, but very informative. We saw him at the screening of End of Suburbia in Rockland, Maine a couple of years ago. He was deadpan, but kept insisting that we needed to inventory the world's remaining oil and get a plan B. He understands what's going on...

Check out this piece on the sinking dollar. Roberts is great. He talks about the run up in the price of oil, and the fact that there isn't enough being discovered. He says buy agricultural stocks. I am thinking that the next thing I'm getting is a bit of agricultural land. (or a piece of good garden soil at least)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXhqYyOdBXo

[Revi]

Oil prices are at an all time high because everybody wants it, and there's not enough around. The dollar tanking doesn't help either.

[bonehead]

Don't forget about one of the seven deadlies,Greed.I'm sure there's plenty of that going on too.It's human nature,after all..............

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'W')ell demand can't exceed supply in the long term. But demand has exceeded supply for the last year or so, causing inventories worldwide to run down. What will happen is that we will reach a point where demand has overshot supply, and we could get something like a forced 5% drop in demand almost overnight.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '
') Even a sudden 10% drop in US oil consumption would, however, only represent a drop of consumption of 2 million barrels or a little over 2% of global consumption. Hardly enough to bring the declining supply and demand back in line.

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'W')ell demand can't exceed supply in the long term. But demand has exceeded supply for the last year or so, causing inventories worldwide to run down. What will happen is that we will reach a point where demand has overshot supply, and we could get something like a forced 5% drop in demand almost overnight.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')Any guess to when the US runs below MOL ?

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')Opec is not conspiracy, it's a cartel. Refiner's cooperating to keep their margins thin, for political reasons--that's cartel policy too. Gasoline price is based on a number of factors--not just geological depletion. It's an election year, big Oil refiners are going to keep gasoline prices as low as they can.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')Opec is not conspiracy, it's a cartel. Refiner's cooperating to keep their margins thin, for political reasons--that's cartel policy too. Gasoline price is based on a number of factors--not just geological depletion. It's an election year, big Oil refiners are going to keep gasoline prices as low as they can.

[Graeme]

$100 oil: the terrible truth

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll the evidence suggests we are rapidly approaching "peak oil", the point when global production goes into terminal decline for geological reasons. The industry consensus is that world output, excluding that from the Opec producers, will peak in about 2010. It is also widely agreed that Opec has grossly exaggerated the size of its reserves, meaning that global output must also peak soon.

Oil executives have traditionally avoided talk of geological constraints - no doubt mindful of the value of their share options - but now even they admit the industry is in difficulty. A growing number believe output will never exceed 100m barrels per day, compared with 86m today. At present rates of growth, demand will hit that ceiling within about a decade.

[threadbear]

How can anyone say that govts will be blindsided by energy shortages? Am I crazy? Does anyone else see what's abundantly clear to me, here? The corporatocracy will squeeze every last cent they can out of diminishing oil supplies, people will start to panic, and then they will have the "grass roots, eco-mandate" they desire, to build nuke plants. Saves them a lot of hassle with protesters and NIMBYs. If people are freaked out enough, they'll have a further mandate to build the plants using tax dollars along the lines of Public/Private partnerships.

This is what makes me laugh about a lot of peakers. They honestly think the greedy, malignant bastards that run the world aren't all over the peak problem like a wet blanket? Come on!

Check out the date of this article. Do you think maybe the U.S is headed in the same direction? I do.


BBC--Tony Blair on nukes-November 29, 2005

The government is to announce a review of energy policy, including nuclear power, after being urged by business leaders to tackle the UK energy crisis.

Concerns have been growing over future power supplies and rising gas costs.

The BBC's Nick Robinson said despite the prime minister's support, no decision has yet been made on Britain's nuclear future.

Tony Blair's spokesman said: "The prime minister's view is that we need to look at all the options and everybody knows that is what we are going to do."

He said it was important to look at it in terms of the UK's energy security and also "in terms of climate change".


HAVE YOUR SAY
More modern nuclear power stations are certainly the way ahead for many reasons
Roger Cope, Burton upon Trent

Send us your comments
Experts respond
Government Chief Scientist Sir David King told the BBC that a "fresh look" was needed at the situation but denied that any firm decisions had been made ahead of the review.

"My advice has been clear for some time, but I don't believe that decisions have been made, " he said.

Earlier he had urged the government to "give the green light" to more power stations.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4454468.stm

[Twilight]

Great article, thanks for linking. No point buying the paper tomorrow.

I'm liking this. I'm hoping the Guardian has the interest to grab hold of this issue and pursue it with even a quarter of the intensity with which the Independent has been banging the climate change drum.

[Graeme]

John Browne on the Future of Energy

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irst, there is high fossil fuel prices—caused by the coincidence of strong demand and several factors on the supply side, not least a dramatic increase in oil and gas production costs and disciplined OPEC policymaking. Second, there is growing concern about energy security. Fears about short-term supply disruptions and Peak Oil are greatly exaggerated.

But oil and gas resource concentration is real and is leading to geopolitical friction, as some countries use their energy riches as an instrument of foreign policy.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'H')ow can anyone say that govts will be blindsided by energy shortages? Am I crazy?

[threadbear]

You could be right, Twilight. My guess is you're wrong, obviously. I'll lay bets that within a year, you will be reading about nothing but nukes and the groundwork will have begun to construct hundreds of them, in Britain, and the U.S. I'll send you a fruitbasket of your choosing, if I'm wrong. Furthermore, I'll admit I'm a complete fruitcake.

Nuclear Spin:

Welcome to NuclearSpin
The site has been expanded and updated in time for the British government’s second public consultation on its proposal to build a new generation of nuclear power stations that was launched in May 2007.
NuclearSpin was originally launched in response to the British Government’s 12-week consultation on energy in 2006. Earlier this year, the High Court ruled that the Government’s plans to build a new generation of nuclear power stations were “unlawful” and the way it consulted with the public over the decision was “misleading, seriously flawed, manifestly inadequate and procedurally unfair”. Now the British Government is trying again with a new consultation exercise. [1] [2]
As like last time though, it seems the British government has already made up its mind. Months before the first consultation Blair convened a secret meeting at Chequers where informed sources have said that nuclear was given the green light.
Now, The Observer newspaper is reporting that Blair’s successor, Gordon Brown, will also support a new generation of nuclear plants in the UK. [3] What makes this decision politically sensitive, is that Gordon Brown has close family connections to the nuclear industry. His younger brother Andrew Brown works for EDF Energy, the UK subsidiary of EDF, which is one of the leading companies pushing for a nuclear rebuild programme in the UK.
The Labour Government is also speeding up the planning process, making it easier for nuclear power plants to be built. Planning Minister, Yvette Cooper has already had to fight off criticism of "nuclear cronyism" due to her father's links to the nuclear industry too.
So it seems the government has yet again made up its mind to build new nuclear plants, before the public consultation. So what, you might ask, is the actual point of the consultation, apart from the government being seen to be going through the motions of consulting the people. It could be argued it is pure spin.
To help people make up their own mind, NuclearSpin has been updated and expanded.
There are new sections on countries and regions, including Australia, Belgium, Canada, the EU, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom and United States;

http://www.nuclearspin.org/index.php/Main_Page

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I')'ll lay bets that within a year, you will be reading about nothing but nukes and the groundwork will have begun to construct hundreds of them, in Britain, and the U.S.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')My point is, the oil companies had far more pricing power in the past than you and your cronies pouring over the entrails of infrastucture and supply would entertain--and that was accomplished by what you affectionately call "conspiracy" and what most other people call, "business as usual".

[threadbear]

DPeak, The seven sisters collude with each other and they collude with govt. If you don't understand the corrupting force of oil money on the judicial, executive and legislative branches of govt, it's not my problem, but it could become your's. A meaningful discussion about the severity of diminishing supply and how it will play out, is a non-starter if you don't understand the political process/abscess.